DCENTRIES 9TH WOX MAY 3 7F L39900 15000 0 BUN 7 FURLONGS DIRT THOROUGHBRED OPEN 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP CLAIMING 15000-14000 PURSE $39900 (05:30) (12)
Field — 12 Runners
📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings
| BSR Rank | Horse | Avg BSR (top-3) | ML Odds | Days Off | Form | Sim Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 LET'S GO LIAM SPEED LEADER | 80.3 | 3-1 | 37d | ---3-- | 40.0% |
| 2 | 11 PARADISE PERFECT | 79.3 | 8-1 | 149d | ----2- | 1.7% |
| 3 | 7 LUMBERYARD | 78 | 12-1 | 275d | -12223 | 19.6% |
| 4 | 4 GIVEMEMYTHEMEMUSIC | 76.7 | 10-1 | 79d | -2--1 | 9.1% |
| 5 | 8 PRIME PLUS ONE | 76.3 | 8-1 | 189d | ---12- | 1.2% |
| 6 | 10 STARVIN | 76 | 20-1 | 156d | --323- | 1.9% |
| 7 | 12 SOL DE VERANO | 74 | 15-1 | 156d | 2313-3 | 1.4% |
| 8 | 1 YOU AND ME BABY | 72.7 | 6-1 | 142d | 33-1-3 | 7.2% |
| 9 | 5 ALFRED BELLOWS | 71.3 | 8-1 | 142d | -1--- | 17.5% |
| 10 | 6 BLONDINA'S BOY | 69.3 | 20-1 | 149d | 21-122 | 0.0% |
| 11 | 3 YOU'RE SO LUCKY | 65.3 | 20-1 | 280d | --22 | 0.4% |
BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.
Simulation Results
| # | Horse | Win % ↕ | Place % ↕ | Show % ↕ | Avg Finish ↕ | Best ↕ | Worst ↕ | Base Score ↕ | BSR Rank | ⚡ Longshots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 LET'S GO LIAM | 66.89% | 81.52% | 2.35 | 1 | 11 | 81.0 | #1 ≈ | — | |
| 2 | 7 LUMBERYARD | 40.56% | 57.21% | 3.70 | 1 | 11 | 76.1 | #3 ≈ | ⚡ 1957 | |
| 3 | 5 ALFRED BELLOWS | 28.11% | 37.36% | 5.72 | 1 | 11 | 70.0 | #9 ▲ | — | |
| 4 | 4 GIVEMEMYTHEMEMUSIC | 19.79% | 30.30% | 5.74 | 1 | 11 | 69.6 | #4 ≈ | ⚡ 908 | |
| 5 | 1 YOU AND ME BABY | 19.18% | 32.92% | 5.24 | 1 | 11 | 71.3 | #8 ▲ | — | |
| 6 | 10 STARVIN | 6.71% | 14.49% | 6.80 | 1 | 11 | 66.7 | #6 ≈ | ⚡ 186 | |
| 7 | 11 PARADISE PERFECT | 6.25% | 14.81% | 6.30 | 1 | 11 | 68.2 | #2 ▼ | — | |
| 8 | 12 SOL DE VERANO | 5.73% | 14.15% | 6.15 | 1 | 11 | 68.5 | #7 ≈ | ⚡ 143 | |
| 9 | 8 PRIME PLUS ONE | 4.60% | 11.52% | 6.49 | 1 | 11 | 67.7 | #5 ▼ | — | |
| 10 | 3 YOU'RE SO LUCKY | 1.86% | 4.85% | 7.56 | 1 | 11 | 65.0 | #11 ≈ | ⚡ 44 | |
| 11 | 6 BLONDINA'S BOY | 0.32% | 0.87% | 9.97 | 1 | 11 | 55.6 | #10 ≈ | ⚡ 3 |
Win % = (times horse won ÷ 10,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.
🎯 Value Rankings
| # | Horse | ML Odds | ML Implied % | Sim Win % | Place % | Show % | Value Rating | ⚡ Longshot Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 LUMBERYARD LONGSHOT BEST VALUE | 12-1 | 7.7% | 40.56% | 57.21% | 🔥 2.54x | ⚡ 1957 | |
| 2 | 2 LET'S GO LIAM | 3-1 | 25% | 66.89% | 81.52% | ✅ 1.60x | — | |
| 3 | 5 ALFRED BELLOWS | 8-1 | 11.1% | 28.11% | 37.36% | ✅ 1.58x | — | |
| 4 | 4 GIVEMEMYTHEMEMUSIC LONGSHOT | 10-1 | 9.1% | 19.79% | 30.30% | 1.00x | ⚡ 908 | |
| 5 | 1 YOU AND ME BABY | 6-1 | 14.3% | 19.18% | 32.92% | 0.50x | — | |
| 6 | 10 STARVIN LONGSHOT | 20-1 | 4.8% | 6.71% | 14.49% | 0.39x | ⚡ 186 | |
| 7 | 12 SOL DE VERANO LONGSHOT | 15-1 | 6.3% | 5.73% | 14.15% | 0.23x | ⚡ 143 | |
| 8 | 11 PARADISE PERFECT | 8-1 | 11.1% | 6.25% | 14.81% | 0.15x | — | |
| 9 | 8 PRIME PLUS ONE | 8-1 | 11.1% | 4.60% | 11.52% | 0.11x | — | |
| 10 | 3 YOU'RE SO LUCKY LONGSHOT | 20-1 | 4.8% | 1.86% | 4.85% | 0.09x | ⚡ 44 | |
| 11 | 6 BLONDINA'S BOY LONGSHOT | 20-1 | 4.8% | 0.32% | 0.87% | 0.01x | ⚡ 3 |
Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.
🎲 Pure Chance
Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.
| # | Horse | Chance Win% | Sim Win% | Edge | Chance Bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | LET'S GO LIAM | 12.0% | 40.0% | +28.0% | |
| 10 | STARVIN | 11.1% | 1.9% | -9.2% | |
| 8 | PRIME PLUS ONE | 10.7% | 1.2% | -9.5% | |
| 4 | GIVEMEMYTHEMEMUSIC | 9.7% | 9.1% | -0.6% | |
| 11 | PARADISE PERFECT | 8.3% | 1.7% | -6.6% | |
| 7 | LUMBERYARD | 8.0% | 19.6% | +11.6% | |
| 1 | YOU AND ME BABY | 7.9% | 7.2% | -0.7% | |
| 12 | SOL DE VERANO | 7.8% | 1.4% | -6.4% | |
| 5 | ALFRED BELLOWS | 7.1% | 17.5% | +10.4% | |
| 3 | YOU'RE SO LUCKY | 6.5% | 0.4% | -6.1% | |
| 6 | BLONDINA'S BOY | 6.2% | 0.0% | -6.2% |
Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.
🎯 Suggested Picks
- 2 LET'S GO LIAM 40.0% 3-1
- 7 LUMBERYARD 19.6% 12-1
- 5 ALFRED BELLOWS 17.5% 8-1
- 2 LET'S GO LIAM 66.9% 3-1
- 7 LUMBERYARD 40.6% 12-1
- 5 ALFRED BELLOWS 28.1% 8-1
- 2 LET'S GO LIAM 81.5% 3-1
- 7 LUMBERYARD 57.2% 12-1
- 5 ALFRED BELLOWS 37.4% 8-1
🏆 Actual Results
| # | Prog | Horse | Finish | Margin | Odds | Sim Predicted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | GIVEMEMYTHEMEMUSIC | — | — | Sim #4 (9.1% win) | |
| 1 | 5 | ALFRED BELLOWS | — | — | Sim #3 (17.5% win) | |
| 2 | 11 | PARADISE PERFECT | — | — | Sim #7 (1.7% win) | |
| 3 | 10 | STARVIN | — | — | Sim #6 (1.9% win) | |
| 4 | 1 | YOU AND ME BABY | — | — | Sim #5 (7.2% win) | |
| 5 | 7 | LUMBERYARD | — | — | Sim #2 (19.6% win) | |
| 6 | 6 | BLONDINA'S BOY | — | — | Sim #11 (0.0% win) | |
| 7 | 12 | SOL DE VERANO | — | — | Sim #8 (1.4% win) | |
| 8 | 8 | PRIME PLUS ONE | — | — | Sim #9 (1.2% win) | |
| 9 | 3 | YOU'RE SO LUCKY | — | — | Sim #10 (0.4% win) | |
| 10 | 2 | LET'S GO LIAM | — | — | Sim #1 (40.0% win) |
Official winner: GIVEMEMYTHEMEMUSIC