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TGENTRIES 5TH CDX MAY 2 5.5F J600000 2 BUN 5 1/2 FURLONGS TURF THOROUGHBRED OPEN 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP GRADE 2 STAKE PURSE $600000 (01:12) (10)

🏟 Churchill Downs 📅 2026-05-02 📏 5½F Turf TurfSprt-G2 💰 $600,000
📡 Fetch History

Field — 10 Runners

1
WENDELSSOHN
11.8%
RPR 100
Form --3-131212
Off 21d
lbs 121
ML 15-1
J HERNANDEZ B J JR
T HARTMAN CHRIS
By MENDELSSOHN Out of GANGBUSTERS
🥇 11.8% 🥈 29.1% 🥉 45.8% Avg 4.0 ⚡ 1178 longshot wins
2
BEAR RIVER
3.5%
RPR 95
Form -33--113-1
Off 28d
lbs 121
ML 30-1
J GRAHAM J
T DESORMEAUX J KEITH
By FLAMEAWAY Out of SIXTYFIVENORTH
🥇 3.5% 🥈 8.9% 🥉 15.5% Avg 6.3 ⚡ 345 longshot wins
3
MY BOY PRINCE
37.1%
RPR 97
Form 113221221-
Off 28d
lbs 125
ML 5-2
J ORTIZ JOSE L
T CASSE MARK
By CAIRO PRINCE Out of HOPPING NOT HOPING
🥇 37.1% 🥈 45.4% 🥉 51.3% Avg 4.4
4
FULL DISCLOSURE
0.0%
RPR 91
Form -2-1-2---2
Off 14d
lbs 121
ML 30-1
J BESCHIZZA ADAM
T JEHALUDI AMZADALI
By CAJUN BREEZE Out of THELADYSAIDNO
🥇 0.0% 🥈 0.0% 🥉 0.1% Avg 9.5 ⚡ 1 longshot wins
5
POSSIBLEMENTE
12.2%
RPR 94
Form 113-1-111-
Off 51d
lbs 121
ML 10-1
J FRANCO MANUEL
T SHARP JOE
By TALE OF EKATI Out of INTERNAL BOURBON
🥇 12.2% 🥈 29.3% 🥉 46.9% Avg 4.0 ⚡ 1219 longshot wins
6
ITS BOURBON THIRTY
0.4%
RPR 92
Form -2112-112-
Off 28d
lbs 121
ML 15-1
J MACHADO LUAN
T O'DWYER JEREMIAH
By OUTWORK Out of SEATTLE ARTIST
🥇 0.4% 🥈 1.3% 🥉 2.8% Avg 8.0 ⚡ 41 longshot wins
7
YELLOW CARD
7.2%
RPR 98
Form 21--2122-1
Off 28d
lbs 121
ML 9-2
J PRAT FLAVIEN
T MCCARTHY MICHAEL W
By LOST TREASURE Out of PARIS GIRL
🥇 7.2% 🥈 16.9% 🥉 27.5% Avg 5.3
8
MONDOGETSBUCKETS
3.0%
RPR 93
Form 322--21111
Off 28d
lbs 121
ML 8-1
J GAFFALIONE TYLER
T BLOCK CHRIS
By OMAHA BEACH Out of MY MISS CHIFF
🥇 3.0% 🥈 9.2% 🥉 18.2% Avg 5.5
9
LITIGATION
14.1%
RPR 97
Form -11-12111-
Off 28d
lbs 121
ML 3-1
J ORTIZ IRAD JR
T LYNCH BRIAN A
By TWIRLING CANDY Out of ARGUE
🥇 14.1% 🥈 30.7% 🥉 44.4% Avg 4.2
10
JOE SHIESTY
10.9%
RPR 95
Form -11-3-1221
Off 28d
lbs 121
ML 6-1
J DE LA CRUZ FERNANDO
T FOSTER ERIC
By AIR FORCE BLUE Out of READY TO UNLEASH
🥇 10.9% 🥈 29.2% 🥉 47.6% Avg 3.9

📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings

Horses ordered by Brisnet Speed Rating (BSR) — the higher the BSR, the faster the horse has run. This is Brisnet's primary selection indicator.
BSR Rank Horse Avg BSR (top-3) ML Odds Days Off Form Sim Win %
1 1 WENDELSSOHN SPEED LEADER 100.3 15-1 21d 131212 11.8%
2 7 YELLOW CARD 98.7 9-2 28d 2122-1 7.2%
3 3 MY BOY PRINCE 97.7 5-2 28d 21221- 37.1%
4 9 LITIGATION 97.7 3-1 28d 12111- 14.1%
5 2 BEAR RIVER 95 30-1 28d -113-1 3.5%
6 10 JOE SHIESTY 95 6-1 28d 3-1221 10.9%
7 5 POSSIBLEMENTE 94.3 10-1 51d 1-111- 12.2%
8 8 MONDOGETSBUCKETS 93.3 8-1 28d -21111 3.0%
9 6 ITS BOURBON THIRTY 92.7 15-1 28d 2-112- 0.4%
10 4 FULL DISCLOSURE 91 30-1 14d -2---2 0.0%

BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.

Simulation Results

10,000 runs  ·  Engine v3-trajectory-bounce  ·  2026-05-18 20:01:28
# Horse Win % ↕ Place % ↕ Show % ↕ Avg Finish ↕ Best ↕ Worst ↕ Base Score ↕ BSR Rank ⚡ Longshots
1 3 MY BOY PRINCE
37.05%
45.42% 51.28% 4.38 1 10 110.8 #3 ≈ —
2 9 LITIGATION
14.05%
30.69% 44.38% 4.21 1 10 109.3 #4 ≈ —
3 5 POSSIBLEMENTE
12.19%
29.29% 46.92% 3.95 1 10 109.9 #7 ▲ ⚡ 1219
4 1 WENDELSSOHN
11.78%
29.07% 45.84% 3.99 1 10 109.8 #1 ▼ ⚡ 1178
5 10 JOE SHIESTY
10.85%
29.19% 47.57% 3.85 1 10 110.2 #6 ≈ —
6 7 YELLOW CARD
7.20%
16.92% 27.48% 5.29 1 10 105.8 #2 ▼ —
7 2 BEAR RIVER
3.45%
8.86% 15.48% 6.33 1 10 102.4 #5 ≈ ⚡ 345
8 8 MONDOGETSBUCKETS
3.01%
9.23% 18.20% 5.52 1 10 105.3 #8 ≈ —
9 6 ITS BOURBON THIRTY
0.41%
1.31% 2.78% 8.02 1 10 96.4 #9 ≈ ⚡ 41
10 4 FULL DISCLOSURE
0.01%
0.02% 0.07% 9.46 1 10 89.1 #10 ≈ ⚡ 1

Win % = (times horse won ÷ 10,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.

🎯 Value Rankings

All horses sorted by Value Rating (Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied%) — highest value at the top. Horses at 10/1+ are flagged as longshots.
# Horse ML Odds ML Implied % Sim Win % Place % Show % Value Rating ⚡ Longshot Wins
1 1 WENDELSSOHN LONGSHOT BEST VALUE 15-1 6.3%
11.78%
29.07% 45.84% ✅ 1.88x ⚡ 1178
2 5 POSSIBLEMENTE LONGSHOT 10-1 9.1%
12.19%
29.29% 46.92% 1.34x ⚡ 1219
3 3 MY BOY PRINCE 5-2 28.6%
37.05%
45.42% 51.28% 1.30x —
4 2 BEAR RIVER LONGSHOT 30-1 3.2%
3.45%
8.86% 15.48% 1.07x ⚡ 345
5 10 JOE SHIESTY 6-1 14.3%
10.85%
29.19% 47.57% 0.76x —
6 9 LITIGATION 3-1 25%
14.05%
30.69% 44.38% 0.56x —
7 7 YELLOW CARD 9-2 18.2%
7.20%
16.92% 27.48% 0.40x —
8 8 MONDOGETSBUCKETS 8-1 11.1%
3.01%
9.23% 18.20% 0.27x —
9 6 ITS BOURBON THIRTY LONGSHOT 15-1 6.3%
0.41%
1.31% 2.78% 0.07x ⚡ 41
10 4 FULL DISCLOSURE LONGSHOT 30-1 3.2%
0.01%
0.02% 0.07% 0.00x ⚡ 1

Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.

🎲 Pure Chance

If every horse had an equal shot — 10 horses, ~10% each

Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.

# Horse Chance Win% Sim Win% Edge Chance Bar
9 LITIGATION 13.0% 14.1% +1.1%
1 WENDELSSOHN 12.5% 11.8% -0.7%
5 POSSIBLEMENTE 12.2% 12.2% 0.0%
7 YELLOW CARD 12.1% 7.2% -4.9%
8 MONDOGETSBUCKETS 11.1% 3.0% -8.1%
2 BEAR RIVER 9.3% 3.5% -5.9%
4 FULL DISCLOSURE 8.9% 0.0% -8.9%
6 ITS BOURBON THIRTY 7.6% 0.4% -7.2%
3 MY BOY PRINCE 7.4% 37.1% +29.7%
10 JOE SHIESTY 7.2% 10.9% +3.6%

Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.

🎯 Suggested Picks

Based on 10,000 simulation runs
🥇 Top Win Picks
  1. 3 MY BOY PRINCE 37.1% 5-2
  2. 9 LITIGATION 14.1% 3-1
  3. 5 POSSIBLEMENTE 12.2% 10-1
🥈 Top Place Picks
  1. 3 MY BOY PRINCE 45.4% 5-2
  2. 9 LITIGATION 30.7% 3-1
  3. 5 POSSIBLEMENTE 29.3% 10-1
🥉 Top Show Picks
  1. 3 MY BOY PRINCE 51.3% 5-2
  2. 10 JOE SHIESTY 47.6% 6-1
  3. 5 POSSIBLEMENTE 46.9% 10-1
📋 Exacta Box
3-9-5
Box top 3 — covers all combinations
3 MY BOY PRINCE 9 LITIGATION 5 POSSIBLEMENTE
🎲 Trifecta
3-9-5
Straight: 1st–2nd–3rd by sim rank
3 → 9-5-1
Key MY BOY PRINCE to win, wheel next 3 for 2nd/3rd
💫 Superfecta
3-9-5-1
Box top 4 — covers all 1st–4th combos
3/9 / 3/9 / 5/1/10 / 5/1/10
Key top 2 in 1st & 2nd; use next 3 in 3rd & 4th

📋 Enter Actual Results

+ Enter Finish Positions
Prog Horse Finish Position Margin (lengths) Final Odds
1 WENDELSSOHN
2 BEAR RIVER
3 MY BOY PRINCE
4 FULL DISCLOSURE
5 POSSIBLEMENTE
6 ITS BOURBON THIRTY
7 YELLOW CARD
8 MONDOGETSBUCKETS
9 LITIGATION
10 JOE SHIESTY