TAENTRIES 1ST LRL MAY 16 5.5F K58000 0 BUM 5 1/2 FURLONGS TURF THOROUGHBRED FILLIES AND MARES 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING PURSE $58000 (10:30) (11)
Field — 11 Runners
📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings
| BSR Rank | Horse | Avg BSR (top-3) | ML Odds | Days Off | Form | Sim Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 ITSAMONSTAMASH SPEED LEADER | 92.3 | 30-1 | 42d | 211-22 | 7.7% |
| 2 | 4 SHEILAHS WARCLOUD | 88.3 | 30-1 | 34d | -31-32 | 9.5% |
| 3 | 8 GIFT OF GAB | 86.3 | 6-1 | 21d | ---13- | 14.3% |
| 4 | 9 PRECIOUS AVARY | 85.7 | 8-1 | 217d | 211111 | 15.9% |
| 5 | 7 EPIC STYLE | 85 | 8-5 | 34d | 3-3123 | 6.7% |
| 6 | 1 SALLY'S GOLD | 84.7 | 8-1 | 34d | -11133 | 25.8% |
| 7 | 3 CAIRO STREET | 82.7 | 6-1 | 182d | ----13 | 3.0% |
| 8 | 10 PREPAREFORTAKEOFF | 82.7 | 30-1 | 14d | ---1-2 | 0.7% |
| 9 | 2 BOUJEE BUBBLEZ | 81 | 7-2 | 183d | 21-113 | 14.8% |
| 10 | 5 SECURE'S HOPE | 77.7 | 15-1 | 183d | -2--23 | 1.9% |
BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.
Simulation Results
| # | Horse | Win % ↕ | Place % ↕ | Show % ↕ | Avg Finish ↕ | Best ↕ | Worst ↕ | Base Score ↕ | BSR Rank | ⚡ Longshots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 SALLY'S GOLD | 41.95% | 55.85% | 3.61 | 1 | 10 | 94.3 | #6 ▲ | — | |
| 2 | 9 PRECIOUS AVARY | 32.55% | 48.05% | 3.89 | 1 | 10 | 93.3 | #4 ≈ | — | |
| 3 | 2 BOUJEE BUBBLEZ | 27.10% | 38.60% | 4.85 | 1 | 10 | 91.0 | #9 ▲ | — | |
| 4 | 8 GIFT OF GAB | 29.15% | 44.40% | 4.24 | 1 | 10 | 92.3 | #3 ≈ | — | |
| 5 | 4 SHEILAHS WARCLOUD | 22.15% | 36.40% | 4.49 | 1 | 10 | 91.7 | #2 ▼ | ⚡ 190 | |
| 6 | 6 ITSAMONSTAMASH | 15.95% | 24.10% | 5.86 | 1 | 10 | 88.4 | #1 ▼ | ⚡ 154 | |
| 7 | 7 EPIC STYLE | 17.60% | 28.35% | 5.08 | 1 | 10 | 90.4 | #5 ≈ | — | |
| 8 | 3 CAIRO STREET | 7.75% | 14.95% | 6.05 | 1 | 10 | 87.9 | #7 ≈ | — | |
| 9 | 5 SECURE'S HOPE | 4.15% | 6.75% | 8.01 | 1 | 10 | 80.7 | #10 ≈ | ⚡ 37 | |
| 10 | 10 PREPAREFORTAKEOFF | 1.65% | 2.55% | 8.93 | 1 | 10 | 76.3 | #8 ≈ | ⚡ 14 |
Win % = (times horse won ÷ 2,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.
🎯 Value Rankings
| # | Horse | ML Odds | ML Implied % | Sim Win % | Place % | Show % | Value Rating | ⚡ Longshot Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 SHEILAHS WARCLOUD LONGSHOT BEST VALUE | 30-1 | 3.2% | 22.15% | 36.40% | 🔥 2.95x | ⚡ 190 | |
| 2 | 6 ITSAMONSTAMASH LONGSHOT | 30-1 | 3.2% | 15.95% | 24.10% | 🔥 2.39x | ⚡ 154 | |
| 3 | 1 SALLY'S GOLD | 8-1 | 11.1% | 41.95% | 55.85% | 🔥 2.32x | — | |
| 4 | 9 PRECIOUS AVARY | 8-1 | 11.1% | 32.55% | 48.05% | 1.43x | — | |
| 5 | 8 GIFT OF GAB | 6-1 | 14.3% | 29.15% | 44.40% | 1.00x | — | |
| 6 | 2 BOUJEE BUBBLEZ | 7-2 | 22.2% | 27.10% | 38.60% | 0.66x | — | |
| 7 | 5 SECURE'S HOPE LONGSHOT | 15-1 | 6.3% | 4.15% | 6.75% | 0.30x | ⚡ 37 | |
| 8 | 10 PREPAREFORTAKEOFF LONGSHOT | 30-1 | 3.2% | 1.65% | 2.55% | 0.22x | ⚡ 14 | |
| 9 | 3 CAIRO STREET | 6-1 | 14.3% | 7.75% | 14.95% | 0.21x | — | |
| 10 | 7 EPIC STYLE | 8-5 | 38.5% | 17.60% | 28.35% | 0.17x | — |
Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.
🎲 Pure Chance
Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.
| # | Horse | Chance Win% | Sim Win% | Edge | Chance Bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | PRECIOUS AVARY | 12.1% | 15.9% | +3.8% | |
| 1 | SALLY'S GOLD | 12.0% | 25.8% | +13.8% | |
| 7 | EPIC STYLE | 11.9% | 6.7% | -5.3% | |
| 2 | BOUJEE BUBBLEZ | 11.8% | 14.8% | +2.9% | |
| 10 | PREPAREFORTAKEOFF | 11.3% | 0.7% | -10.6% | |
| 5 | SECURE'S HOPE | 10.5% | 1.9% | -8.7% | |
| 6 | ITSAMONSTAMASH | 10.2% | 7.7% | -2.5% | |
| 8 | GIFT OF GAB | 9.9% | 14.3% | +4.4% | |
| 3 | CAIRO STREET | 9.3% | 3.0% | -6.3% | |
| 4 | SHEILAHS WARCLOUD | 8.8% | 9.5% | +0.7% |
Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.
🎯 Suggested Picks
- 1 SALLY'S GOLD 25.8% 8-1
- 9 PRECIOUS AVARY 15.9% 8-1
- 2 BOUJEE BUBBLEZ 14.8% 7-2
- 1 SALLY'S GOLD 42.0% 8-1
- 9 PRECIOUS AVARY 32.6% 8-1
- 8 GIFT OF GAB 29.2% 6-1
- 1 SALLY'S GOLD 55.9% 8-1
- 9 PRECIOUS AVARY 48.1% 8-1
- 8 GIFT OF GAB 44.4% 6-1
🏆 Actual Results
| # | Prog | Horse | Finish | Margin | Odds | Sim Predicted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | BOUJEE BUBBLEZ | — | — | Sim #3 (14.8% win) | |
| 2 | 7 | EPIC STYLE | — | — | Sim #7 (6.7% win) | |
| 3 | 5 | SECURE'S HOPE | — | — | Sim #9 (1.9% win) | |
| 4 | 1 | SALLY'S GOLD | — | — | Sim #1 (25.8% win) | |
| 5 | 8 | GIFT OF GAB | — | — | Sim #4 (14.3% win) | |
| 6 | 10 | PREPAREFORTAKEOFF | — | — | Sim #10 (0.7% win) | |
| 7 | 4 | SHEILAHS WARCLOUD | — | — | Sim #5 (9.5% win) | |
| 8 | 9 | PRECIOUS AVARY | — | — | Sim #2 (15.9% win) | |
| 9 | 3 | CAIRO STREET | — | — | Sim #8 (3.0% win) | |
| 10 | 6 | ITSAMONSTAMASH | — | — | Sim #6 (7.7% win) |
Official winner: Boujee Bubblez