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DNENTRIES 6TH CDX MAY 2 R8F K200000 0 CUN 1 MILE DIRT THOROUGHBRED OPEN 4 YEAR OLDS AND UP NONGRADED STAKE PURSE $200000 (01:53) (11)

🏟 Churchill Downs 📅 2026-05-02 📏 1M Dirt KnicksGoL200k 💰 $200,000
📡 Fetch History

Field — 11 Runners

1
BROTHA KENY
1.9%
RPR 95
Form 3--31---1-
Off 35d
lbs 120
ML 15-1
J FRANCO MANUEL
T D'ANGELO JOSE FRANCISCO
By MO TOWN Out of RARAMURI PRINCESS
🥇 1.9% 🥈 5.5% 🥉 10.1% Avg 7.4 ⚡ 194 longshot wins
2
DRAGOON GUARD
17.4%
RPR 97
Form 2111112111
Off 49d
lbs 118
ML 3-1
J ORTIZ IRAD JR
T COX BRAD H
By ARROGATE Out of FILIMBI
🥇 17.4% 🥈 42.4% 🥉 64.3% Avg 3.1
3
BANJO CHRIS
0.0%
RPR 94
Form 322-1-1---
Off 78d
lbs 118
ML 20-1
J MORALES EDGAR
T WISMER TROY S
By CONSTITUTION Out of STORMY GIGI
🥇 0.0% 🥈 0.1% 🥉 0.2% Avg 9.8 ⚡ 1 longshot wins
4
BE YOU
16.3%
RPR 98
Form 31-21-3121
Off 28d
lbs 118
ML 7-2
J VELAZQUEZ J R
T PLETCHER TODD A
By CURLIN Out of JACARANDA
🥇 16.3% 🥈 36.3% 🥉 53.0% Avg 3.7
5
PRINCE OF POWER
1.3%
RPR 96
Form 1-1-1-1-11
Off 52d
lbs 118
ML 30-1
J GUTIERREZ MARIO
T CAMBRAY ANDRES
By RUNHAPPY Out of DEMIGODDESS
🥇 1.3% 🥈 4.4% 🥉 10.0% Avg 6.5 ⚡ 133 longshot wins
6
TOUR PLAYER
3.5%
RPR 94
Form 1-112313--
Off 49d
lbs 123
ML 4-1
J PRAT FLAVIEN
T BECKMAN D WHITWORTH
By AMERICAN PHAROAH Out of INSHANNITY
🥇 3.5% 🥈 8.9% 🥉 15.3% Avg 6.9
7
WILL TAKE IT
14.2%
RPR 98
Form -132--2223
Off 35d
lbs 123
ML 8-1
J HERNANDEZ B J JR
T STEWART DALLAS
By TAPIT Out of LADY TAKE CHARGE
🥇 14.2% 🥈 34.1% 🥉 52.8% Avg 3.7
8
BERNIN HOT
38.3%
RPR 95
Form 1111111111
Off 63d
lbs 118
ML 30-1
J CURTIS BEN
T CRICHTON ROHAN G
By BERNARDINI Out of LAVENDER BABY
🥇 38.3% 🥈 48.3% 🥉 54.8% Avg 4.3 ⚡ 3829 longshot wins
9
SCOTLAND
1.5%
RPR 97
Form --13233-21
Off 35d
lbs 118
ML 20-1
J SAEZ LUIS
T MOTT WILLIAM I
By GOOD MAGIC Out of GEMSWICK PARK
🥇 1.5% 🥈 4.3% 🥉 9.1% Avg 7.2 ⚡ 152 longshot wins
10
CAPITAL IDEA
4.8%
RPR 96
Form 222-32-213
Off 35d
lbs 118
ML 5-1
J ALVARADO JUNIOR
T MOTT WILLIAM I
By CLASSIC EMPIRE Out of REVER DE VOUS
🥇 4.8% 🥈 13.4% 🥉 25.2% Avg 5.3
11
MOONLIGHT
0.7%
RPR 99
Form ----------
Off 77d
lbs 120
ML 8-1
J ORTIZ JOSE L
T BLOCK CHRIS
By AUDIBLE Out of SUNDOWN
🥇 0.7% 🥈 2.3% 🥉 5.2% Avg 8.1

📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings

Horses ordered by Brisnet Speed Rating (BSR) — the higher the BSR, the faster the horse has run. This is Brisnet's primary selection indicator.
BSR Rank Horse Avg BSR (top-3) ML Odds Days Off Form Sim Win %
1 11 MOONLIGHT SPEED LEADER 99.3 8-1 77d ------ 0.7%
2 4 BE YOU 98.3 7-2 28d 1-3121 16.3%
3 7 WILL TAKE IT 98 8-1 35d --2223 14.2%
4 2 DRAGOON GUARD 97.3 3-1 49d 112111 17.4%
5 9 SCOTLAND 97 20-1 35d 233-21 1.5%
6 10 CAPITAL IDEA 96.7 5-1 35d 32-213 4.8%
7 5 PRINCE OF POWER 96.3 30-1 52d 1-1-11 1.3%
8 8 BERNIN HOT 95.7 30-1 63d 111111 38.3%
9 1 BROTHA KENY 95 15-1 35d 1---1- 1.9%
10 3 BANJO CHRIS 94.3 20-1 78d 1-1--- 0.0%
11 6 TOUR PLAYER 94.3 4-1 49d 2313-- 3.5%

BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.

Simulation Results

10,000 runs  ·  Engine v3-trajectory-bounce  ·  2026-05-18 20:01:29
# Horse Win % ↕ Place % ↕ Show % ↕ Avg Finish ↕ Best ↕ Worst ↕ Base Score ↕ BSR Rank ⚡ Longshots
1 8 BERNIN HOT
38.29%
48.27% 54.78% 4.26 1 11 114.5 #8 ▲ ⚡ 3829
2 2 DRAGOON GUARD
17.41%
42.39% 64.33% 3.14 1 10 114.6 #4 ≈ —
3 4 BE YOU
16.25%
36.29% 52.99% 3.73 1 11 113.2 #2 ≈ —
4 7 WILL TAKE IT
14.19%
34.11% 52.83% 3.67 1 11 113.2 #3 ≈ —
5 10 CAPITAL IDEA
4.80%
13.41% 25.18% 5.33 1 11 108.0 #6 ≈ —
6 6 TOUR PLAYER
3.53%
8.91% 15.29% 6.87 1 11 103.3 #11 ▲ —
7 1 BROTHA KENY
1.94%
5.53% 10.11% 7.38 1 11 101.7 #9 ≈ ⚡ 194
8 9 SCOTLAND
1.52%
4.25% 9.10% 7.18 1 11 102.6 #5 ▼ ⚡ 152
9 5 PRINCE OF POWER
1.33%
4.44% 10.00% 6.55 1 11 104.5 #7 ≈ ⚡ 133
10 11 MOONLIGHT
0.73%
2.34% 5.19% 8.06 1 11 99.5 #1 ▼ —
11 3 BANJO CHRIS
0.01%
0.06% 0.20% 9.82 1 11 93.7 #10 ≈ ⚡ 1

Win % = (times horse won ÷ 10,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.

🎯 Value Rankings

All horses sorted by Value Rating (Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied%) — highest value at the top. Horses at 10/1+ are flagged as longshots.
# Horse ML Odds ML Implied % Sim Win % Place % Show % Value Rating ⚡ Longshot Wins
1 8 BERNIN HOT LONGSHOT BEST VALUE 30-1 3.2%
38.29%
48.27% 54.78% 🔥 11.87x ⚡ 3829
2 7 WILL TAKE IT 8-1 11.1%
14.19%
34.11% 52.83% 1.28x —
3 4 BE YOU 7-2 22.2%
16.25%
36.29% 52.99% 0.73x —
4 2 DRAGOON GUARD 3-1 25%
17.41%
42.39% 64.33% 0.70x —
5 5 PRINCE OF POWER LONGSHOT 30-1 3.2%
1.33%
4.44% 10.00% 0.41x ⚡ 133
6 9 SCOTLAND LONGSHOT 20-1 4.8%
1.52%
4.25% 9.10% 0.32x ⚡ 152
7 1 BROTHA KENY LONGSHOT 15-1 6.3%
1.94%
5.53% 10.11% 0.31x ⚡ 194
8 10 CAPITAL IDEA 5-1 16.7%
4.80%
13.41% 25.18% 0.29x —
9 6 TOUR PLAYER 4-1 20%
3.53%
8.91% 15.29% 0.18x —
10 11 MOONLIGHT 8-1 11.1%
0.73%
2.34% 5.19% 0.07x —
11 3 BANJO CHRIS LONGSHOT 20-1 4.8%
0.01%
0.06% 0.20% 0.00x ⚡ 1

Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.

🎲 Pure Chance

If every horse had an equal shot — 11 horses, ~9.1% each

Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.

# Horse Chance Win% Sim Win% Edge Chance Bar
5 PRINCE OF POWER 11.2% 1.3% -9.9%
1 BROTHA KENY 10.9% 1.9% -9.0%
7 WILL TAKE IT 10.3% 14.2% +3.9%
8 BERNIN HOT 10.2% 38.3% +28.1%
6 TOUR PLAYER 8.6% 3.5% -5.1%
11 MOONLIGHT 7.7% 0.7% -7.0%
4 BE YOU 7.2% 16.3% +9.1%
9 SCOTLAND 7.0% 1.5% -5.5%
3 BANJO CHRIS 7.0% 0.0% -7.0%
10 CAPITAL IDEA 6.9% 4.8% -2.1%
2 DRAGOON GUARD 6.4% 17.4% +11.0%

Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.

🎯 Suggested Picks

Based on 10,000 simulation runs
🥇 Top Win Picks
  1. 8 BERNIN HOT 38.3% 30-1
  2. 2 DRAGOON GUARD 17.4% 3-1
  3. 4 BE YOU 16.3% 7-2
🥈 Top Place Picks
  1. 8 BERNIN HOT 48.3% 30-1
  2. 2 DRAGOON GUARD 42.4% 3-1
  3. 4 BE YOU 36.3% 7-2
🥉 Top Show Picks
  1. 2 DRAGOON GUARD 64.3% 3-1
  2. 8 BERNIN HOT 54.8% 30-1
  3. 4 BE YOU 53.0% 7-2
📋 Exacta Box
8-2-4
Box top 3 — covers all combinations
8 BERNIN HOT 2 DRAGOON GUARD 4 BE YOU
🎲 Trifecta
8-2-4
Straight: 1st–2nd–3rd by sim rank
8 → 2-4-7
Key BERNIN HOT to win, wheel next 3 for 2nd/3rd
💫 Superfecta
8-2-4-7
Box top 4 — covers all 1st–4th combos
8/2 / 8/2 / 4/7/10 / 4/7/10
Key top 2 in 1st & 2nd; use next 3 in 3rd & 4th

📋 Enter Actual Results

+ Enter Finish Positions
Prog Horse Finish Position Margin (lengths) Final Odds
1 BROTHA KENY
2 DRAGOON GUARD
3 BANJO CHRIS
4 BE YOU
5 PRINCE OF POWER
6 TOUR PLAYER
7 WILL TAKE IT
8 BERNIN HOT
9 SCOTLAND
10 CAPITAL IDEA
11 MOONLIGHT