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DCENTRIES 5TH TAM MAY 3 5.5F I21000 10000 0 BUN 5 1/2 FURLONGS DIRT THOROUGHBRED OPEN 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP CLAIMING 10000-ALL PURSE $21000 (02:35) (9 )

🏟 Tampa Bay Downs 📅 2026-05-03 📏 5½F Dirt Clm 10000n2l 💰 $21,000
📡 Fetch History

Field — 9 Runners

1
COERCIVE
5.1%
RPR 75
Form 3-23-3----
Off 11d
lbs 123
ML 2-1
J MARIN SAMUEL
T RICHARDS RENALDO
By BUCCHERO Out of BOSTON MAGGIE
🥇 5.1% 🥈 16.7% 🥉 32.8% Avg 4.4
2
LADY KHOZ
26.9%
RPR 75
Form --2122-223
Off 14d
lbs 111
ML 15-1
J GONZALEZ CESAR
T RYAN DEREK S
By KHOZAN Out of MAJESTIC ANNA
🥇 26.9% 🥈 46.3% 🥉 60.9% Avg 3.2 ⚡ 537 longshot wins
3
GRAY BEAST
14.8%
RPR 69
Form ---12----
Off 22d
lbs 116
ML 7-2
J RODRIGUEZ ISRAEL O
T RICHARDS RENALDO
By VALIANT MINISTER Out of PARADISE CELESTE
🥇 14.8% 🥈 33.5% 🥉 52.9% Avg 3.6
4
HE'S SIDE EYED
0.6%
RPR 69
Form --------2-
Off 18d
lbs 113
ML 6-1
J FERNANDEZ MARVIN
T TORRES PABLO R
By FIRST DUDE Out of EVELYN'S DREAM
🥇 0.6% 🥈 2.7% 🥉 7.8% Avg 6.3
5
CHEQUERA
6.9%
RPR 69
Form --1---
Off 11d
lbs 125
ML 10-1
J MENESES MARCOS
T DRAKE ROBERT
By CURLIN'S HONOR Out of GO DANICA
🥇 6.9% 🥈 16.9% 🥉 29.5% Avg 5.1 ⚡ 137 longshot wins
6
MILA'S WISH
24.4%
RPR 77
Form -------2-1
Off 92d
lbs 123
ML 6-1
J GOLIBRZUCH S
T YATES MICHAEL
By CAJUN BREEZE Out of LITTLE RED FROG
🥇 24.4% 🥈 40.7% 🥉 51.7% Avg 3.9
7
FIRE BARON
6.0%
RPR 71
Form 12-3------
Off 15d
lbs 125
ML 6-1
J MARTINEZ GADDIEL A
T ELLEBRACHT GARY
By TEMPLE CITY Out of SAPHIRIA
🥇 6.0% 🥈 13.0% 🥉 19.4% Avg 6.2
8
IL VAGABUNDO
11.9%
RPR 65
Form --1----
Off 60d
lbs 116
ML 15-1
J GIL CIPRIANO
T CORDERO-LOPEZ ALEXIS
By MITOLE Out of PRINCESS DOM
🥇 11.9% 🥈 23.2% 🥉 34.8% Avg 4.8 ⚡ 237 longshot wins
9
OH' WHAT A DAY
3.8%
RPR 50
Form -1-
Off 18d
lbs 125
ML 15-1
J HO WESLEY
T BENNETT GERALD S
By GUNNEVERA Out of DAY BY DAY
🥇 3.8% 🥈 7.3% 🥉 10.4% Avg 7.5 ⚡ 75 longshot wins

📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings

Horses ordered by Brisnet Speed Rating (BSR) — the higher the BSR, the faster the horse has run. This is Brisnet's primary selection indicator.
BSR Rank Horse Avg BSR (top-3) ML Odds Days Off Form Sim Win %
1 6 MILA'S WISH SPEED LEADER 77.7 6-1 92d ---2-1 24.4%
2 1 COERCIVE 75.3 2-1 11d -3---- 5.1%
3 2 LADY KHOZ 75.3 15-1 14d 22-223 26.9%
4 7 FIRE BARON 71.3 6-1 15d ------ 6.0%
5 4 HE'S SIDE EYED 69.7 6-1 18d ----2- 0.6%
6 5 CHEQUERA 69.3 10-1 11d --1--- 6.9%
7 3 GRAY BEAST 69 7-2 22d 12---- 14.8%
8 8 IL VAGABUNDO 65 15-1 60d -1---- 11.9%
9 9 OH' WHAT A DAY 50.3 15-1 18d -1- 3.8%

BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.

Simulation Results

2,000 runs  ·  Engine v3-trajectory-bounce  ·  2026-05-21 16:53:34
# Horse Win % ↕ Place % ↕ Show % ↕ Avg Finish ↕ Best ↕ Worst ↕ Base Score ↕ BSR Rank ⚡ Longshots
1 2 LADY KHOZ
26.85%
46.25% 60.85% 3.23 1 9 77.7 #3 ≈ ⚡ 537
2 6 MILA'S WISH
24.40%
40.70% 51.70% 3.90 1 9 76.0 #1 ≈ —
3 3 GRAY BEAST
14.75%
33.45% 52.90% 3.62 1 9 75.5 #7 ▲ —
4 8 IL VAGABUNDO
11.85%
23.15% 34.80% 4.80 1 9 71.3 #8 ▲ ⚡ 237
5 5 CHEQUERA
6.85%
16.90% 29.45% 5.10 1 9 70.2 #6 ≈ ⚡ 137
6 7 FIRE BARON
5.95%
12.95% 19.35% 6.16 1 9 64.9 #4 ≈ —
7 1 COERCIVE
5.05%
16.65% 32.80% 4.42 1 9 72.7 #2 ▼ —
8 9 OH' WHAT A DAY
3.75%
7.25% 10.40% 7.47 1 9 55.2 #9 ≈ ⚡ 75
9 4 HE'S SIDE EYED
0.55%
2.70% 7.75% 6.30 1 9 66.2 #5 ▼ —

Win % = (times horse won ÷ 2,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.

🎯 Value Rankings

All horses sorted by Value Rating (Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied%) — highest value at the top. Horses at 10/1+ are flagged as longshots.
# Horse ML Odds ML Implied % Sim Win % Place % Show % Value Rating ⚡ Longshot Wins
1 2 LADY KHOZ LONGSHOT BEST VALUE 15-1 6.3%
26.85%
46.25% 60.85% 🔥 4.30x ⚡ 537
2 8 IL VAGABUNDO LONGSHOT 15-1 6.3%
11.85%
23.15% 34.80% ✅ 1.90x ⚡ 237
3 6 MILA'S WISH 6-1 14.3%
24.40%
40.70% 51.70% ✅ 1.71x —
4 5 CHEQUERA LONGSHOT 10-1 9.1%
6.85%
16.90% 29.45% 0.75x ⚡ 137
5 3 GRAY BEAST 7-2 22.2%
14.75%
33.45% 52.90% 0.66x —
6 9 OH' WHAT A DAY LONGSHOT 15-1 6.3%
3.75%
7.25% 10.40% 0.60x ⚡ 75
7 7 FIRE BARON 6-1 14.3%
5.95%
12.95% 19.35% 0.42x —
8 1 COERCIVE 2-1 33.3%
5.05%
16.65% 32.80% 0.15x —
9 4 HE'S SIDE EYED 6-1 14.3%
0.55%
2.70% 7.75% 0.04x —

Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.

🎲 Pure Chance

If every horse had an equal shot — 9 horses, ~11.1% each

Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.

# Horse Chance Win% Sim Win% Edge Chance Bar
3 GRAY BEAST 12.5% 14.8% +2.3%
7 FIRE BARON 12.5% 6.0% -6.6%
2 LADY KHOZ 11.2% 26.9% +15.7%
5 CHEQUERA 10.9% 6.9% -4.1%
4 HE'S SIDE EYED 10.6% 0.6% -10.0%
1 COERCIVE 10.4% 5.1% -5.4%
8 IL VAGABUNDO 10.3% 11.9% +1.6%
6 MILA'S WISH 8.9% 24.4% +15.5%
9 OH' WHAT A DAY 8.2% 3.8% -4.4%

Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.

🎯 Suggested Picks

Based on 2,000 simulation runs
🥇 Top Win Picks
  1. 2 LADY KHOZ 26.9% 15-1
  2. 6 MILA'S WISH 24.4% 6-1
  3. 3 GRAY BEAST 14.8% 7-2
🥈 Top Place Picks
  1. 2 LADY KHOZ 46.3% 15-1
  2. 6 MILA'S WISH 40.7% 6-1
  3. 3 GRAY BEAST 33.5% 7-2
🥉 Top Show Picks
  1. 2 LADY KHOZ 60.9% 15-1
  2. 3 GRAY BEAST 52.9% 7-2
  3. 6 MILA'S WISH 51.7% 6-1
📋 Exacta Box
2-6-3
Box top 3 — covers all combinations
2 LADY KHOZ 6 MILA'S WISH 3 GRAY BEAST
🎲 Trifecta
2-6-3
Straight: 1st–2nd–3rd by sim rank
2 → 6-3-8
Key LADY KHOZ to win, wheel next 3 for 2nd/3rd
💫 Superfecta
2-6-3-8
Box top 4 — covers all 1st–4th combos
2/6 / 2/6 / 3/8/5 / 3/8/5
Key top 2 in 1st & 2nd; use next 3 in 3rd & 4th

🏆 Actual Results

#ProgHorse Finish Margin Odds Sim Predicted
1 4 HE'S SIDE EYED — — Sim #9 (0.6% win)
2 1 COERCIVE — — Sim #7 (5.1% win)
3 5 CHEQUERA — — Sim #5 (6.9% win)
4 2 LADY KHOZ — — Sim #1 (26.9% win)
5 7 FIRE BARON — — Sim #6 (6.0% win)
6 6 MILA'S WISH — — Sim #2 (24.4% win)
7 8 IL VAGABUNDO — — Sim #4 (11.9% win)
8 9 OH' WHAT A DAY — — Sim #8 (3.8% win)
9 3 GRAY BEAST — — Sim #3 (14.8% win)

Official winner: HE'S SIDE EYED

✏️ Edit Results
Prog Horse Finish Position Margin (lengths) Final Odds
4 HE'S SIDE EYED
1 COERCIVE
5 CHEQUERA
2 LADY KHOZ
7 FIRE BARON
6 MILA'S WISH
8 IL VAGABUNDO
9 OH' WHAT A DAY
3 GRAY BEAST