DNENTRIES 1ST DED MAY 1 STATE-BRED H10000 0 AOC 330.00 FURLONGS DIRT QUARTER HORSE COLTS AND GELDINGS 2 YEAR OLDS TRIALS PURSE $10000 (04:45) (8 )
Field — 8 Runners
📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings
| BSR Rank | Horse | Avg BSR (top-3) | ML Odds | Days Off | Form | Sim Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 SHARPEST IMAGE SPEED LEADER | 94 | 2-1 | 34d | 32 | 34.6% |
| 2 | 3 MDA FIVE BAR ROCKET | 92 | 3-1 | 54d | 3 | 16.2% |
| 3 | 5 LAZARUS | 84 | 5-1 | 55d | 1 | 12.4% |
| 4 | 7 HIGH ENDD | 83 | 9-2 | 54d | 1 | 14.0% |
| 5 | 6 GIVE ME A WILD CARD | 67 | 15-1 | 36d | - | 1.0% |
| 6 | 1 BRIGADIERE | — First starter | 10-1 | — | — | 8.0% |
| 7 | 2 CORONITO | — First starter | 15-1 | — | — | 5.2% |
| 8 | 8 LOVE ME SOME RC | — First starter | 8-1 | — | — | 8.7% |
BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.
Simulation Results
| # | Horse | Win % ↕ | Place % ↕ | Show % ↕ | Avg Finish ↕ | Best ↕ | Worst ↕ | Base Score ↕ | BSR Rank | ⚡ Longshots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 SHARPEST IMAGE | 70.71% | 90.62% | 2.07 | 1 | 7 | 103.1 | #1 ≈ | — | |
| 2 | 3 MDA FIVE BAR ROCKET | 32.26% | 49.80% | 3.61 | 1 | 8 | 92.9 | #2 ≈ | — | |
| 3 | 7 HIGH ENDD | 28.77% | 46.22% | 3.77 | 1 | 8 | 91.5 | #4 ≈ | — | |
| 4 | 5 LAZARUS | 25.31% | 42.90% | 3.96 | 1 | 8 | 89.7 | #3 ≈ | — | |
| 5 | 8 LOVE ME SOME RC | 15.88% | 24.40% | 5.19 | 1 | 8 | 78.0 | #8 ▲ | — | |
| 6 | 1 BRIGADIERE | 14.39% | 22.83% | 5.34 | 1 | 8 | 76.9 | #6 ≈ | ⚡ 802 | |
| 7 | 2 CORONITO | 9.88% | 16.54% | 5.82 | 1 | 8 | 71.4 | #7 ≈ | ⚡ 521 | |
| 8 | 6 GIVE ME A WILD CARD | 2.80% | 6.69% | 6.25 | 1 | 8 | 70.1 | #5 ▼ | ⚡ 95 |
Win % = (times horse won ÷ 10,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.
🎯 Value Rankings
| # | Horse | ML Odds | ML Implied % | Sim Win % | Place % | Show % | Value Rating | ⚡ Longshot Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 SHARPEST IMAGE | 2-1 | 33.3% | 70.71% | 90.62% | 1.04x | — | |
| 2 | 1 BRIGADIERE LONGSHOT BEST VALUE | 10-1 | 9.1% | 14.39% | 22.83% | 0.88x | ⚡ 802 | |
| 3 | 2 CORONITO LONGSHOT | 15-1 | 6.3% | 9.88% | 16.54% | 0.83x | ⚡ 521 | |
| 4 | 8 LOVE ME SOME RC | 8-1 | 11.1% | 15.88% | 24.40% | 0.78x | — | |
| 5 | 7 HIGH ENDD | 9-2 | 18.2% | 28.77% | 46.22% | 0.77x | — | |
| 6 | 5 LAZARUS | 5-1 | 16.7% | 25.31% | 42.90% | 0.74x | — | |
| 7 | 3 MDA FIVE BAR ROCKET | 3-1 | 25% | 32.26% | 49.80% | 0.65x | — | |
| 8 | 6 GIVE ME A WILD CARD LONGSHOT | 15-1 | 6.3% | 2.80% | 6.69% | 0.15x | ⚡ 95 |
Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.
🎲 Pure Chance
Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.
| # | Horse | Chance Win% | Sim Win% | Edge | Chance Bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | HIGH ENDD | 13.7% | 14.0% | +0.3% | |
| 3 | MDA FIVE BAR ROCKET | 13.6% | 16.2% | +2.5% | |
| 5 | LAZARUS | 12.9% | 12.4% | -0.6% | |
| 6 | GIVE ME A WILD CARD | 12.7% | 1.0% | -11.8% | |
| 1 | BRIGADIERE | 12.1% | 8.0% | -4.1% | |
| 4 | SHARPEST IMAGE | 10.9% | 34.6% | +23.7% | |
| 2 | CORONITO | 9.8% | 5.2% | -4.6% | |
| 8 | LOVE ME SOME RC | 9.6% | 8.7% | -0.9% |
Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.
🎯 Suggested Picks
- 4 SHARPEST IMAGE 34.6% 2-1
- 3 MDA FIVE BAR ROCKET 16.2% 3-1
- 7 HIGH ENDD 14.0% 9-2
- 4 SHARPEST IMAGE 70.7% 2-1
- 3 MDA FIVE BAR ROCKET 32.3% 3-1
- 7 HIGH ENDD 28.8% 9-2
- 4 SHARPEST IMAGE 90.6% 2-1
- 3 MDA FIVE BAR ROCKET 49.8% 3-1
- 7 HIGH ENDD 46.2% 9-2