DNENTRIES 4TH LRL MAY 16 6F G125000 0 BUM 6 FURLONGS DIRT THOROUGHBRED FILLIES AND MARES 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP NONGRADED STAKE PURSE $125000 (12:16) (7 )
Field — 7 Runners
📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings
| BSR Rank | Horse | Avg BSR (top-3) | ML Odds | Days Off | Form | Sim Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 STRIKER HAS DIAL SPEED LEADER | 98.3 | 8-1 | 231d | 112-22 | 2.6% |
| 2 | 2 PASSAGE EAST | 96.3 | 3-1 | 63d | 313111 | 80.5% |
| 3 | 7 MODO | 96 | 9-5 | 30d | 132211 | 8.4% |
| 4 | 3 KAPPA KAPPA | 94.3 | 5-2 | 160d | -1121 | 8.7% |
| 5 | 4 BENEDETTA | 91.3 | 8-1 | 71d | --2-32 | 0.0% |
BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.
Simulation Results
| # | Horse | Win % ↕ | Place % ↕ | Show % ↕ | Avg Finish ↕ | Best ↕ | Worst ↕ | Base Score ↕ | BSR Rank | ⚡ Longshots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 PASSAGE EAST | 95.75% | 99.50% | 1.24 | 1 | 4 | 120.8 | #2 ≈ | — | |
| 2 | 3 KAPPA KAPPA | 42.10% | 75.85% | 2.75 | 1 | 5 | 110.0 | #4 ≈ | — | |
| 3 | 7 MODO | 42.50% | 72.85% | 2.79 | 1 | 5 | 109.5 | #3 ≈ | — | |
| 4 | 1 STRIKER HAS DIAL | 19.15% | 49.65% | 3.34 | 1 | 5 | 106.0 | #1 ▼ | — | |
| 5 | 4 BENEDETTA | 0.50% | 2.15% | 4.87 | 2 | 5 | 93.0 | #5 ≈ | — |
Win % = (times horse won ÷ 2,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.
🎯 Value Rankings
| # | Horse | ML Odds | ML Implied % | Sim Win % | Place % | Show % | Value Rating | ⚡ Longshot Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 PASSAGE EAST | 3-1 | 25% | 95.75% | 99.50% | 🔥 3.22x | — | |
| 2 | 3 KAPPA KAPPA | 5-2 | 28.6% | 42.10% | 75.85% | 0.30x | — | |
| 3 | 7 MODO | 9-5 | 35.7% | 42.50% | 72.85% | 0.23x | — | |
| 4 | 1 STRIKER HAS DIAL | 8-1 | 11.1% | 19.15% | 49.65% | 0.23x | — | |
| 5 | 4 BENEDETTA | 8-1 | 11.1% | 0.50% | 2.15% | 0.00x | — |
Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.
🎲 Pure Chance
Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.
| # | Horse | Chance Win% | Sim Win% | Edge | Chance Bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | MODO | 22.9% | 8.4% | -14.5% | |
| 4 | BENEDETTA | 19.6% | 0.0% | -19.6% | |
| 2 | PASSAGE EAST | 18.1% | 80.5% | +62.4% | |
| 1 | STRIKER HAS DIAL | 18.0% | 2.6% | -15.5% | |
| 3 | KAPPA KAPPA | 17.1% | 8.7% | -8.5% |
Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.
🎯 Suggested Picks
- 2 PASSAGE EAST 80.5% 3-1
- 3 KAPPA KAPPA 8.7% 5-2
- 7 MODO 8.4% 9-5
- 2 PASSAGE EAST 95.8% 3-1
- 7 MODO 42.5% 9-5
- 3 KAPPA KAPPA 42.1% 5-2
- 2 PASSAGE EAST 99.5% 3-1
- 3 KAPPA KAPPA 75.9% 5-2
- 7 MODO 72.9% 9-5
🏆 Actual Results
| # | Prog | Horse | Finish | Margin | Odds | Sim Predicted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | STRIKER HAS DIAL | — | — | Sim #4 (2.6% win) | |
| 2 | 4 | BENEDETTA | — | — | Sim #5 (0.0% win) | |
| 3 | 2 | PASSAGE EAST | — | — | Sim #1 (80.5% win) | |
| 4 | 3 | KAPPA KAPPA | — | — | Sim #2 (8.7% win) | |
| 5 | 7 | MODO | — | — | Sim #3 (8.4% win) |
Official winner: STRIKER HAS DIAL