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DNENTRIES 6TH DED MAY 1 STATE-BRED I10000 0 AOC 330.00 FURLONGS DIRT QUARTER HORSE COLTS AND GELDINGS 2 YEAR OLDS TRIALS PURSE $10000 (06:50) (9 )

🏟 Delta Downs 📅 2026-05-01 📏 330Y Dirt Trial 💰 $10,000
📡 Fetch History

Field — 9 Runners

1
MDA SWIFT BAR
4.3%
lbs 124
ML 15-1
J GARCIA FLAVIO
T OROZCO ORLANDO
By FIVE BAR CARTEL Out of GET SWIFT
🥇 4.3% 🥈 10.2% 🥉 17.6% Avg 6.3 ⚡ 433 longshot wins
2
RED RUNNIN TRAIN
40.1%
RPR 87
Form 1-
Off 35d
lbs 124
ML 5-2
J CASTANEDA NOE
T LOPEZ JOSE U
By FREIGHTTRAIN B Out of RCV SHEZA CLASSYDASH
🥇 40.1% 🥈 69.4% 🥉 85.9% Avg 2.1
3
HES DASHIN TWO
17.6%
RPR 75
Form 2
Off 48d
lbs 124
ML 5-1
J GARCIA JORGE JAVIER
T MORALES EDUARDO L
By ONE DASHING EAGLE Out of FASTDASHING LASSIE
🥇 17.6% 🥈 39.9% 🥉 60.5% Avg 3.4
4
FIRST DOWN FREIGHT
13.1%
lbs 124
ML 9-2
J RODRIGUEZ LEONARDO
T CALAIS PHILIP JR
By FREIGHTTRAIN B Out of VALIANT ENERGY
🥇 13.1% 🥈 25.8% 🥉 38.5% Avg 4.7
5
MR WASHINGTON
6.6%
lbs 124
ML 8-1
J VARGAS FEDERICO
T HAYWOOD VANN
By APOLLITICAL BLOOD Out of TIME FOR THE SENATOR
🥇 6.6% 🥈 14.2% 🥉 23.5% Avg 5.7
6
IVORY FLASH STONE
1.1%
RPR 70
Form -
Off 54d
lbs 124
ML 6-1
J RODRIGUEZ EVERARDO
T TREJO MARTIN
By IVORY JAMES Out of DARK FLASH SPECIAL
🥇 1.1% 🥈 4.0% 🥉 9.3% Avg 6.5
7
GOLDEN SCOOP
15.9%
lbs 124
ML 7-2
J LUNA UBALDO
T JOURDAN PRESTON
By GOLD HEART EAGLE V Out of SCOOP THERE IT IS
🥇 15.9% 🥈 29.6% 🥉 42.5% Avg 4.4
8
THAT FAST EAGLE
0.4%
RPR 73
Form --
Off 35d
lbs 124
ML 15-1
J GARCIA JUAN FRANCISCO JR
T BROOKS ANDRE
By ONE DASHING EAGLE Out of RL MAKENZIE
🥇 0.4% 🥈 3.7% 🥉 14.5% Avg 5.1 ⚡ 43 longshot wins
9
PK SILVER STREAK
0.8%
RPR 65
Form --
Off 42d
lbs 124
ML 20-1
J ALVAREZ ARTURO
T CAMPOS FRANCISCO SR
By RIP TIDE Out of SASS THAT CHICK
🥇 0.8% 🥈 3.2% 🥉 7.7% Avg 6.8 ⚡ 83 longshot wins

📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings

Horses ordered by Brisnet Speed Rating (BSR) — the higher the BSR, the faster the horse has run. This is Brisnet's primary selection indicator.
BSR Rank Horse Avg BSR (top-3) ML Odds Days Off Form Sim Win %
1 2 RED RUNNIN TRAIN SPEED LEADER 87.5 5-2 35d 1- 40.1%
2 3 HES DASHIN TWO 75 5-1 48d 2 17.6%
3 8 THAT FAST EAGLE 73.5 15-1 35d -- 0.4%
4 6 IVORY FLASH STONE 70 6-1 54d - 1.1%
5 9 PK SILVER STREAK 65 20-1 42d -- 0.8%
6 1 MDA SWIFT BAR — First starter 15-1 — — 4.3%
7 4 FIRST DOWN FREIGHT — First starter 9-2 — — 13.1%
8 5 MR WASHINGTON — First starter 8-1 — — 6.6%
9 7 GOLDEN SCOOP — First starter 7-2 — — 15.9%

BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.

Simulation Results

10,000 runs  ·  Engine v3-trajectory-bounce  ·  2026-05-18 20:01:27
# Horse Win % ↕ Place % ↕ Show % ↕ Avg Finish ↕ Best ↕ Worst ↕ Base Score ↕ BSR Rank ⚡ Longshots
1 2 RED RUNNIN TRAIN
40.14%
69.41% 85.94% 2.14 1 9 96.5 #1 ≈ —
2 3 HES DASHIN TWO
17.59%
39.92% 60.51% 3.36 1 9 86.9 #2 ≈ —
3 7 GOLDEN SCOOP
15.93%
29.56% 42.52% 4.42 1 9 79.8 #9 ▲ —
4 4 FIRST DOWN FREIGHT
13.08%
25.82% 38.52% 4.71 1 9 77.3 #7 ▲ —
5 5 MR WASHINGTON
6.56%
14.21% 23.45% 5.72 1 9 69.2 #8 ▲ —
6 1 MDA SWIFT BAR
4.33%
10.20% 17.62% 6.32 1 9 63.3 #6 ≈ ⚡ 433
7 6 IVORY FLASH STONE
1.11%
4.03% 9.26% 6.50 1 9 63.6 #4 ▼ —
8 9 PK SILVER STREAK
0.83%
3.19% 7.69% 6.76 1 9 61.9 #5 ▼ ⚡ 83
9 8 THAT FAST EAGLE
0.43%
3.66% 14.49% 5.08 1 9 74.3 #3 ▼ ⚡ 43

Win % = (times horse won ÷ 10,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.

🎯 Value Rankings

All horses sorted by Value Rating (Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied%) — highest value at the top. Horses at 10/1+ are flagged as longshots.
# Horse ML Odds ML Implied % Sim Win % Place % Show % Value Rating ⚡ Longshot Wins
1 2 RED RUNNIN TRAIN 5-2 28.6%
40.14%
69.41% 85.94% 1.40x —
2 3 HES DASHIN TWO 5-1 16.7%
17.59%
39.92% 60.51% 1.06x —
3 7 GOLDEN SCOOP 7-2 22.2%
15.93%
29.56% 42.52% 0.72x —
4 4 FIRST DOWN FREIGHT 9-2 18.2%
13.08%
25.82% 38.52% 0.72x —
5 1 MDA SWIFT BAR LONGSHOT BEST VALUE 15-1 6.3%
4.33%
10.20% 17.62% 0.69x ⚡ 433
6 5 MR WASHINGTON 8-1 11.1%
6.56%
14.21% 23.45% 0.59x —
7 9 PK SILVER STREAK LONGSHOT 20-1 4.8%
0.83%
3.19% 7.69% 0.17x ⚡ 83
8 6 IVORY FLASH STONE 6-1 14.3%
1.11%
4.03% 9.26% 0.08x —
9 8 THAT FAST EAGLE LONGSHOT 15-1 6.3%
0.43%
3.66% 14.49% 0.07x ⚡ 43

Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.

🎲 Pure Chance

If every horse had an equal shot — 9 horses, ~11.1% each

Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.

# Horse Chance Win% Sim Win% Edge Chance Bar
2 RED RUNNIN TRAIN 13.3% 40.1% +26.8%
6 IVORY FLASH STONE 11.4% 1.1% -10.3%
8 THAT FAST EAGLE 11.3% 0.4% -10.9%
1 MDA SWIFT BAR 10.7% 4.3% -6.4%
5 MR WASHINGTON 10.5% 6.6% -3.9%
3 HES DASHIN TWO 10.3% 17.6% +7.3%
9 PK SILVER STREAK 10.0% 0.8% -9.2%
4 FIRST DOWN FREIGHT 9.8% 13.1% +3.3%
7 GOLDEN SCOOP 9.0% 15.9% +6.9%

Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.

🎯 Suggested Picks

Based on 10,000 simulation runs
🥇 Top Win Picks
  1. 2 RED RUNNIN TRAIN 40.1% 5-2
  2. 3 HES DASHIN TWO 17.6% 5-1
  3. 7 GOLDEN SCOOP 15.9% 7-2
🥈 Top Place Picks
  1. 2 RED RUNNIN TRAIN 69.4% 5-2
  2. 3 HES DASHIN TWO 39.9% 5-1
  3. 7 GOLDEN SCOOP 29.6% 7-2
🥉 Top Show Picks
  1. 2 RED RUNNIN TRAIN 85.9% 5-2
  2. 3 HES DASHIN TWO 60.5% 5-1
  3. 7 GOLDEN SCOOP 42.5% 7-2
📋 Exacta Box
2-3-7
Box top 3 — covers all combinations
2 RED RUNNIN TRAIN 3 HES DASHIN TWO 7 GOLDEN SCOOP
🎲 Trifecta
2-3-7
Straight: 1st–2nd–3rd by sim rank
2 → 3-7-4
Key RED RUNNIN TRAIN to win, wheel next 3 for 2nd/3rd
💫 Superfecta
2-3-7-4
Box top 4 — covers all 1st–4th combos
2/3 / 2/3 / 7/4/5 / 7/4/5
Key top 2 in 1st & 2nd; use next 3 in 3rd & 4th

📋 Enter Actual Results

+ Enter Finish Positions
Prog Horse Finish Position Margin (lengths) Final Odds
1 MDA SWIFT BAR
2 RED RUNNIN TRAIN
3 HES DASHIN TWO
4 FIRST DOWN FREIGHT
5 MR WASHINGTON
6 IVORY FLASH STONE
7 GOLDEN SCOOP
8 THAT FAST EAGLE
9 PK SILVER STREAK