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DMENTRIES 2ND TAM MAY 3 6F G23000 16000 0 BUN 6 FURLONGS DIRT THOROUGHBRED OPEN 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP MAIDEN CLAIMING 16000-ALL PURSE $23000 (01:05) (7 )

🏟 Tampa Bay Downs 📅 2026-05-03 📏 6F Dirt Md 16000 💰 $23,000
📡 Fetch History

Field — 7 Runners

1
LUCKCREST
2.9%
RPR 53
Form 2----1
Off 16d
lbs 118
ML 30-1
J COTTO P L JR
T OCHOA GERARD
By AUDIBLE Out of I'M THE REASON
🥇 2.9% 🥈 13.2% 🥉 28.0% Avg 4.9 ⚡ 57 longshot wins
2
SIMO AT THE BIG A
67.4%
RPR 77
Form 2--232--
Off 30d
lbs 118
ML 3-5
J MARIN SAMUEL
T O'CONNELL KATHLEEN
By HARD SPUN Out of THREE QUARTER TIME
🥇 67.4% 🥈 91.0% 🥉 97.3% Avg 1.5
3
AMERICAN MELODY
5.4%
RPR 50
Form -
Off 35d
lbs 118
ML 3-1
J GIL CIPRIANO
T RICE KEVIN
By AMERICAN PHAROAH Out of LULLABYE BYE
🥇 5.4% 🥈 22.6% 🥉 40.9% Avg 4.2
4
ASTRIDSHADOWMOON
18.3%
RPR 62
Form -3--
Off 8d
lbs 118
ML 12-1
J SERPA ANGEL
T DRAKE ROBERT
By NEOLITHIC Out of REAL MOON
🥇 18.3% 🥈 36.7% 🥉 47.5% Avg 4.1 ⚡ 365 longshot wins
5
KENRIC
5.3%
RPR 72
Form 2---2---1-
Off 15d
lbs 115
ML 10-1
J FERNANDEZ MARVIN
T DAVIS RICKY N
By TAPITGOLD Out of PRETTY STORM CAT
🥇 5.3% 🥈 25.4% 🥉 45.9% Avg 3.9 ⚡ 106 longshot wins
6
FANTI
0.4%
RPR 59
Form --
Off 8d
lbs 118
ML 8-1
J MARTINEZ GADDIEL A
T ALANIS FRANCISCO
By LEXITONIAN Out of LITTLE MISS ELLIE
🥇 0.4% 🥈 4.6% 🥉 18.4% Avg 4.8
7
NADIR HAN
0.5%
RPR 64
Form -----
Off 8d
lbs 125
ML 15-1
J HESS SARA
T PARRA HERNAN
By NO NAY NEVER Out of AT EASE
🥇 0.5% 🥈 6.7% 🥉 22.2% Avg 4.6 ⚡ 9 longshot wins

📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings

Horses ordered by Brisnet Speed Rating (BSR) — the higher the BSR, the faster the horse has run. This is Brisnet's primary selection indicator.
BSR Rank Horse Avg BSR (top-3) ML Odds Days Off Form Sim Win %
1 2 SIMO AT THE BIG A SPEED LEADER 77 3-5 30d -232-- 67.4%
2 5 KENRIC 72 10-1 15d 2---1- 5.3%
3 7 NADIR HAN 64.7 15-1 8d ----- 0.5%
4 4 ASTRIDSHADOWMOON 62.7 12-1 8d -3-- 18.3%
5 6 FANTI 59.5 8-1 8d -- 0.4%
6 1 LUCKCREST 53 30-1 16d 2----1 2.9%
7 3 AMERICAN MELODY 50 3-1 35d - 5.4%

BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.

Simulation Results

2,000 runs  ·  Engine v3-trajectory-bounce  ·  2026-05-21 16:53:34
# Horse Win % ↕ Place % ↕ Show % ↕ Avg Finish ↕ Best ↕ Worst ↕ Base Score ↕ BSR Rank ⚡ Longshots
1 2 SIMO AT THE BIG A
67.40%
91.00% 97.25% 1.46 1 7 82.0 #1 ≈ —
2 4 ASTRIDSHADOWMOON
18.25%
36.65% 47.45% 4.06 1 7 57.6 #4 ≈ ⚡ 365
3 3 AMERICAN MELODY
5.40%
22.55% 40.90% 4.25 1 7 55.9 #7 ▲ —
4 5 KENRIC
5.30%
25.35% 45.85% 3.94 1 7 58.7 #2 ≈ ⚡ 106
5 1 LUCKCREST
2.85%
13.15% 27.95% 4.87 1 7 51.3 #6 ≈ ⚡ 57
6 7 NADIR HAN
0.45%
6.70% 22.20% 4.59 1 7 54.0 #3 ▼ ⚡ 9
7 6 FANTI
0.35%
4.60% 18.40% 4.85 1 7 52.0 #5 ≈ —

Win % = (times horse won ÷ 2,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.

🎯 Value Rankings

All horses sorted by Value Rating (Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied%) — highest value at the top. Horses at 10/1+ are flagged as longshots.
# Horse ML Odds ML Implied % Sim Win % Place % Show % Value Rating ⚡ Longshot Wins
1 4 ASTRIDSHADOWMOON LONGSHOT BEST VALUE 12-1 7.7%
18.25%
36.65% 47.45% 🔥 2.37x ⚡ 365
2 2 SIMO AT THE BIG A 3-5 62.5%
67.40%
91.00% 97.25% 1.08x —
3 1 LUCKCREST LONGSHOT 30-1 3.2%
2.85%
13.15% 27.95% 0.88x ⚡ 57
4 5 KENRIC LONGSHOT 10-1 9.1%
5.30%
25.35% 45.85% 0.58x ⚡ 106
5 3 AMERICAN MELODY 3-1 25%
5.40%
22.55% 40.90% 0.22x —
6 7 NADIR HAN LONGSHOT 15-1 6.3%
0.45%
6.70% 22.20% 0.07x ⚡ 9
7 6 FANTI 8-1 11.1%
0.35%
4.60% 18.40% 0.03x —

Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.

🎲 Pure Chance

If every horse had an equal shot — 7 horses, ~14.3% each

Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.

# Horse Chance Win% Sim Win% Edge Chance Bar
5 KENRIC 16.4% 5.3% -11.1%
3 AMERICAN MELODY 14.7% 5.4% -9.3%
2 SIMO AT THE BIG A 14.6% 67.4% +52.8%
1 LUCKCREST 14.5% 2.9% -11.7%
6 FANTI 14.5% 0.4% -14.2%
4 ASTRIDSHADOWMOON 14.0% 18.3% +4.3%
7 NADIR HAN 11.7% 0.5% -11.3%

Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.

🎯 Suggested Picks

Based on 2,000 simulation runs
🥇 Top Win Picks
  1. 2 SIMO AT THE BIG A 67.4% 3-5
  2. 4 ASTRIDSHADOWMOON 18.3% 12-1
  3. 3 AMERICAN MELODY 5.4% 3-1
🥈 Top Place Picks
  1. 2 SIMO AT THE BIG A 91.0% 3-5
  2. 4 ASTRIDSHADOWMOON 36.7% 12-1
  3. 5 KENRIC 25.4% 10-1
🥉 Top Show Picks
  1. 2 SIMO AT THE BIG A 97.3% 3-5
  2. 4 ASTRIDSHADOWMOON 47.5% 12-1
  3. 5 KENRIC 45.9% 10-1
📋 Exacta Box
2-4-3
Box top 3 — covers all combinations
2 SIMO AT THE BIG A 4 ASTRIDSHADOWMOON 3 AMERICAN MELODY
🎲 Trifecta
2-4-3
Straight: 1st–2nd–3rd by sim rank
2 → 4-3-5
Key SIMO AT THE BIG A to win, wheel next 3 for 2nd/3rd
💫 Superfecta
2-4-3-5
Box top 4 — covers all 1st–4th combos
2/4 / 2/4 / 3/5/1 / 3/5/1
Key top 2 in 1st & 2nd; use next 3 in 3rd & 4th

🏆 Actual Results

#ProgHorse Finish Margin Odds Sim Predicted
1 4 ASTRIDSHADOWMOON — — Sim #2 (18.3% win)
2 5 KENRIC — — Sim #4 (5.3% win)
3 7 NADIR HAN — — Sim #6 (0.5% win)
4 2 SIMO AT THE BIG A — — Sim #1 (67.4% win)
5 3 AMERICAN MELODY — — Sim #3 (5.4% win)
6 6 FANTI — — Sim #7 (0.4% win)
7 1 LUCKCREST — — Sim #5 (2.9% win)

Official winner: Astridshadowmoon

✏️ Edit Results
Prog Horse Finish Position Margin (lengths) Final Odds
4 ASTRIDSHADOWMOON
5 KENRIC
7 NADIR HAN
2 SIMO AT THE BIG A
3 AMERICAN MELODY
6 FANTI
1 LUCKCREST