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DGENTRIES 10TH CDX MAY 2 7F K1000000 1 CUN 7 FURLONGS DIRT THOROUGHBRED OPEN 4 YEAR OLDS AND UP GRADE 1 STAKE PURSE $1000000 (04:50) (11)

🏟 Churchill Downs 📅 2026-05-02 📏 7F Dirt CD-G1 💰 $1,000,000
📡 Fetch History

Field — 11 Runners

1
DISCO TIME
7.0%
RPR 99
Form 3111-11
Off 56d
lbs 123
ML 6-1
J VELAZQUEZ J R
T COX BRAD H
By NOT THIS TIME Out of DISCO CHICK
🥇 7.0% 🥈 16.2% 🥉 27.2% Avg 5.5
2
CORNUCOPIAN
5.7%
RPR 101
Form 112-1
Off 34d
lbs 123
ML 7-2
J HERNANDEZ JUAN J
T BAFFERT BOB
By INTO MISCHIEF Out of MAGICAL WORLD
🥇 5.7% 🥈 15.0% 🥉 25.9% Avg 5.5
3
MACHO MUSIC
0.7%
RPR 97
Form ---1122-11
Off 35d
lbs 123
ML 30-1
J CASTELLANO J J
T CRICHTON ROHAN G
By MACLEAN'S MUSIC Out of SOUTHERN GIRL
🥇 0.7% 🥈 2.0% 🥉 4.2% Avg 8.0 ⚡ 65 longshot wins
4
HALL OF FAME
10.3%
RPR 102
Form 2111111131
Off 280d
lbs 123
ML 20-1
J ORTIZ JOSE L
T ASMUSSEN STEVEN M
By GUN RUNNER Out of FLAG DAY
🥇 10.3% 🥈 23.2% 🥉 36.8% Avg 4.8 ⚡ 1025 longshot wins
5
DISRUPTOR
1.0%
RPR 97
Form 11-13
Off 56d
lbs 123
ML 8-1
J ORTIZ IRAD JR
T PLETCHER TODD A
By GUN RUNNER Out of MARGATE GARDENS
🥇 1.0% 🥈 3.1% 🥉 6.1% Avg 8.1
6
KNIGHTSBRIDGE
18.3%
RPR 104
Form 11112311
Off 63d
lbs 123
ML 9-5
J ALVARADO JUNIOR
T MOTT WILLIAM I
By NYQUIST Out of TYBURN BROOK
🥇 18.3% 🥈 40.1% 🥉 58.5% Avg 3.4
7
IMAGINATION
14.2%
RPR 101
Form 121-321--1
Off 77d
lbs 123
ML 6-1
J PRAT FLAVIEN
T BAFFERT BOB
By INTO MISCHIEF Out of MAGICAL FEELING
🥇 14.2% 🥈 30.7% 🥉 45.7% Avg 4.2
8
T O ELVIS
0.7%
Form 11113313
Off 139d
lbs 123
ML 30-1
J SAKAI RYUSEI
T TAKAYANAGI DAISUKE
By VOLATILE Out of STOPSHOPPINGDEBBIE
🥇 0.7% 🥈 1.2% 🥉 1.9% Avg 10.4 ⚡ 67 longshot wins
9
CRAZY MASON
1.3%
RPR 98
Form 2-23-3111-
Off 28d
lbs 123
ML 15-1
J FRANCO MANUEL
T SACCO GREGORY D
By COAL FRONT Out of IZSHELEGAL
🥇 1.3% 🥈 4.1% 🥉 9.1% Avg 7.0 ⚡ 125 longshot wins
10
BANISHING
3.2%
RPR 99
Form 1--2-2-12-
Off 35d
lbs 123
ML 12-1
J GAFFALIONE TYLER
T JACOBSON DAVID
By GHOSTZAPPER Out of DOWAGER
🥇 3.2% 🥈 9.1% 🥉 17.5% Avg 6.0 ⚡ 319 longshot wins
11
POINT DUME
37.8%
RPR 104
Form 1111211-12
Off 28d
lbs 123
ML 15-1
J GONZALEZ EDWIN
T KREISER TIMOTHY C
By INTO MISCHIEF Out of MAYA MALIBU
🥇 37.8% 🥈 55.4% 🥉 67.1% Avg 3.1 ⚡ 3779 longshot wins

📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings

Horses ordered by Brisnet Speed Rating (BSR) — the higher the BSR, the faster the horse has run. This is Brisnet's primary selection indicator.
BSR Rank Horse Avg BSR (top-3) ML Odds Days Off Form Sim Win %
1 6 KNIGHTSBRIDGE SPEED LEADER 104 9-5 63d 112311 18.3%
2 11 POINT DUME 104 15-1 28d 211-12 37.8%
3 4 HALL OF FAME 102 20-1 280d 111131 10.3%
4 7 IMAGINATION 101.7 6-1 77d 321--1 14.2%
5 2 CORNUCOPIAN 101 7-2 34d 112-1 5.7%
6 10 BANISHING 99.7 12-1 35d -2-12- 3.2%
7 1 DISCO TIME 99 6-1 56d 111-11 7.0%
8 9 CRAZY MASON 98.3 15-1 28d -3111- 1.3%
9 3 MACHO MUSIC 97.7 30-1 35d 122-11 0.7%
10 5 DISRUPTOR 97 8-1 56d 11-13 1.0%
11 8 T O ELVIS — First starter 30-1 139d 113313 0.7%

BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.

Simulation Results

10,000 runs  ·  Engine v3-trajectory-bounce  ·  2026-05-18 20:01:30
# Horse Win % ↕ Place % ↕ Show % ↕ Avg Finish ↕ Best ↕ Worst ↕ Base Score ↕ BSR Rank ⚡ Longshots
1 11 POINT DUME
37.79%
55.37% 67.06% 3.10 1 11 114.6 #2 ≈ ⚡ 3779
2 6 KNIGHTSBRIDGE
18.33%
40.08% 58.54% 3.45 1 11 112.3 #1 ≈ —
3 7 IMAGINATION
14.17%
30.69% 45.74% 4.22 1 11 110.5 #4 ≈ —
4 4 HALL OF FAME
10.25%
23.19% 36.81% 4.80 1 11 108.9 #3 ≈ ⚡ 1025
5 1 DISCO TIME
6.99%
16.18% 27.20% 5.52 1 11 107.1 #7 ≈ —
6 2 CORNUCOPIAN
5.69%
14.95% 25.93% 5.47 1 11 107.3 #5 ≈ —
7 10 BANISHING
3.19%
9.13% 17.46% 5.97 1 11 106.0 #6 ≈ ⚡ 319
8 9 CRAZY MASON
1.25%
4.05% 9.09% 6.96 1 11 103.6 #8 ≈ ⚡ 125
9 5 DISRUPTOR
1.02%
3.09% 6.11% 8.14 1 11 99.7 #10 ≈ —
10 8 T O ELVIS
0.67%
1.24% 1.91% 10.42 1 11 80.5 #11 ≈ ⚡ 67
11 3 MACHO MUSIC
0.65%
2.03% 4.15% 7.97 1 11 100.9 #9 ≈ ⚡ 65

Win % = (times horse won ÷ 10,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.

🎯 Value Rankings

All horses sorted by Value Rating (Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied%) — highest value at the top. Horses at 10/1+ are flagged as longshots.
# Horse ML Odds ML Implied % Sim Win % Place % Show % Value Rating ⚡ Longshot Wins
1 11 POINT DUME LONGSHOT BEST VALUE 15-1 6.3%
37.79%
55.37% 67.06% 🔥 6.05x ⚡ 3779
2 4 HALL OF FAME LONGSHOT 20-1 4.8%
10.25%
23.19% 36.81% 🔥 2.15x ⚡ 1025
3 7 IMAGINATION 6-1 14.3%
14.17%
30.69% 45.74% 0.99x —
4 6 KNIGHTSBRIDGE 9-5 35.7%
18.33%
40.08% 58.54% 0.51x —
5 1 DISCO TIME 6-1 14.3%
6.99%
16.18% 27.20% 0.49x —
6 10 BANISHING LONGSHOT 12-1 7.7%
3.19%
9.13% 17.46% 0.41x ⚡ 319
7 2 CORNUCOPIAN 7-2 22.2%
5.69%
14.95% 25.93% 0.26x —
8 8 T O ELVIS LONGSHOT 30-1 3.2%
0.67%
1.24% 1.91% 0.21x ⚡ 67
9 9 CRAZY MASON LONGSHOT 15-1 6.3%
1.25%
4.05% 9.09% 0.20x ⚡ 125
10 3 MACHO MUSIC LONGSHOT 30-1 3.2%
0.65%
2.03% 4.15% 0.20x ⚡ 65
11 5 DISRUPTOR 8-1 11.1%
1.02%
3.09% 6.11% 0.09x —

Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.

🎲 Pure Chance

If every horse had an equal shot — 11 horses, ~9.1% each

Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.

# Horse Chance Win% Sim Win% Edge Chance Bar
4 HALL OF FAME 11.9% 10.3% -1.6%
8 T O ELVIS 11.7% 0.7% -11.0%
11 POINT DUME 10.4% 37.8% +27.4%
10 BANISHING 9.2% 3.2% -6.0%
5 DISRUPTOR 9.2% 1.0% -8.2%
2 CORNUCOPIAN 9.0% 5.7% -3.3%
7 IMAGINATION 8.9% 14.2% +5.3%
9 CRAZY MASON 8.8% 1.3% -7.5%
6 KNIGHTSBRIDGE 7.3% 18.3% +11.0%
3 MACHO MUSIC 6.6% 0.7% -5.9%
1 DISCO TIME 6.5% 7.0% +0.5%

Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.

🎯 Suggested Picks

Based on 10,000 simulation runs
🥇 Top Win Picks
  1. 11 POINT DUME 37.8% 15-1
  2. 6 KNIGHTSBRIDGE 18.3% 9-5
  3. 7 IMAGINATION 14.2% 6-1
🥈 Top Place Picks
  1. 11 POINT DUME 55.4% 15-1
  2. 6 KNIGHTSBRIDGE 40.1% 9-5
  3. 7 IMAGINATION 30.7% 6-1
🥉 Top Show Picks
  1. 11 POINT DUME 67.1% 15-1
  2. 6 KNIGHTSBRIDGE 58.5% 9-5
  3. 7 IMAGINATION 45.7% 6-1
📋 Exacta Box
11-6-7
Box top 3 — covers all combinations
11 POINT DUME 6 KNIGHTSBRIDGE 7 IMAGINATION
🎲 Trifecta
11-6-7
Straight: 1st–2nd–3rd by sim rank
11 → 6-7-4
Key POINT DUME to win, wheel next 3 for 2nd/3rd
💫 Superfecta
11-6-7-4
Box top 4 — covers all 1st–4th combos
11/6 / 11/6 / 7/4/1 / 7/4/1
Key top 2 in 1st & 2nd; use next 3 in 3rd & 4th

📋 Enter Actual Results

+ Enter Finish Positions
Prog Horse Finish Position Margin (lengths) Final Odds
1 DISCO TIME
2 CORNUCOPIAN
3 MACHO MUSIC
4 HALL OF FAME
5 DISRUPTOR
6 KNIGHTSBRIDGE
7 IMAGINATION
8 T O ELVIS
9 CRAZY MASON
10 BANISHING
11 POINT DUME