DNENTRIES 11TH DED MAY 1 STATE-BRED I10000 0 AOC 330.00 FURLONGS DIRT QUARTER HORSE COLTS AND GELDINGS 2 YEAR OLDS TRIALS PURSE $10000 (08:55) (9 )
Field — 9 Runners
📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings
| BSR Rank | Horse | Avg BSR (top-3) | ML Odds | Days Off | Form | Sim Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 MR LA SPEED LEADER | 91 | 7-2 | 54d | 1 | 29.7% |
| 2 | 4 MP COCO PILOT | 91 | 2-1 | 55d | 1 | 29.1% |
| 3 | 5 LEAVING A NOTE | 80 | 10-1 | 54d | - | 1.1% |
| 4 | 2 DIFFERENT CARTEL | 74 | 4-1 | 35d | 2- | 7.8% |
| 5 | 3 INSPYRE ME BABY | — First starter | 15-1 | — | — | 4.5% |
| 6 | 6 WF CASHS REX ROLLING | — First starter | 5-1 | — | — | 16.0% |
| 7 | 7 ROYS LEAVING YOU | — First starter | 20-1 | — | — | 2.3% |
| 8 | 8 HEZA FAST TIDE | — First starter | 10-1 | — | — | 6.5% |
| 9 | 9 HEY T BOY | — First starter | 20-1 | — | — | 3.0% |
BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.
Simulation Results
| # | Horse | Win % ↕ | Place % ↕ | Show % ↕ | Avg Finish ↕ | Best ↕ | Worst ↕ | Base Score ↕ | BSR Rank | ⚡ Longshots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 MR LA | 55.17% | 73.58% | 2.67 | 1 | 9 | 100.8 | #1 ≈ | — | |
| 2 | 4 MP COCO PILOT | 54.04% | 73.02% | 2.70 | 1 | 9 | 100.5 | #2 ≈ | — | |
| 3 | 6 WF CASHS REX ROLLING | 29.97% | 44.17% | 4.21 | 1 | 9 | 87.8 | #6 ▲ | — | |
| 4 | 2 DIFFERENT CARTEL | 16.98% | 28.12% | 5.14 | 1 | 9 | 79.5 | #4 ≈ | — | |
| 5 | 8 HEZA FAST TIDE | 14.77% | 24.12% | 5.45 | 1 | 9 | 76.5 | #8 ▲ | ⚡ 651 | |
| 6 | 3 INSPYRE ME BABY | 10.48% | 18.97% | 5.92 | 1 | 9 | 72.1 | #5 ≈ | ⚡ 451 | |
| 7 | 9 HEY T BOY | 7.52% | 13.36% | 6.42 | 1 | 9 | 67.3 | #9 ≈ | ⚡ 296 | |
| 8 | 7 ROYS LEAVING YOU | 6.37% | 12.22% | 6.57 | 1 | 9 | 65.9 | #7 ≈ | ⚡ 228 | |
| 9 | 5 LEAVING A NOTE | 4.70% | 12.44% | 5.93 | 1 | 9 | 73.6 | #3 ▼ | ⚡ 111 |
Win % = (times horse won ÷ 10,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.
🎯 Value Rankings
| # | Horse | ML Odds | ML Implied % | Sim Win % | Place % | Show % | Value Rating | ⚡ Longshot Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 MR LA | 7-2 | 22.2% | 55.17% | 73.58% | 1.34x | — | |
| 2 | 6 WF CASHS REX ROLLING | 5-1 | 16.7% | 29.97% | 44.17% | 0.96x | — | |
| 3 | 4 MP COCO PILOT | 2-1 | 33.3% | 54.04% | 73.02% | 0.87x | — | |
| 4 | 8 HEZA FAST TIDE LONGSHOT BEST VALUE | 10-1 | 9.1% | 14.77% | 24.12% | 0.72x | ⚡ 651 | |
| 5 | 3 INSPYRE ME BABY LONGSHOT | 15-1 | 6.3% | 10.48% | 18.97% | 0.72x | ⚡ 451 | |
| 6 | 9 HEY T BOY LONGSHOT | 20-1 | 4.8% | 7.52% | 13.36% | 0.62x | ⚡ 296 | |
| 7 | 7 ROYS LEAVING YOU LONGSHOT | 20-1 | 4.8% | 6.37% | 12.22% | 0.48x | ⚡ 228 | |
| 8 | 2 DIFFERENT CARTEL | 4-1 | 20% | 16.98% | 28.12% | 0.39x | — | |
| 9 | 5 LEAVING A NOTE LONGSHOT | 10-1 | 9.1% | 4.70% | 12.44% | 0.12x | ⚡ 111 |
Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.
🎲 Pure Chance
Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.
| # | Horse | Chance Win% | Sim Win% | Edge | Chance Bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MR LA | 13.7% | 29.7% | +16.0% | |
| 8 | HEZA FAST TIDE | 13.3% | 6.5% | -6.8% | |
| 5 | LEAVING A NOTE | 12.9% | 1.1% | -11.8% | |
| 9 | HEY T BOY | 12.5% | 3.0% | -9.5% | |
| 4 | MP COCO PILOT | 11.4% | 29.1% | +17.7% | |
| 7 | ROYS LEAVING YOU | 9.9% | 2.3% | -7.6% | |
| 6 | WF CASHS REX ROLLING | 9.2% | 16.0% | +6.8% | |
| 2 | DIFFERENT CARTEL | 8.3% | 7.8% | -0.5% | |
| 3 | INSPYRE ME BABY | 8.1% | 4.5% | -3.6% |
Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.
🎯 Suggested Picks
- 1 MR LA 29.7% 7-2
- 4 MP COCO PILOT 29.1% 2-1
- 6 WF CASHS REX ROLLING 16.0% 5-1
- 1 MR LA 55.2% 7-2
- 4 MP COCO PILOT 54.0% 2-1
- 6 WF CASHS REX ROLLING 30.0% 5-1
- 1 MR LA 73.6% 7-2
- 4 MP COCO PILOT 73.0% 2-1
- 6 WF CASHS REX ROLLING 44.2% 5-1