DSENTRIES 14TH CDX MAY 2 7F N120000 0 BUN 7 FURLONGS DIRT THOROUGHBRED OPEN 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT PURSE $120000 (08:33) (14)
Field — 14 Runners
📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings
| BSR Rank | Horse | Avg BSR (top-3) | ML Odds | Days Off | Form | Sim Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 GREAT MOMENT SPEED LEADER | 82 | 12-1 | 22d | 2--3-- | 1.9% |
| 2 | 8 FIND NO FAULT | 79 | 9-2 | 34d | 2 | 8.5% |
| 3 | 6 PRIZE PICK | 78.7 | 12-1 | 29d | 23-12 | 6.1% |
| 4 | 10 CHIANTI TOWN | 78.5 | 20-1 | 42d | -- | 0.1% |
| 5 | 2 BESTBALL | 75 | 30-1 | 42d | 32-3- | 0.2% |
| 6 | 13 NOBLE ANTHEM | 73.5 | 20-1 | 13d | -- | 0.0% |
| 7 | 12 BIG BRACIOLE | 68 | 30-1 | 23d | 3 | 0.4% |
| 8 | 1 BOYLSTON | — First starter | 10-1 | — | — | 10.7% |
| 9 | 3 INTERROGATOR | — First starter | 6-1 | — | — | 17.0% |
| 10 | 4 SLEEPING WARRIOR | — First starter | 15-1 | — | — | 5.4% |
| 11 | 5 DON'S WINNER | — First starter | 8-1 | — | — | 14.2% |
| 12 | 7 ACT OF PARLIAMENT | — First starter | 6-1 | — | — | 15.8% |
| 13 | 9 BIG JAKE | — First starter | 8-1 | — | — | 10.4% |
| 14 | 14 BRAVE PILOT | — First starter | 8-1 | — | — | 9.4% |
BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.
Simulation Results
| # | Horse | Win % ↕ | Place % ↕ | Show % ↕ | Avg Finish ↕ | Best ↕ | Worst ↕ | Base Score ↕ | BSR Rank | ⚡ Longshots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 INTERROGATOR | 28.63% | 37.29% | 6.03 | 1 | 14 | 86.2 | #9 ▲ | — | |
| 2 | 7 ACT OF PARLIAMENT | 27.25% | 36.35% | 6.20 | 1 | 14 | 85.1 | #12 ▲ | — | |
| 3 | 5 DON'S WINNER | 24.63% | 33.23% | 6.48 | 1 | 14 | 83.9 | #11 ▲ | — | |
| 4 | 1 BOYLSTON | 19.55% | 27.27% | 7.17 | 1 | 14 | 80.4 | #8 ▲ | ⚡ 1067 | |
| 5 | 9 BIG JAKE | 19.79% | 27.18% | 7.24 | 1 | 14 | 80.4 | #13 ▲ | — | |
| 6 | 14 BRAVE PILOT | 17.90% | 24.87% | 7.50 | 1 | 14 | 78.8 | #14 ▲ | — | |
| 7 | 8 FIND NO FAULT | 19.70% | 30.92% | 5.87 | 1 | 14 | 85.6 | #2 ▼ | — | |
| 8 | 6 PRIZE PICK | 22.35% | 44.70% | 3.88 | 1 | 11 | 91.9 | #3 ▼ | ⚡ 605 | |
| 9 | 4 SLEEPING WARRIOR | 10.56% | 15.67% | 8.80 | 1 | 14 | 71.8 | #10 ≈ | ⚡ 535 | |
| 10 | 11 GREAT MOMENT | 7.05% | 16.05% | 5.91 | 1 | 14 | 84.3 | #1 ▼ | ⚡ 190 | |
| 11 | 12 BIG BRACIOLE | 1.38% | 2.80% | 10.74 | 1 | 14 | 63.9 | #7 ▼ | ⚡ 43 | |
| 12 | 2 BESTBALL | 0.87% | 2.35% | 10.84 | 1 | 14 | 63.6 | #5 ▼ | ⚡ 21 | |
| 13 | 10 CHIANTI TOWN | 0.28% | 1.14% | 8.33 | 1 | 14 | 75.6 | #4 ▼ | ⚡ 5 | |
| 14 | 13 NOBLE ANTHEM | 0.06% | 0.18% | 10.03 | 1 | 14 | 69.8 | #6 ▼ | ⚡ 1 |
Win % = (times horse won ÷ 10,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.
🎯 Value Rankings
| # | Horse | ML Odds | ML Implied % | Sim Win % | Place % | Show % | Value Rating | ⚡ Longshot Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 DON'S WINNER | 8-1 | 11.1% | 24.63% | 33.23% | 1.28x | — | |
| 2 | 3 INTERROGATOR | 6-1 | 14.3% | 28.63% | 37.29% | 1.19x | — | |
| 3 | 1 BOYLSTON LONGSHOT BEST VALUE | 10-1 | 9.1% | 19.55% | 27.27% | 1.17x | ⚡ 1067 | |
| 4 | 7 ACT OF PARLIAMENT | 6-1 | 14.3% | 27.25% | 36.35% | 1.11x | — | |
| 5 | 9 BIG JAKE | 8-1 | 11.1% | 19.79% | 27.18% | 0.94x | — | |
| 6 | 4 SLEEPING WARRIOR LONGSHOT | 15-1 | 6.3% | 10.56% | 15.67% | 0.86x | ⚡ 535 | |
| 7 | 14 BRAVE PILOT | 8-1 | 11.1% | 17.90% | 24.87% | 0.85x | — | |
| 8 | 6 PRIZE PICK LONGSHOT | 12-1 | 7.7% | 22.35% | 44.70% | 0.79x | ⚡ 605 | |
| 9 | 8 FIND NO FAULT | 9-2 | 18.2% | 19.70% | 30.92% | 0.47x | — | |
| 10 | 11 GREAT MOMENT LONGSHOT | 12-1 | 7.7% | 7.05% | 16.05% | 0.25x | ⚡ 190 | |
| 11 | 12 BIG BRACIOLE LONGSHOT | 30-1 | 3.2% | 1.38% | 2.80% | 0.13x | ⚡ 43 | |
| 12 | 2 BESTBALL LONGSHOT | 30-1 | 3.2% | 0.87% | 2.35% | 0.07x | ⚡ 21 | |
| 13 | 10 CHIANTI TOWN LONGSHOT | 20-1 | 4.8% | 0.28% | 1.14% | 0.01x | ⚡ 5 | |
| 14 | 13 NOBLE ANTHEM LONGSHOT | 20-1 | 4.8% | 0.06% | 0.18% | 0.00x | ⚡ 1 |
Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.
🎲 Pure Chance
Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.
| # | Horse | Chance Win% | Sim Win% | Edge | Chance Bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | PRIZE PICK | 9.7% | 6.1% | -3.6% | |
| 1 | BOYLSTON | 9.6% | 10.7% | +1.1% | |
| 12 | BIG BRACIOLE | 8.0% | 0.4% | -7.6% | |
| 13 | NOBLE ANTHEM | 7.2% | 0.0% | -7.2% | |
| 8 | FIND NO FAULT | 6.9% | 8.5% | +1.6% | |
| 5 | DON'S WINNER | 6.5% | 14.2% | +7.7% | |
| 9 | BIG JAKE | 6.3% | 10.4% | +4.1% | |
| 14 | BRAVE PILOT | 6.1% | 9.4% | +3.3% | |
| 10 | CHIANTI TOWN | 5.9% | 0.1% | -5.9% | |
| 4 | SLEEPING WARRIOR | 5.4% | 5.4% | 0.0% | |
| 11 | GREAT MOMENT | 5.3% | 1.9% | -3.4% | |
| 3 | INTERROGATOR | 5.2% | 17.0% | +11.8% | |
| 2 | BESTBALL | 4.9% | 0.2% | -4.7% | |
| 7 | ACT OF PARLIAMENT | 4.5% | 15.8% | +11.3% |
Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.
🎯 Suggested Picks
- 3 INTERROGATOR 17.0% 6-1
- 7 ACT OF PARLIAMENT 15.8% 6-1
- 5 DON'S WINNER 14.2% 8-1
- 3 INTERROGATOR 28.6% 6-1
- 7 ACT OF PARLIAMENT 27.3% 6-1
- 5 DON'S WINNER 24.6% 8-1
- 6 PRIZE PICK 44.7% 12-1
- 3 INTERROGATOR 37.3% 6-1
- 7 ACT OF PARLIAMENT 36.4% 6-1