DNENTRIES 3RD DED MAY 1 STATE-BRED I10000 0 AOC 330.00 FURLONGS DIRT QUARTER HORSE COLTS AND GELDINGS 2 YEAR OLDS TRIALS PURSE $10000 (05:35) (9 )
Field — 9 Runners
📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings
| BSR Rank | Horse | Avg BSR (top-3) | ML Odds | Days Off | Form | Sim Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 HEY HAY WHAT YA SAY SPEED LEADER | 89 | 3-1 | 54d | 1 | 27.0% |
| 2 | 6 SAN LORENZO CASH | 88 | 9-2 | 54d | 2 | 10.9% |
| 3 | 3 MAN FOR COS | 87 | 5-1 | 54d | 1 | 21.1% |
| 4 | 9 LIL IVORY LEGACY | 85 | 6-1 | 54d | - | 3.2% |
| 5 | 8 APOLLITICAL LATINO | 78.5 | 6-1 | 36d | -3 | 0.7% |
| 6 | 1 RC TOO | — First starter | 20-1 | — | — | 4.8% |
| 7 | 4 IS LEAVIN HOT | — First starter | 12-1 | — | — | 6.7% |
| 8 | 5 JESS A NATIVE ROGUE | — First starter | 7-2 | — | — | 22.8% |
| 9 | 7 BLUE LEAVING YOU | — First starter | 20-1 | — | — | 2.8% |
BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.
Simulation Results
| # | Horse | Win % ↕ | Place % ↕ | Show % ↕ | Avg Finish ↕ | Best ↕ | Worst ↕ | Base Score ↕ | BSR Rank | ⚡ Longshots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 HEY HAY WHAT YA SAY | 49.74% | 65.80% | 3.05 | 1 | 9 | 98.8 | #1 ≈ | — | |
| 2 | 5 JESS A NATIVE ROGUE | 37.79% | 49.47% | 4.06 | 1 | 9 | 92.0 | #8 ▲ | — | |
| 3 | 3 MAN FOR COS | 41.47% | 59.11% | 3.41 | 1 | 9 | 95.5 | #3 ≈ | — | |
| 4 | 6 SAN LORENZO CASH | 25.33% | 41.08% | 4.32 | 1 | 9 | 88.9 | #2 ≈ | — | |
| 5 | 4 IS LEAVIN HOT | 14.25% | 21.81% | 5.99 | 1 | 9 | 76.0 | #7 ≈ | ⚡ 669 | |
| 6 | 1 RC TOO | 10.57% | 16.81% | 6.47 | 1 | 9 | 71.8 | #6 ≈ | ⚡ 477 | |
| 7 | 9 LIL IVORY LEGACY | 9.35% | 18.34% | 5.77 | 1 | 9 | 79.0 | #4 ▼ | — | |
| 8 | 7 BLUE LEAVING YOU | 6.99% | 11.66% | 6.95 | 1 | 9 | 67.2 | #9 ≈ | ⚡ 276 | |
| 9 | 8 APOLLITICAL LATINO | 4.51% | 15.92% | 4.98 | 1 | 9 | 84.7 | #5 ▼ | — |
Win % = (times horse won ÷ 10,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.
🎯 Value Rankings
| # | Horse | ML Odds | ML Implied % | Sim Win % | Place % | Show % | Value Rating | ⚡ Longshot Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 MAN FOR COS | 5-1 | 16.7% | 41.47% | 59.11% | 1.27x | — | |
| 2 | 2 HEY HAY WHAT YA SAY | 3-1 | 25% | 49.74% | 65.80% | 1.08x | — | |
| 3 | 5 JESS A NATIVE ROGUE | 7-2 | 22.2% | 37.79% | 49.47% | 1.03x | — | |
| 4 | 1 RC TOO LONGSHOT BEST VALUE | 20-1 | 4.8% | 10.57% | 16.81% | 1.00x | ⚡ 477 | |
| 5 | 4 IS LEAVIN HOT LONGSHOT | 12-1 | 7.7% | 14.25% | 21.81% | 0.87x | ⚡ 669 | |
| 6 | 6 SAN LORENZO CASH | 9-2 | 18.2% | 25.33% | 41.08% | 0.60x | — | |
| 7 | 7 BLUE LEAVING YOU LONGSHOT | 20-1 | 4.8% | 6.99% | 11.66% | 0.58x | ⚡ 276 | |
| 8 | 9 LIL IVORY LEGACY | 6-1 | 14.3% | 9.35% | 18.34% | 0.23x | — | |
| 9 | 8 APOLLITICAL LATINO | 6-1 | 14.3% | 4.51% | 15.92% | 0.05x | — |
Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.
🎲 Pure Chance
Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.
| # | Horse | Chance Win% | Sim Win% | Edge | Chance Bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RC TOO | 14.0% | 4.8% | -9.2% | |
| 6 | SAN LORENZO CASH | 13.9% | 10.9% | -3.0% | |
| 4 | IS LEAVIN HOT | 13.0% | 6.7% | -6.3% | |
| 2 | HEY HAY WHAT YA SAY | 12.5% | 27.0% | +14.5% | |
| 5 | JESS A NATIVE ROGUE | 12.4% | 22.8% | +10.4% | |
| 9 | LIL IVORY LEGACY | 12.4% | 3.2% | -9.2% | |
| 8 | APOLLITICAL LATINO | 9.4% | 0.7% | -8.7% | |
| 7 | BLUE LEAVING YOU | 8.4% | 2.8% | -5.6% | |
| 3 | MAN FOR COS | 8.1% | 21.1% | +13.0% |
Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.
🎯 Suggested Picks
- 2 HEY HAY WHAT YA SAY 27.0% 3-1
- 5 JESS A NATIVE ROGUE 22.8% 7-2
- 3 MAN FOR COS 21.1% 5-1
- 2 HEY HAY WHAT YA SAY 49.7% 3-1
- 3 MAN FOR COS 41.5% 5-1
- 5 JESS A NATIVE ROGUE 37.8% 7-2
- 2 HEY HAY WHAT YA SAY 65.8% 3-1
- 3 MAN FOR COS 59.1% 5-1
- 5 JESS A NATIVE ROGUE 49.5% 7-2