DSENTRIES 5TH RPX MAY 1 J22500 0 AON 330.00 FURLONGS DIRT QUARTER HORSE OPEN 2 YEAR OLDS MAIDEN PURSE $22500 (07:48) (10)
Field — 10 Runners
📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings
| BSR Rank | Horse | Avg BSR (top-3) | ML Odds | Days Off | Form | Sim Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 HES RUSTLESS SPEED LEADER | 86 | 5-1 | 40d | 2 | 29.1% |
| 2 | 1 AJ ON FIRE | 84 | 2-1 | 43d | 2 | 22.9% |
| 3 | 6 WILD AND FOOSE | 78 | 6-1 | 28d | 3 | 8.4% |
| 4 | 3 HES UNBEATABLE | 73 | 4-1 | 29d | 3 | 4.8% |
| 5 | 2 SIX JETZ | 71 | 12-1 | 43d | - | 2.3% |
| 6 | 4 WAPY EXPRESS | — First starter | 15-1 | — | — | 5.8% |
| 7 | 7 VIRTUAL ESCAPE | — First starter | 10-1 | — | — | 8.4% |
| 8 | 8 GFR BELLES DYNASTY | — First starter | 10-1 | — | — | 9.2% |
| 9 | 9 CHASING ONE EAGLE | — First starter | 15-1 | — | — | 5.3% |
| 10 | 10 UNCLE DIZZLE FASHIZL | — First starter | 20-1 | — | — | 3.8% |
BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.
Simulation Results
| # | Horse | Win % ↕ | Place % ↕ | Show % ↕ | Avg Finish ↕ | Best ↕ | Worst ↕ | Base Score ↕ | BSR Rank | ⚡ Longshots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 HES RUSTLESS | 50.57% | 67.44% | 2.99 | 1 | 10 | 92.7 | #1 ≈ | — | |
| 2 | 1 AJ ON FIRE | 43.88% | 60.42% | 3.35 | 1 | 10 | 89.9 | #2 ≈ | — | |
| 3 | 8 GFR BELLES DYNASTY | 17.47% | 25.76% | 5.82 | 1 | 10 | 72.5 | #8 ▲ | ⚡ 920 | |
| 4 | 6 WILD AND FOOSE | 20.01% | 33.86% | 4.78 | 1 | 10 | 79.9 | #3 ≈ | — | |
| 5 | 7 VIRTUAL ESCAPE | 16.70% | 25.32% | 5.94 | 1 | 10 | 71.3 | #7 ≈ | ⚡ 838 | |
| 6 | 4 WAPY EXPRESS | 12.64% | 19.54% | 6.43 | 1 | 10 | 67.6 | #6 ≈ | ⚡ 584 | |
| 7 | 9 CHASING ONE EAGLE | 10.97% | 17.77% | 6.61 | 1 | 10 | 66.3 | #9 ≈ | ⚡ 534 | |
| 8 | 3 HES UNBEATABLE | 13.01% | 23.40% | 5.54 | 1 | 10 | 75.0 | #4 ▼ | — | |
| 9 | 10 UNCLE DIZZLE FASHIZL | 8.40% | 13.80% | 7.07 | 1 | 10 | 62.6 | #10 ≈ | ⚡ 376 | |
| 10 | 2 SIX JETZ | 6.35% | 12.69% | 6.49 | 1 | 10 | 68.6 | #5 ▼ | ⚡ 229 |
Win % = (times horse won ÷ 10,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.
🎯 Value Rankings
| # | Horse | ML Odds | ML Implied % | Sim Win % | Place % | Show % | Value Rating | ⚡ Longshot Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 HES RUSTLESS | 5-1 | 16.7% | 50.57% | 67.44% | ✅ 1.75x | — | |
| 2 | 8 GFR BELLES DYNASTY LONGSHOT BEST VALUE | 10-1 | 9.1% | 17.47% | 25.76% | 1.01x | ⚡ 920 | |
| 3 | 4 WAPY EXPRESS LONGSHOT | 15-1 | 6.3% | 12.64% | 19.54% | 0.93x | ⚡ 584 | |
| 4 | 7 VIRTUAL ESCAPE LONGSHOT | 10-1 | 9.1% | 16.70% | 25.32% | 0.92x | ⚡ 838 | |
| 5 | 9 CHASING ONE EAGLE LONGSHOT | 15-1 | 6.3% | 10.97% | 17.77% | 0.85x | ⚡ 534 | |
| 6 | 10 UNCLE DIZZLE FASHIZL LONGSHOT | 20-1 | 4.8% | 8.40% | 13.80% | 0.79x | ⚡ 376 | |
| 7 | 1 AJ ON FIRE | 2-1 | 33.3% | 43.88% | 60.42% | 0.69x | — | |
| 8 | 6 WILD AND FOOSE | 6-1 | 14.3% | 20.01% | 33.86% | 0.59x | — | |
| 9 | 2 SIX JETZ LONGSHOT | 12-1 | 7.7% | 6.35% | 12.69% | 0.30x | ⚡ 229 | |
| 10 | 3 HES UNBEATABLE | 4-1 | 20% | 13.01% | 23.40% | 0.24x | — |
Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.
🎲 Pure Chance
Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.
| # | Horse | Chance Win% | Sim Win% | Edge | Chance Bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | GFR BELLES DYNASTY | 12.4% | 9.2% | -3.2% | |
| 7 | VIRTUAL ESCAPE | 12.2% | 8.4% | -3.8% | |
| 3 | HES UNBEATABLE | 12.0% | 4.8% | -7.2% | |
| 5 | HES RUSTLESS | 10.3% | 29.1% | +18.8% | |
| 4 | WAPY EXPRESS | 10.1% | 5.8% | -4.3% | |
| 1 | AJ ON FIRE | 10.0% | 22.9% | +12.9% | |
| 10 | UNCLE DIZZLE FASHIZL | 9.1% | 3.8% | -5.3% | |
| 9 | CHASING ONE EAGLE | 8.9% | 5.3% | -3.6% | |
| 6 | WILD AND FOOSE | 8.8% | 8.4% | -0.4% | |
| 2 | SIX JETZ | 8.4% | 2.3% | -6.1% |
Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.
🎯 Suggested Picks
- 5 HES RUSTLESS 29.1% 5-1
- 1 AJ ON FIRE 22.9% 2-1
- 8 GFR BELLES DYNASTY 9.2% 10-1
- 5 HES RUSTLESS 50.6% 5-1
- 1 AJ ON FIRE 43.9% 2-1
- 6 WILD AND FOOSE 20.0% 6-1
- 5 HES RUSTLESS 67.4% 5-1
- 1 AJ ON FIRE 60.4% 2-1
- 6 WILD AND FOOSE 33.9% 6-1