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DAENTRIES 3RD CDX MAY 2 8F N134000 0 BUN 1 MILE DIRT THOROUGHBRED OPEN 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING PURSE $134000 (12:05) (14)

🏟 Churchill Downs 📅 2026-05-02 📏 1M Dirt OClm 80000n2x 💰 $134,000
📡 Fetch History

Field — 14 Runners

1
ARRO SMASH
0.9%
RPR 95
Form ---2----3-
Off 153d
lbs 122
ML 15-1
J CORRALES GERARDO
T BAUER PHILIP A
By ARROGATE Out of HENNESEY SMASH
🥇 0.9% 🥈 2.0% 🥉 3.8% Avg 10.2 ⚡ 88 longshot wins
2
VAMOS CARLITOS
0.8%
RPR 87
Form 21-32-31--
Off 44d
lbs 124
ML 15-1
J GAFFALIONE TYLER
T FOLEY GREG
By CATHOLIC BOY Out of GABEIRA
🥇 0.8% 🥈 2.2% 🥉 4.3% Avg 9.2 ⚡ 75 longshot wins
3
SPECIAL CALIBER
0.0%
RPR 82
Form 2-13----
Off 20d
lbs 122
ML 30-1
J MORALES EDGAR
T DOUAIHY MICHEL
By MO TOWN Out of ADAMAS
🥇 0.0% 🥈 0.1% 🥉 0.2% Avg 11.2 ⚡ 2 longshot wins
4
COMPORT
17.9%
RPR 90
Form --2121
Off 29d
lbs 116
ML 15-1
J ORTIZ JOSE L
T KENNEALLY EDDIE
By COLLECTED Out of BARTLETT NARROWS
🥇 17.9% 🥈 37.9% 🥉 55.2% Avg 3.6 ⚡ 1794 longshot wins
5
JOHN HANCOCK
15.1%
RPR 92
Form -11
Off 406d
lbs 122
ML 6-1
J ORTIZ IRAD JR
T COX BRAD H
By CONSTITUTION Out of SCRIBBLING SARAH
🥇 15.1% 🥈 35.3% 🥉 55.8% Avg 3.5
6
WHO DEY
38.5%
RPR 98
Form -131-13112
Off 155d
lbs 122
ML 9-2
J HERNANDEZ B J JR
T DRURY THOMAS JR
By LIAM'S MAP Out of PELIPA
🥇 38.5% 🥈 58.9% 🥉 73.3% Avg 2.7
7
MITOCHONDRIA
0.1%
RPR 75
Form 2---
Off 38d
lbs 124
ML 30-1
J GUTIERREZ MARIO
T STEPHEN ANTHONY
By MEDAGLIA D'ORO Out of FOXY DANSEUR
🥇 0.1% 🥈 0.2% 🥉 0.3% Avg 11.8 ⚡ 7 longshot wins
8
RACING DRIVER
3.1%
RPR 91
Form 1---3---2-
Off 35d
lbs 122
ML 20-1
J MACHADO LUAN
T DELGADO GUSTAVO
By DIALED IN Out of MUNHALL MISS
🥇 3.1% 🥈 8.4% 🥉 15.9% Avg 6.3 ⚡ 312 longshot wins
9
KEEWAYDIN
0.5%
RPR 93
Form 1--3-13
Off 50d
lbs 122
ML 8-1
J TORRES JAIME A
T WALDEN WILLIAM
By INSTAGRAND Out of NOTHING BUT HEART
🥇 0.5% 🥈 1.6% 🥉 3.7% Avg 8.4
10
VIBE
0.6%
RPR 84
Form 11-
Off 49d
lbs 124
ML 6-1
J SAEZ LUIS
T PLETCHER TODD A
By INTO MISCHIEF Out of NONNA MIA
🥇 0.6% 🥈 1.8% 🥉 3.8% Avg 9.0
11
ALEMAN
0.0%
RPR 78
Form 11--13231-
Off 35d
lbs 122
ML 30-1
J SHEEHY DANNY
T JARVIS KATHY
By CARPE DIEM Out of CUP OF JAVA
🥇 0.0% 🥈 0.0% 🥉 0.0% Avg 12.9
12
PRAETOR
18.2%
RPR 95
Form 311113
Off 28d
lbs 122
ML 3-1
J PRAT FLAVIEN
T BROWN CHAD C
By INTO MISCHIEF Out of CURLIN'S APPROVAL
🥇 18.2% 🥈 38.3% 🥉 55.6% Avg 3.5
13
ATTACHE
1.3%
RPR 93
Form 222--32-2-
Off 44d
lbs 122
ML 20-1
J HERNANDEZ JUAN J
T MAKER MICHAEL J
By VIOLENCE Out of RUMINATE
🥇 1.3% 🥈 3.9% 🥉 8.5% Avg 7.1 ⚡ 131 longshot wins
14
BULLARD
3.1%
RPR 94
Form --23311
Off 43d
lbs 122
ML 12-1
J VELAZQUEZ J R
T MCCARTHY MICHAEL W
By GUN RUNNER Out of REVE D'AMOUR
🥇 3.1% 🥈 9.4% 🥉 19.6% Avg 5.5 ⚡ 309 longshot wins

📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings

Horses ordered by Brisnet Speed Rating (BSR) — the higher the BSR, the faster the horse has run. This is Brisnet's primary selection indicator.
BSR Rank Horse Avg BSR (top-3) ML Odds Days Off Form Sim Win %
1 6 WHO DEY SPEED LEADER 98.7 9-2 155d -13112 38.5%
2 12 PRAETOR 95.7 3-1 28d 311113 18.2%
3 1 ARRO SMASH 95 15-1 153d ----3- 0.9%
4 14 BULLARD 94.3 12-1 43d -23311 3.1%
5 13 ATTACHE 93.7 20-1 44d -32-2- 1.3%
6 9 KEEWAYDIN 93.3 8-1 50d --3-13 0.5%
7 5 JOHN HANCOCK 92.7 6-1 406d -11 15.1%
8 8 RACING DRIVER 91.7 20-1 35d 3---2- 3.1%
9 4 COMPORT 90.3 15-1 29d --2121 17.9%
10 2 VAMOS CARLITOS 87 15-1 44d 2-31-- 0.8%
11 10 VIBE 84.3 6-1 49d 11- 0.6%
12 3 SPECIAL CALIBER 82.3 30-1 20d 13---- 0.0%
13 11 ALEMAN 78.7 30-1 35d 13231- 0.0%
14 7 MITOCHONDRIA 75.3 30-1 38d 2--- 0.1%

BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.

Simulation Results

10,000 runs  ·  Engine v3-trajectory-bounce  ·  2026-05-18 20:01:28
# Horse Win % ↕ Place % ↕ Show % ↕ Avg Finish ↕ Best ↕ Worst ↕ Base Score ↕ BSR Rank ⚡ Longshots
1 6 WHO DEY
38.45%
58.93% 73.33% 2.70 1 14 110.3 #1 ≈ —
2 12 PRAETOR
18.18%
38.30% 55.59% 3.55 1 13 107.0 #2 ≈ —
3 4 COMPORT
17.94%
37.90% 55.20% 3.57 1 13 106.9 #9 ▲ ⚡ 1794
4 5 JOHN HANCOCK
15.11%
35.27% 55.82% 3.51 1 13 106.8 #7 ▲ —
5 8 RACING DRIVER
3.12%
8.43% 15.93% 6.33 1 14 99.5 #8 ▲ ⚡ 312
6 14 BULLARD
3.09%
9.36% 19.55% 5.54 1 14 101.4 #4 ≈ ⚡ 309
7 13 ATTACHE
1.31%
3.90% 8.53% 7.13 1 14 97.2 #5 ≈ ⚡ 131
8 1 ARRO SMASH
0.88%
2.01% 3.75% 10.16 1 14 88.2 #3 ▼ ⚡ 88
9 2 VAMOS CARLITOS
0.75%
2.23% 4.33% 9.20 1 14 91.8 #10 ≈ ⚡ 75
10 10 VIBE
0.58%
1.79% 3.78% 9.02 1 14 92.2 #11 ≈ —
11 9 KEEWAYDIN
0.50%
1.57% 3.71% 8.39 1 14 94.2 #6 ▼ —
12 7 MITOCHONDRIA
0.07%
0.18% 0.26% 11.81 1 14 83.6 #14 ≈ ⚡ 7
13 3 SPECIAL CALIBER
0.02%
0.13% 0.22% 11.24 1 14 86.0 #12 ≈ ⚡ 2
14 11 ALEMAN
0.00%
0.00% 0.00% 12.87 5 14 79.5 #13 ≈ —

Win % = (times horse won ÷ 10,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.

🎯 Value Rankings

All horses sorted by Value Rating (Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied%) — highest value at the top. Horses at 10/1+ are flagged as longshots.
# Horse ML Odds ML Implied % Sim Win % Place % Show % Value Rating ⚡ Longshot Wins
1 4 COMPORT LONGSHOT BEST VALUE 15-1 6.3%
17.94%
37.90% 55.20% 🔥 2.87x ⚡ 1794
2 6 WHO DEY 9-2 18.2%
38.45%
58.93% 73.33% 🔥 2.11x —
3 5 JOHN HANCOCK 6-1 14.3%
15.11%
35.27% 55.82% 1.06x —
4 12 PRAETOR 3-1 25%
18.18%
38.30% 55.59% 0.73x —
5 8 RACING DRIVER LONGSHOT 20-1 4.8%
3.12%
8.43% 15.93% 0.66x ⚡ 312
6 14 BULLARD LONGSHOT 12-1 7.7%
3.09%
9.36% 19.55% 0.40x ⚡ 309
7 13 ATTACHE LONGSHOT 20-1 4.8%
1.31%
3.90% 8.53% 0.28x ⚡ 131
8 1 ARRO SMASH LONGSHOT 15-1 6.3%
0.88%
2.01% 3.75% 0.14x ⚡ 88
9 2 VAMOS CARLITOS LONGSHOT 15-1 6.3%
0.75%
2.23% 4.33% 0.12x ⚡ 75
10 9 KEEWAYDIN 8-1 11.1%
0.50%
1.57% 3.71% 0.05x —
11 10 VIBE 6-1 14.3%
0.58%
1.79% 3.78% 0.04x —
12 7 MITOCHONDRIA LONGSHOT 30-1 3.2%
0.07%
0.18% 0.26% 0.02x ⚡ 7
13 3 SPECIAL CALIBER LONGSHOT 30-1 3.2%
0.02%
0.13% 0.22% 0.01x ⚡ 2
14 11 ALEMAN LONGSHOT 30-1 3.2%
0.00%
0.00% 0.00% 0.00x —

Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.

🎲 Pure Chance

If every horse had an equal shot — 14 horses, ~7.1% each

Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.

# Horse Chance Win% Sim Win% Edge Chance Bar
7 MITOCHONDRIA 9.6% 0.1% -9.5%
4 COMPORT 9.1% 17.9% +8.8%
1 ARRO SMASH 9.0% 0.9% -8.1%
12 PRAETOR 8.2% 18.2% +10.0%
3 SPECIAL CALIBER 8.1% 0.0% -8.1%
5 JOHN HANCOCK 7.6% 15.1% +7.5%
13 ATTACHE 6.5% 1.3% -5.2%
10 VIBE 6.1% 0.6% -5.5%
11 ALEMAN 5.7% 0.0% -5.7%
6 WHO DEY 5.6% 38.5% +32.9%
14 BULLARD 5.5% 3.1% -2.4%
2 VAMOS CARLITOS 4.9% 0.8% -4.1%
8 RACING DRIVER 4.7% 3.1% -1.6%
9 KEEWAYDIN 4.7% 0.5% -4.2%

Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.

🎯 Suggested Picks

Based on 10,000 simulation runs
🥇 Top Win Picks
  1. 6 WHO DEY 38.5% 9-2
  2. 12 PRAETOR 18.2% 3-1
  3. 4 COMPORT 17.9% 15-1
🥈 Top Place Picks
  1. 6 WHO DEY 58.9% 9-2
  2. 12 PRAETOR 38.3% 3-1
  3. 4 COMPORT 37.9% 15-1
🥉 Top Show Picks
  1. 6 WHO DEY 73.3% 9-2
  2. 5 JOHN HANCOCK 55.8% 6-1
  3. 12 PRAETOR 55.6% 3-1
📋 Exacta Box
6-12-4
Box top 3 — covers all combinations
6 WHO DEY 12 PRAETOR 4 COMPORT
🎲 Trifecta
6-12-4
Straight: 1st–2nd–3rd by sim rank
6 → 12-4-5
Key WHO DEY to win, wheel next 3 for 2nd/3rd
💫 Superfecta
6-12-4-5
Box top 4 — covers all 1st–4th combos
6/12 / 6/12 / 4/5/8 / 4/5/8
Key top 2 in 1st & 2nd; use next 3 in 3rd & 4th

📋 Enter Actual Results

+ Enter Finish Positions
Prog Horse Finish Position Margin (lengths) Final Odds
1 ARRO SMASH
2 VAMOS CARLITOS
3 SPECIAL CALIBER
4 COMPORT
5 JOHN HANCOCK
6 WHO DEY
7 MITOCHONDRIA
8 RACING DRIVER
9 KEEWAYDIN
10 VIBE
11 ALEMAN
12 PRAETOR
13 ATTACHE
14 BULLARD