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DSENTRIES 1ST CDX MAY 2 8.5F K120000 0 BUN 1 1/16 MILES DIRT THOROUGHBRED OPEN 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT PURSE $120000 (11:00) (11)

🏟 Churchill Downs 📅 2026-05-02 📏 8½F Dirt Md Sp Wt 💰 $120,000
📡 Fetch History

Field — 11 Runners

1
BHATIA
2.2%
RPR 77
Form -33--
Off 21d
lbs 118
ML 15-1
J SAEZ LUIS
T DAVIS CHRISTOPHER
By MEDAGLIA D'ORO Out of LANGTRY
🥇 2.2% 🥈 8.6% 🥉 19.5% Avg 5.6 ⚡ 223 longshot wins
2
STAKEHOLDER
1.3%
RPR 79
Form -2--
Off 23d
lbs 118
ML 20-1
J HERNANDEZ B J JR
T WILKES IAN R
By AUTHENTIC Out of TOMLIN
🥇 1.3% 🥈 5.4% 🥉 12.9% Avg 6.2 ⚡ 133 longshot wins
3
SILENT WAY
1.5%
RPR 87
Form 13-
Off 30d
lbs 125
ML 4-1
J PRAT FLAVIEN
T EURTON PETER
By MCKINZIE Out of KOALA QUEEN
🥇 1.5% 🥈 7.7% 🥉 21.8% Avg 4.9
4
INGLEBOROUGH
2.6%
RPR 77
Form -
Off 38d
lbs 125
ML 20-1
J GARCIA MARTIN
T ROMANS DALE
By INSTAGRAND Out of LAST KISS
🥇 2.6% 🥈 6.4% 🥉 10.8% Avg 7.9 ⚡ 263 longshot wins
5
GET THEM ROSES
0.0%
RPR 75
Form ---
Off 42d
lbs 118
ML 15-1
J GAFFALIONE TYLER
T WALSH BRENDAN P
By PRACTICAL JOKE Out of BLOSSOM ROSE
🥇 0.0% 🥈 0.2% 🥉 0.6% Avg 8.2 ⚡ 4 longshot wins
6
CROMWELL
0.4%
RPR 85
Form 2--3--3
Off 56d
lbs 125
ML 6-1
J ORTIZ JOSE L
T DEVAUX CHERIE
By QUALITY ROAD Out of BOREALIS NIGHT
🥇 0.4% 🥈 2.0% 🥉 6.2% Avg 6.4
7
TIME TO STRIKE
0.0%
RPR 64
Form ---
Off 41d
lbs 118
ML 20-1
J VELAZQUEZ J R
T CASSE MARK
By NOT THIS TIME Out of STRIKING IMPACT
🥇 0.0% 🥈 0.1% 🥉 0.3% Avg 10.1 ⚡ 3 longshot wins
8
BOURBON DREAM
28.1%
RPR 89
Form 2
Off 35d
lbs 118
ML 5-1
J GUTIERREZ MARIO
T GUTIERREZ FAUSTIO
By QUALITY ROAD Out of THE NIGHTINGALE
🥇 28.1% 🥈 45.8% 🥉 57.1% Avg 3.8
9
WINSTON AVE
10.5%
RPR 90
Form 32-2
Off 28d
lbs 118
ML 9-2
J HERNANDEZ JUAN J
T BAFFERT BOB
By QUALITY ROAD Out of GREAT SISTER DIANE
🥇 10.5% 🥈 37.0% 🥉 65.4% Avg 3.1
10
MIDNIGHT PLAYBOY
7.3%
lbs 118
ML 15-1
J ALVARADO JUNIOR
T MOTT RILEY
By YAUPON Out of RISK PREMIUM
🥇 7.3% 🥈 12.7% 🥉 18.0% Avg 7.7 ⚡ 725 longshot wins
11
POWERSHIFT
46.0%
RPR 90
Form 31
Off 56d
lbs 118
ML 3-1
J ORTIZ IRAD JR
T PLETCHER TODD A
By CONSTITUTION Out of FREE FLYING SOUL
🥇 46.0% 🥈 74.1% 🥉 87.5% Avg 2.0

📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings

Horses ordered by Brisnet Speed Rating (BSR) — the higher the BSR, the faster the horse has run. This is Brisnet's primary selection indicator.
BSR Rank Horse Avg BSR (top-3) ML Odds Days Off Form Sim Win %
1 9 WINSTON AVE SPEED LEADER 90 9-2 28d 32-2 10.5%
2 11 POWERSHIFT 90 3-1 56d 31 46.0%
3 8 BOURBON DREAM 89 5-1 35d 2 28.1%
4 3 SILENT WAY 87 4-1 30d 13- 1.5%
5 6 CROMWELL 85.3 6-1 56d --3--3 0.4%
6 2 STAKEHOLDER 79.7 20-1 23d -2-- 1.3%
7 1 BHATIA 77.7 15-1 21d -33-- 2.2%
8 4 INGLEBOROUGH 77 20-1 38d - 2.6%
9 5 GET THEM ROSES 75.7 15-1 42d --- 0.0%
10 7 TIME TO STRIKE 64 20-1 41d --- 0.0%
11 10 MIDNIGHT PLAYBOY — First starter 15-1 — — 7.3%

BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.

Simulation Results

10,000 runs  ·  Engine v3-trajectory-bounce  ·  2026-05-18 20:01:27
# Horse Win % ↕ Place % ↕ Show % ↕ Avg Finish ↕ Best ↕ Worst ↕ Base Score ↕ BSR Rank ⚡ Longshots
1 11 POWERSHIFT
46.04%
74.09% 87.54% 2.03 1 10 102.4 #2 ≈ —
2 8 BOURBON DREAM
28.12%
45.83% 57.06% 3.79 1 11 95.7 #3 ≈ —
3 9 WINSTON AVE
10.47%
37.00% 65.37% 3.15 1 10 95.3 #1 ≈ —
4 10 MIDNIGHT PLAYBOY
7.25%
12.69% 18.03% 7.70 1 11 73.8 #11 ▲ ⚡ 725
5 4 INGLEBOROUGH
2.63%
6.39% 10.82% 7.87 1 11 74.9 #8 ▲ ⚡ 263
6 1 BHATIA
2.23%
8.64% 19.47% 5.61 1 11 86.3 #7 ≈ ⚡ 223
7 3 SILENT WAY
1.48%
7.72% 21.77% 4.90 1 11 88.6 #4 ▼ —
8 2 STAKEHOLDER
1.33%
5.38% 12.91% 6.22 1 11 84.0 #6 ≈ ⚡ 133
9 6 CROMWELL
0.38%
1.98% 6.15% 6.39 1 11 83.7 #5 ▼ —
10 5 GET THEM ROSES
0.04%
0.17% 0.57% 8.22 1 11 76.8 #9 ≈ ⚡ 4
11 7 TIME TO STRIKE
0.03%
0.11% 0.31% 10.11 1 11 62.0 #10 ≈ ⚡ 3

Win % = (times horse won ÷ 10,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.

🎯 Value Rankings

All horses sorted by Value Rating (Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied%) — highest value at the top. Horses at 10/1+ are flagged as longshots.
# Horse ML Odds ML Implied % Sim Win % Place % Show % Value Rating ⚡ Longshot Wins
1 11 POWERSHIFT 3-1 25%
46.04%
74.09% 87.54% ✅ 1.84x —
2 8 BOURBON DREAM 5-1 16.7%
28.12%
45.83% 57.06% ✅ 1.69x —
3 10 MIDNIGHT PLAYBOY LONGSHOT BEST VALUE 15-1 6.3%
7.25%
12.69% 18.03% 1.16x ⚡ 725
4 9 WINSTON AVE 9-2 18.2%
10.47%
37.00% 65.37% 0.58x —
5 4 INGLEBOROUGH LONGSHOT 20-1 4.8%
2.63%
6.39% 10.82% 0.55x ⚡ 263
6 1 BHATIA LONGSHOT 15-1 6.3%
2.23%
8.64% 19.47% 0.36x ⚡ 223
7 2 STAKEHOLDER LONGSHOT 20-1 4.8%
1.33%
5.38% 12.91% 0.28x ⚡ 133
8 3 SILENT WAY 4-1 20%
1.48%
7.72% 21.77% 0.07x —
9 6 CROMWELL 6-1 14.3%
0.38%
1.98% 6.15% 0.03x —
10 5 GET THEM ROSES LONGSHOT 15-1 6.3%
0.04%
0.17% 0.57% 0.01x ⚡ 4
11 7 TIME TO STRIKE LONGSHOT 20-1 4.8%
0.03%
0.11% 0.31% 0.01x ⚡ 3

Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.

🎲 Pure Chance

If every horse had an equal shot — 11 horses, ~9.1% each

Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.

# Horse Chance Win% Sim Win% Edge Chance Bar
7 TIME TO STRIKE 11.7% 0.0% -11.7%
10 MIDNIGHT PLAYBOY 10.9% 7.3% -3.7%
6 CROMWELL 10.9% 0.4% -10.5%
11 POWERSHIFT 10.4% 46.0% +35.6%
8 BOURBON DREAM 8.7% 28.1% +19.4%
2 STAKEHOLDER 8.0% 1.3% -6.7%
4 INGLEBOROUGH 7.0% 2.6% -4.4%
3 SILENT WAY 7.0% 1.5% -5.5%
5 GET THEM ROSES 7.0% 0.0% -7.0%
1 BHATIA 6.5% 2.2% -4.3%
9 WINSTON AVE 6.4% 10.5% +4.1%

Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.

🎯 Suggested Picks

Based on 10,000 simulation runs
🥇 Top Win Picks
  1. 11 POWERSHIFT 46.0% 3-1
  2. 8 BOURBON DREAM 28.1% 5-1
  3. 9 WINSTON AVE 10.5% 9-2
🥈 Top Place Picks
  1. 11 POWERSHIFT 74.1% 3-1
  2. 8 BOURBON DREAM 45.8% 5-1
  3. 9 WINSTON AVE 37.0% 9-2
🥉 Top Show Picks
  1. 11 POWERSHIFT 87.5% 3-1
  2. 9 WINSTON AVE 65.4% 9-2
  3. 8 BOURBON DREAM 57.1% 5-1
📋 Exacta Box
11-8-9
Box top 3 — covers all combinations
11 POWERSHIFT 8 BOURBON DREAM 9 WINSTON AVE
🎲 Trifecta
11-8-9
Straight: 1st–2nd–3rd by sim rank
11 → 8-9-10
Key POWERSHIFT to win, wheel next 3 for 2nd/3rd
💫 Superfecta
11-8-9-10
Box top 4 — covers all 1st–4th combos
11/8 / 11/8 / 9/10/4 / 9/10/4
Key top 2 in 1st & 2nd; use next 3 in 3rd & 4th

📋 Enter Actual Results

+ Enter Finish Positions
Prog Horse Finish Position Margin (lengths) Final Odds
1 BHATIA
2 STAKEHOLDER
3 SILENT WAY
4 INGLEBOROUGH
5 GET THEM ROSES
6 CROMWELL
7 TIME TO STRIKE
8 BOURBON DREAM
9 WINSTON AVE
10 MIDNIGHT PLAYBOY
11 POWERSHIFT