DNENTRIES 7TH DED MAY 1 STATE-BRED I10000 0 AOC 330.00 FURLONGS DIRT QUARTER HORSE COLTS AND GELDINGS 2 YEAR OLDS TRIALS PURSE $10000 (07:15) (9 )
Field — 9 Runners
📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings
| BSR Rank | Horse | Avg BSR (top-3) | ML Odds | Days Off | Form | Sim Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 CONAIR CARTEL SPEED LEADER | 96.5 | 9-5 | 34d | 21 | 58.0% |
| 2 | 3 AJS BLACK LABEL BUZZ | 90 | 9-2 | 55d | 1 | 19.7% |
| 3 | 5 SPICEY TIDE | 89 | 20-1 | 35d | - | 7.2% |
| 4 | 6 GOLD EYE EAGLE | 84.5 | 12-1 | 35d | 3- | 0.2% |
| 5 | 8 UNBULLEVABULL TRAIN | 80 | 7-2 | 54d | 3 | 1.1% |
| 6 | 1 SOUTHERN WITH STYLE | 79 | 8-1 | 54d | - | 0.9% |
| 7 | 7 HERO STONE | 66 | 12-1 | 55d | - | 0.0% |
| 8 | 2 MR JA JAMES | — First starter | 15-1 | — | — | 3.5% |
| 9 | 4 IM IT | — First starter | 6-1 | — | — | 9.3% |
BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.
Simulation Results
| # | Horse | Win % ↕ | Place % ↕ | Show % ↕ | Avg Finish ↕ | Best ↕ | Worst ↕ | Base Score ↕ | BSR Rank | ⚡ Longshots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 CONAIR CARTEL | 89.76% | 98.41% | 1.54 | 1 | 6 | 110.5 | #1 ≈ | — | |
| 2 | 3 AJS BLACK LABEL BUZZ | 45.13% | 65.25% | 3.13 | 1 | 9 | 98.5 | #2 ≈ | — | |
| 3 | 4 IM IT | 19.58% | 31.23% | 5.11 | 1 | 9 | 83.5 | #9 ▲ | — | |
| 4 | 5 SPICEY TIDE | 20.90% | 39.72% | 4.30 | 1 | 9 | 89.6 | #3 ≈ | ⚡ 722 | |
| 5 | 2 MR JA JAMES | 9.27% | 18.03% | 6.18 | 1 | 9 | 73.9 | #8 ▲ | ⚡ 354 | |
| 6 | 8 UNBULLEVABULL TRAIN | 5.76% | 13.25% | 5.98 | 1 | 9 | 77.3 | #5 ≈ | — | |
| 7 | 1 SOUTHERN WITH STYLE | 3.96% | 10.46% | 6.27 | 1 | 9 | 74.8 | #6 ≈ | — | |
| 8 | 6 GOLD EYE EAGLE | 5.17% | 21.90% | 4.61 | 1 | 9 | 87.0 | #4 ▼ | ⚡ 22 | |
| 9 | 7 HERO STONE | 0.47% | 1.75% | 7.88 | 1 | 9 | 59.9 | #7 ≈ | ⚡ 4 |
Win % = (times horse won ÷ 10,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.
🎯 Value Rankings
| # | Horse | ML Odds | ML Implied % | Sim Win % | Place % | Show % | Value Rating | ⚡ Longshot Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 CONAIR CARTEL | 9-5 | 35.7% | 89.76% | 98.41% | ✅ 1.62x | — | |
| 2 | 5 SPICEY TIDE LONGSHOT BEST VALUE | 20-1 | 4.8% | 20.90% | 39.72% | ✅ 1.52x | ⚡ 722 | |
| 3 | 3 AJS BLACK LABEL BUZZ | 9-2 | 18.2% | 45.13% | 65.25% | 1.08x | — | |
| 4 | 4 IM IT | 6-1 | 14.3% | 19.58% | 31.23% | 0.65x | — | |
| 5 | 2 MR JA JAMES LONGSHOT | 15-1 | 6.3% | 9.27% | 18.03% | 0.57x | ⚡ 354 | |
| 6 | 1 SOUTHERN WITH STYLE | 8-1 | 11.1% | 3.96% | 10.46% | 0.08x | — | |
| 7 | 8 UNBULLEVABULL TRAIN | 7-2 | 22.2% | 5.76% | 13.25% | 0.05x | — | |
| 8 | 6 GOLD EYE EAGLE LONGSHOT | 12-1 | 7.7% | 5.17% | 21.90% | 0.03x | ⚡ 22 | |
| 9 | 7 HERO STONE LONGSHOT | 12-1 | 7.7% | 0.47% | 1.75% | 0.01x | ⚡ 4 |
Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.
🎲 Pure Chance
Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.
| # | Horse | Chance Win% | Sim Win% | Edge | Chance Bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | AJS BLACK LABEL BUZZ | 14.1% | 19.7% | +5.6% | |
| 2 | MR JA JAMES | 13.6% | 3.5% | -10.1% | |
| 5 | SPICEY TIDE | 12.6% | 7.2% | -5.4% | |
| 7 | HERO STONE | 12.5% | 0.0% | -12.5% | |
| 6 | GOLD EYE EAGLE | 10.1% | 0.2% | -9.9% | |
| 9 | CONAIR CARTEL | 9.7% | 58.0% | +48.3% | |
| 8 | UNBULLEVABULL TRAIN | 8.5% | 1.1% | -7.4% | |
| 1 | SOUTHERN WITH STYLE | 8.3% | 0.9% | -7.4% | |
| 4 | IM IT | 8.2% | 9.3% | +1.1% |
Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.
🎯 Suggested Picks
- 9 CONAIR CARTEL 58.0% 9-5
- 3 AJS BLACK LABEL BUZZ 19.7% 9-2
- 4 IM IT 9.3% 6-1
- 9 CONAIR CARTEL 89.8% 9-5
- 3 AJS BLACK LABEL BUZZ 45.1% 9-2
- 5 SPICEY TIDE 20.9% 20-1
- 9 CONAIR CARTEL 98.4% 9-5
- 3 AJS BLACK LABEL BUZZ 65.3% 9-2
- 5 SPICEY TIDE 39.7% 20-1