TCENTRIES 3RD TAM MAY 3 8.5F H26500 10000 0 CUN 1 1/16 MILES TURF THOROUGHBRED OPEN 4 YEAR OLDS AND UP CLAIMING 10000-ALL PURSE $26500 (01:35) (8 )
Field — 8 Runners
📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings
| BSR Rank | Horse | Avg BSR (top-3) | ML Odds | Days Off | Form | Sim Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 CHICO CHARLIE SPEED LEADER | 80.3 | 2-1 | 9d | 2-2-2- | 56.0% |
| 2 | 4 NEW PLEX | 78 | 10-1 | 7d | -2---- | 5.6% |
| 3 | 8 SUPER TIZ | 77 | 3-1 | 7d | --1213 | 20.2% |
| 4 | 1 K PAZ | 76.3 | 6-1 | 18d | --3--- | 1.8% |
| 5 | 2 TONY B | 75.7 | 5-2 | 11d | 3----- | 14.6% |
| 6 | 7 INTOLERABLE | 72.3 | 15-1 | 8d | 1-3-21 | 1.2% |
| 7 | 5 KING NATE | 71.3 | 12-1 | 9d | ---3-- | 0.1% |
| 8 | 3 LITTLE LUKEY | 69.7 | 30-1 | 35d | 1--3-- | 0.6% |
BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.
Simulation Results
| # | Horse | Win % ↕ | Place % ↕ | Show % ↕ | Avg Finish ↕ | Best ↕ | Worst ↕ | Base Score ↕ | BSR Rank | ⚡ Longshots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 CHICO CHARLIE | 78.70% | 90.75% | 1.79 | 1 | 8 | 84.2 | #1 ≈ | — | |
| 2 | 8 SUPER TIZ | 45.90% | 67.95% | 2.93 | 1 | 8 | 78.9 | #3 ≈ | — | |
| 3 | 2 TONY B | 42.25% | 68.50% | 2.94 | 1 | 7 | 78.1 | #5 ≈ | — | |
| 4 | 4 NEW PLEX | 16.80% | 32.95% | 4.23 | 1 | 8 | 72.5 | #2 ≈ | ⚡ 112 | |
| 5 | 1 K PAZ | 9.85% | 25.35% | 4.43 | 1 | 8 | 72.0 | #4 ≈ | — | |
| 6 | 7 INTOLERABLE | 4.45% | 9.20% | 5.67 | 1 | 8 | 66.3 | #6 ≈ | ⚡ 23 | |
| 7 | 3 LITTLE LUKEY | 1.85% | 4.30% | 6.75 | 1 | 8 | 59.7 | #8 ≈ | ⚡ 12 | |
| 8 | 5 KING NATE | 0.20% | 1.00% | 7.26 | 1 | 8 | 57.2 | #7 ≈ | ⚡ 1 |
Win % = (times horse won ÷ 2,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.
🎯 Value Rankings
| # | Horse | ML Odds | ML Implied % | Sim Win % | Place % | Show % | Value Rating | ⚡ Longshot Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 CHICO CHARLIE | 2-1 | 33.3% | 78.70% | 90.75% | ✅ 1.68x | — | |
| 2 | 8 SUPER TIZ | 3-1 | 25% | 45.90% | 67.95% | 0.81x | — | |
| 3 | 4 NEW PLEX LONGSHOT BEST VALUE | 10-1 | 9.1% | 16.80% | 32.95% | 0.62x | ⚡ 112 | |
| 4 | 2 TONY B | 5-2 | 28.6% | 42.25% | 68.50% | 0.51x | — | |
| 5 | 3 LITTLE LUKEY LONGSHOT | 30-1 | 3.2% | 1.85% | 4.30% | 0.19x | ⚡ 12 | |
| 6 | 7 INTOLERABLE LONGSHOT | 15-1 | 6.3% | 4.45% | 9.20% | 0.18x | ⚡ 23 | |
| 7 | 1 K PAZ | 6-1 | 14.3% | 9.85% | 25.35% | 0.13x | — | |
| 8 | 5 KING NATE LONGSHOT | 12-1 | 7.7% | 0.20% | 1.00% | 0.01x | ⚡ 1 |
Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.
🎲 Pure Chance
Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.
| # | Horse | Chance Win% | Sim Win% | Edge | Chance Bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | SUPER TIZ | 15.4% | 20.2% | +4.8% | |
| 7 | INTOLERABLE | 15.1% | 1.2% | -14.0% | |
| 6 | CHICO CHARLIE | 14.8% | 56.0% | +41.2% | |
| 3 | LITTLE LUKEY | 14.5% | 0.6% | -13.9% | |
| 1 | K PAZ | 13.5% | 1.8% | -11.7% | |
| 4 | NEW PLEX | 13.1% | 5.6% | -7.5% | |
| 2 | TONY B | 11.0% | 14.6% | +3.6% | |
| 5 | KING NATE | 10.5% | 0.1% | -10.5% |
Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.
🎯 Suggested Picks
- 6 CHICO CHARLIE 56.0% 2-1
- 8 SUPER TIZ 20.2% 3-1
- 2 TONY B 14.6% 5-2
- 6 CHICO CHARLIE 78.7% 2-1
- 8 SUPER TIZ 45.9% 3-1
- 2 TONY B 42.3% 5-2
- 6 CHICO CHARLIE 90.8% 2-1
- 2 TONY B 68.5% 5-2
- 8 SUPER TIZ 68.0% 3-1
🏆 Actual Results
| # | Prog | Horse | Finish | Margin | Odds | Sim Predicted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | TONY B | — | — | Sim #3 (14.6% win) | |
| 2 | 1 | K PAZ | — | — | Sim #5 (1.8% win) | |
| 8 | 8 | SUPER TIZ | — | — | Sim #2 (20.2% win) | |
| — | 3 | LITTLE LUKEY | — | — | Sim #7 (0.6% win) | |
| — | 4 | NEW PLEX | — | — | Sim #4 (5.6% win) | |
| — | 5 | KING NATE | — | — | Sim #8 (0.1% win) | |
| — | 6 | CHICO CHARLIE | — | — | Sim #1 (56.0% win) | |
| — | 7 | INTOLERABLE | — | — | Sim #6 (1.2% win) |
Official winner: TONY B