DNENTRIES 10TH DED MAY 1 STATE-BRED H10000 0 AOC 330.00 FURLONGS DIRT QUARTER HORSE COLTS AND GELDINGS 2 YEAR OLDS TRIALS PURSE $10000 (08:30) (8 )
Field — 8 Runners
📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings
| BSR Rank | Horse | Avg BSR (top-3) | ML Odds | Days Off | Form | Sim Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 TELL EM IM FABULOUS SPEED LEADER | 92 | 2-1 | 55d | 1 | 35.8% |
| 2 | 5 MUCHO TRAFFIC | 85 | 10-1 | 36d | 2 | 21.7% |
| 3 | 7 ONE ROYAL TARZAN | 80 | 6-1 | 54d | - | 2.7% |
| 4 | 1 MDA CARTEL PATRIOT | 77 | 3-1 | 54d | 3 | 4.2% |
| 5 | 6 MUCHO FAST | 75 | 15-1 | 55d | - | 1.1% |
| 6 | 2 NEVER JAMES | — First starter | 9-2 | — | — | 16.0% |
| 7 | 3 CAJUN TIDE | — First starter | 6-1 | — | — | 14.7% |
| 8 | 8 MACHO MAN STONE | — First starter | 15-1 | — | — | 3.7% |
BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.
Simulation Results
| # | Horse | Win % ↕ | Place % ↕ | Show % ↕ | Avg Finish ↕ | Best ↕ | Worst ↕ | Base Score ↕ | BSR Rank | ⚡ Longshots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 TELL EM IM FABULOUS | 61.41% | 78.42% | 2.43 | 1 | 8 | 99.0 | #1 ≈ | — | |
| 2 | 5 MUCHO TRAFFIC | 45.80% | 64.90% | 3.04 | 1 | 8 | 93.2 | #2 ≈ | ⚡ 2174 | |
| 3 | 2 NEVER JAMES | 30.32% | 44.24% | 4.13 | 1 | 8 | 84.1 | #6 ▲ | — | |
| 4 | 3 CAJUN TIDE | 27.63% | 40.61% | 4.33 | 1 | 8 | 81.8 | #7 ▲ | — | |
| 5 | 1 MDA CARTEL PATRIOT | 12.77% | 25.47% | 4.87 | 1 | 8 | 77.9 | #4 ≈ | — | |
| 6 | 8 MACHO MAN STONE | 9.03% | 16.92% | 5.92 | 1 | 8 | 66.7 | #8 ≈ | ⚡ 371 | |
| 7 | 7 ONE ROYAL TARZAN | 8.90% | 19.34% | 5.29 | 1 | 8 | 73.9 | #3 ▼ | — | |
| 8 | 6 MUCHO FAST | 4.14% | 10.10% | 6.00 | 1 | 8 | 68.2 | #5 ▼ | ⚡ 111 |
Win % = (times horse won ÷ 10,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.
🎯 Value Rankings
| # | Horse | ML Odds | ML Implied % | Sim Win % | Place % | Show % | Value Rating | ⚡ Longshot Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 MUCHO TRAFFIC LONGSHOT BEST VALUE | 10-1 | 9.1% | 45.80% | 64.90% | 🔥 2.39x | ⚡ 2174 | |
| 2 | 4 TELL EM IM FABULOUS | 2-1 | 33.3% | 61.41% | 78.42% | 1.07x | — | |
| 3 | 3 CAJUN TIDE | 6-1 | 14.3% | 27.63% | 40.61% | 1.03x | — | |
| 4 | 2 NEVER JAMES | 9-2 | 18.2% | 30.32% | 44.24% | 0.88x | — | |
| 5 | 8 MACHO MAN STONE LONGSHOT | 15-1 | 6.3% | 9.03% | 16.92% | 0.59x | ⚡ 371 | |
| 6 | 7 ONE ROYAL TARZAN | 6-1 | 14.3% | 8.90% | 19.34% | 0.19x | — | |
| 7 | 6 MUCHO FAST LONGSHOT | 15-1 | 6.3% | 4.14% | 10.10% | 0.18x | ⚡ 111 | |
| 8 | 1 MDA CARTEL PATRIOT | 3-1 | 25% | 12.77% | 25.47% | 0.17x | — |
Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.
🎲 Pure Chance
Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.
| # | Horse | Chance Win% | Sim Win% | Edge | Chance Bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | TELL EM IM FABULOUS | 15.5% | 35.8% | +20.3% | |
| 8 | MACHO MAN STONE | 14.3% | 3.7% | -10.6% | |
| 2 | NEVER JAMES | 13.2% | 16.0% | +2.8% | |
| 5 | MUCHO TRAFFIC | 13.1% | 21.7% | +8.6% | |
| 3 | CAJUN TIDE | 12.7% | 14.7% | +2.0% | |
| 7 | ONE ROYAL TARZAN | 11.9% | 2.7% | -9.2% | |
| 6 | MUCHO FAST | 11.0% | 1.1% | -9.9% | |
| 1 | MDA CARTEL PATRIOT | 9.7% | 4.2% | -5.5% |
Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.
🎯 Suggested Picks
- 4 TELL EM IM FABULOUS 35.8% 2-1
- 5 MUCHO TRAFFIC 21.7% 10-1
- 2 NEVER JAMES 16.0% 9-2
- 4 TELL EM IM FABULOUS 61.4% 2-1
- 5 MUCHO TRAFFIC 45.8% 10-1
- 2 NEVER JAMES 30.3% 9-2
- 4 TELL EM IM FABULOUS 78.4% 2-1
- 5 MUCHO TRAFFIC 64.9% 10-1
- 2 NEVER JAMES 44.2% 9-2