DRENTRIES 7TH RPX MAY 1 F13500 0 BUN 250.00 FURLONGS DIRT QUARTER HORSE OPEN 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP STARTER ALLOWANCE PURSE $13500 (08:42) (6 )
Field — 6 Runners
📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings
| BSR Rank | Horse | Avg BSR (top-3) | ML Odds | Days Off | Form | Sim Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 JESS ALITTLE FANCY SPEED LEADER | 95.3 | 10-1 | 33d | 2----1 | 8.5% |
| 2 | 1 JLC SIMON SAYS RUN | 90 | 8-1 | 15d | 31111- | 21.8% |
| 3 | 3 EYESA CANDY GUY | 88.3 | 6-1 | 21d | -2-2-2 | 5.0% |
| 4 | 6 STOLIN HOME BREW | 87.7 | 2-1 | 15d | 111--3 | 21.1% |
| 5 | 2 PYC FURY JM | 86.3 | 4-5 | 15d | 113132 | 41.7% |
| 6 | 5 REDNECK FUN | 79.7 | 20-1 | 8d | ------ | 1.9% |
BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.
Simulation Results
| # | Horse | Win % ↕ | Place % ↕ | Show % ↕ | Avg Finish ↕ | Best ↕ | Worst ↕ | Base Score ↕ | BSR Rank | ⚡ Longshots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 PYC FURY JM | 75.06% | 92.48% | 1.92 | 1 | 6 | 106.7 | #5 ▲ | — | |
| 2 | 1 JLC SIMON SAYS RUN | 47.88% | 71.94% | 2.71 | 1 | 6 | 102.1 | #2 ≈ | — | |
| 3 | 6 STOLIN HOME BREW | 34.57% | 48.26% | 3.44 | 1 | 6 | 97.1 | #4 ≈ | — | |
| 4 | 4 JESS ALITTLE FANCY | 20.05% | 35.59% | 3.90 | 1 | 6 | 94.2 | #1 ▼ | ⚡ 847 | |
| 5 | 3 EYESA CANDY GUY | 18.22% | 43.80% | 3.63 | 1 | 6 | 96.7 | #3 ≈ | — | |
| 6 | 5 REDNECK FUN | 4.22% | 7.93% | 5.40 | 1 | 6 | 77.3 | #6 ≈ | ⚡ 192 |
Win % = (times horse won ÷ 10,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.
🎯 Value Rankings
| # | Horse | ML Odds | ML Implied % | Sim Win % | Place % | Show % | Value Rating | ⚡ Longshot Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 JLC SIMON SAYS RUN | 8-1 | 11.1% | 47.88% | 71.94% | ✅ 1.97x | — | |
| 2 | 4 JESS ALITTLE FANCY LONGSHOT BEST VALUE | 10-1 | 9.1% | 20.05% | 35.59% | 0.93x | ⚡ 847 | |
| 3 | 2 PYC FURY JM | 4-5 | 55.6% | 75.06% | 92.48% | 0.75x | — | |
| 4 | 6 STOLIN HOME BREW | 2-1 | 33.3% | 34.57% | 48.26% | 0.63x | — | |
| 5 | 5 REDNECK FUN LONGSHOT | 20-1 | 4.8% | 4.22% | 7.93% | 0.40x | ⚡ 192 | |
| 6 | 3 EYESA CANDY GUY | 6-1 | 14.3% | 18.22% | 43.80% | 0.35x | — |
Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.
🎲 Pure Chance
Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.
| # | Horse | Chance Win% | Sim Win% | Edge | Chance Bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JLC SIMON SAYS RUN | 18.3% | 21.8% | +3.5% | |
| 6 | STOLIN HOME BREW | 17.4% | 21.1% | +3.7% | |
| 5 | REDNECK FUN | 16.3% | 1.9% | -14.4% | |
| 2 | PYC FURY JM | 16.1% | 41.7% | +25.6% | |
| 3 | EYESA CANDY GUY | 15.8% | 5.0% | -10.8% | |
| 4 | JESS ALITTLE FANCY | 14.8% | 8.5% | -6.3% |
Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.
🎯 Suggested Picks
- 2 PYC FURY JM 41.7% 4-5
- 1 JLC SIMON SAYS RUN 21.8% 8-1
- 6 STOLIN HOME BREW 21.1% 2-1
- 2 PYC FURY JM 75.1% 4-5
- 1 JLC SIMON SAYS RUN 47.9% 8-1
- 6 STOLIN HOME BREW 34.6% 2-1
- 2 PYC FURY JM 92.5% 4-5
- 1 JLC SIMON SAYS RUN 71.9% 8-1
- 6 STOLIN HOME BREW 48.3% 2-1