DNENTRIES 2ND DED MAY 1 STATE-BRED H10000 0 AOC 330.00 FURLONGS DIRT QUARTER HORSE COLTS AND GELDINGS 2 YEAR OLDS TRIALS PURSE $10000 (05:10) (8 )
Field — 8 Runners
📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings
| BSR Rank | Horse | Avg BSR (top-3) | ML Odds | Days Off | Form | Sim Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 MDA SWEET BAR CARTEL SPEED LEADER | 92 | 7-2 | 55d | 1 | 26.2% |
| 2 | 7 AWESOME EAGLE V | 91.5 | 9-5 | 34d | -1 | 23.0% |
| 3 | 1 EPYPHANY | 84 | 9-2 | 35d | -3 | 1.2% |
| 4 | 3 EL IMPOSTOR | — First starter | 12-1 | — | — | 8.3% |
| 5 | 4 TREN POLITICO | — First starter | 10-1 | — | — | 9.9% |
| 6 | 5 ANOTHER WILD CARTEL | — First starter | 6-1 | — | — | 15.4% |
| 7 | 6 FABULOUS FAST DASH | — First starter | 12-1 | — | — | 6.5% |
| 8 | 8 INSPYRATIONAL | — First starter | 8-1 | — | — | 9.5% |
BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.
Simulation Results
| # | Horse | Win % ↕ | Place % ↕ | Show % ↕ | Avg Finish ↕ | Best ↕ | Worst ↕ | Base Score ↕ | BSR Rank | ⚡ Longshots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 MDA SWEET BAR CARTEL | 48.14% | 64.79% | 3.03 | 1 | 8 | 100.5 | #1 ≈ | — | |
| 2 | 7 AWESOME EAGLE V | 50.64% | 72.60% | 2.75 | 1 | 8 | 101.2 | #2 ≈ | — | |
| 3 | 5 ANOTHER WILD CARTEL | 27.38% | 38.72% | 4.45 | 1 | 8 | 88.9 | #6 ▲ | — | |
| 4 | 4 TREN POLITICO | 18.87% | 28.37% | 5.09 | 1 | 8 | 83.1 | #5 ≈ | ⚡ 991 | |
| 5 | 8 INSPYRATIONAL | 18.45% | 28.11% | 5.11 | 1 | 8 | 82.7 | #8 ▲ | — | |
| 6 | 3 EL IMPOSTOR | 15.59% | 23.76% | 5.41 | 1 | 8 | 79.9 | #4 ≈ | ⚡ 828 | |
| 7 | 6 FABULOUS FAST DASH | 13.46% | 21.03% | 5.60 | 1 | 8 | 78.1 | #7 ≈ | ⚡ 652 | |
| 8 | 1 EPYPHANY | 7.47% | 22.62% | 4.56 | 1 | 8 | 88.7 | #3 ▼ | — |
Win % = (times horse won ÷ 10,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.
🎯 Value Rankings
| # | Horse | ML Odds | ML Implied % | Sim Win % | Place % | Show % | Value Rating | ⚡ Longshot Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 MDA SWEET BAR CARTEL | 7-2 | 22.2% | 48.14% | 64.79% | 1.18x | — | |
| 2 | 4 TREN POLITICO LONGSHOT BEST VALUE | 10-1 | 9.1% | 18.87% | 28.37% | 1.09x | ⚡ 991 | |
| 3 | 5 ANOTHER WILD CARTEL | 6-1 | 14.3% | 27.38% | 38.72% | 1.08x | — | |
| 4 | 3 EL IMPOSTOR LONGSHOT | 12-1 | 7.7% | 15.59% | 23.76% | 1.08x | ⚡ 828 | |
| 5 | 8 INSPYRATIONAL | 8-1 | 11.1% | 18.45% | 28.11% | 0.85x | — | |
| 6 | 6 FABULOUS FAST DASH LONGSHOT | 12-1 | 7.7% | 13.46% | 21.03% | 0.85x | ⚡ 652 | |
| 7 | 7 AWESOME EAGLE V | 9-5 | 35.7% | 50.64% | 72.60% | 0.65x | — | |
| 8 | 1 EPYPHANY | 9-2 | 18.2% | 7.47% | 22.62% | 0.06x | — |
Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.
🎲 Pure Chance
Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.
| # | Horse | Chance Win% | Sim Win% | Edge | Chance Bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | ANOTHER WILD CARTEL | 15.3% | 15.4% | +0.1% | |
| 8 | INSPYRATIONAL | 15.3% | 9.5% | -5.8% | |
| 6 | FABULOUS FAST DASH | 13.9% | 6.5% | -7.4% | |
| 2 | MDA SWEET BAR CARTEL | 12.1% | 26.2% | +14.1% | |
| 7 | AWESOME EAGLE V | 12.1% | 23.0% | +10.9% | |
| 4 | TREN POLITICO | 11.6% | 9.9% | -1.7% | |
| 1 | EPYPHANY | 11.3% | 1.2% | -10.1% | |
| 3 | EL IMPOSTOR | 10.5% | 8.3% | -2.2% |
Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.
🎯 Suggested Picks
- 2 MDA SWEET BAR CARTEL 26.2% 7-2
- 7 AWESOME EAGLE V 23.0% 9-5
- 5 ANOTHER WILD CARTEL 15.4% 6-1
- 7 AWESOME EAGLE V 50.6% 9-5
- 2 MDA SWEET BAR CARTEL 48.1% 7-2
- 5 ANOTHER WILD CARTEL 27.4% 6-1
- 7 AWESOME EAGLE V 72.6% 9-5
- 2 MDA SWEET BAR CARTEL 64.8% 7-2
- 5 ANOTHER WILD CARTEL 38.7% 6-1