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DCENTRIES 6TH TAM MAY 3 6F F23000 6250 0 CUN 6 FURLONGS DIRT THOROUGHBRED OPEN 4 YEAR OLDS AND UP CLAIMING 6250-ALL PURSE $23000 (03:05) (6 )

🏟 Tampa Bay Downs 📅 2026-05-03 📏 6F Dirt Clm 6250 💰 $23,000
📡 Fetch History

Field — 6 Runners

1
BLACK CANDY
0.1%
RPR 73
Form ----133---
Off 93d
lbs 118
ML 20-1
J HERRERA JACINTO R
T TOMCZAK MARK
By SIDNEY'S CANDY Out of BLACK JAVA
🥇 0.1% 🥈 0.5% 🥉 2.9% Avg 5.3 ⚡ 1 longshot wins
2
NEWYEARSBLOCKPARTY
32.6%
RPR 80
Form 1-2---2---
Off 23d
lbs 118
ML 7-2
J MENESES MARCOS
T POOLE JEFFREY A
By NEW YEAR'S DAY Out of SHEDRIVESMEUPATREE
🥇 32.6% 🥈 43.0% 🥉 58.7% Avg 3.0
3
JUST RELAX
35.6%
RPR 79
Form ---1-1-1-1
Off 53d
lbs 118
ML 3-1
J MARIN SAMUEL
T SIMONE MICHAEL V
By NOBLE BIRD Out of STRATEGIZE
🥇 35.6% 🥈 70.3% 🥉 94.0% Avg 2.0
4
LITIGANT
9.4%
RPR 83
Form --11---223
Off 79d
lbs 118
ML 6-1
J COTTO P L JR
T OCHOA GERARD
By MINESHAFT Out of FANTASY BAY
🥇 9.4% 🥈 21.4% 🥉 51.0% Avg 3.3
5
MEGAN'S HONOR
22.4%
RPR 82
Form 3-11---3-3
Off 16d
lbs 118
ML 1-1
J GIL CIPRIANO
T SIMONE MICHAEL V
By GHAALEB Out of HONOR GRAEME
🥇 22.4% 🥈 64.7% 🥉 91.0% Avg 2.2
6
TWO STEPPIN KLUKI
0.1%
RPR 75
Form 1---3--21-
Off 46d
lbs 118
ML 10-1
J LEON JOSE A
T CUDWORTH PAUL
By TWO STEP SALSA Out of KLUKI
🥇 0.1% 🥈 0.2% 🥉 2.6% Avg 5.2 ⚡ 1 longshot wins

📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings

Horses ordered by Brisnet Speed Rating (BSR) — the higher the BSR, the faster the horse has run. This is Brisnet's primary selection indicator.
BSR Rank Horse Avg BSR (top-3) ML Odds Days Off Form Sim Win %
1 4 LITIGANT SPEED LEADER 83.7 6-1 79d ---223 9.4%
2 5 MEGAN'S HONOR 82 1-1 16d ---3-3 22.4%
3 2 NEWYEARSBLOCKPARTY 80.7 7-2 23d --2--- 32.6%
4 3 JUST RELAX 79.3 3-1 53d -1-1-1 35.6%
5 6 TWO STEPPIN KLUKI 75.3 10-1 46d 3--21- 0.1%
6 1 BLACK CANDY 73.7 20-1 93d 133--- 0.1%

BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.

Simulation Results

2,000 runs  ·  Engine v3-trajectory-bounce  ·  2026-05-21 16:53:34
# Horse Win % ↕ Place % ↕ Show % ↕ Avg Finish ↕ Best ↕ Worst ↕ Base Score ↕ BSR Rank ⚡ Longshots
1 3 JUST RELAX
35.60%
70.25% 93.95% 2.01 1 6 91.6 #4 ▲ —
2 2 NEWYEARSBLOCKPARTY
32.55%
43.00% 58.65% 2.98 1 6 83.8 #3 ≈ —
3 5 MEGAN'S HONOR
22.35%
64.70% 91.00% 2.22 1 5 89.8 #2 ≈ —
4 4 LITIGANT
9.40%
21.40% 50.95% 3.33 1 6 80.8 #1 ▼ —
5 1 BLACK CANDY
0.05%
0.45% 2.90% 5.30 1 6 59.5 #6 ≈ ⚡ 1
6 6 TWO STEPPIN KLUKI
0.05%
0.20% 2.55% 5.17 1 6 61.6 #5 ≈ ⚡ 1

Win % = (times horse won ÷ 2,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.

🎯 Value Rankings

All horses sorted by Value Rating (Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied%) — highest value at the top. Horses at 10/1+ are flagged as longshots.
# Horse ML Odds ML Implied % Sim Win % Place % Show % Value Rating ⚡ Longshot Wins
1 2 NEWYEARSBLOCKPARTY 7-2 22.2%
32.55%
43.00% 58.65% 1.46x —
2 3 JUST RELAX 3-1 25%
35.60%
70.25% 93.95% 1.42x —
3 4 LITIGANT 6-1 14.3%
9.40%
21.40% 50.95% 0.66x —
4 5 MEGAN'S HONOR 1-1 50%
22.35%
64.70% 91.00% 0.45x —
5 1 BLACK CANDY LONGSHOT BEST VALUE 20-1 4.8%
0.05%
0.45% 2.90% 0.01x ⚡ 1
6 6 TWO STEPPIN KLUKI LONGSHOT 10-1 9.1%
0.05%
0.20% 2.55% 0.01x ⚡ 1

Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.

🎲 Pure Chance

If every horse had an equal shot — 6 horses, ~16.7% each

Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.

# Horse Chance Win% Sim Win% Edge Chance Bar
6 TWO STEPPIN KLUKI 19.5% 0.1% -19.5%
1 BLACK CANDY 18.8% 0.1% -18.8%
4 LITIGANT 18.1% 9.4% -8.7%
5 MEGAN'S HONOR 18.0% 22.4% +4.4%
2 NEWYEARSBLOCKPARTY 17.7% 32.6% +14.8%
3 JUST RELAX 14.5% 35.6% +21.1%

Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.

🎯 Suggested Picks

Based on 2,000 simulation runs
🥇 Top Win Picks
  1. 3 JUST RELAX 35.6% 3-1
  2. 2 NEWYEARSBLOCKPARTY 32.6% 7-2
  3. 5 MEGAN'S HONOR 22.4% 1-1
🥈 Top Place Picks
  1. 3 JUST RELAX 70.3% 3-1
  2. 5 MEGAN'S HONOR 64.7% 1-1
  3. 2 NEWYEARSBLOCKPARTY 43.0% 7-2
🥉 Top Show Picks
  1. 3 JUST RELAX 94.0% 3-1
  2. 5 MEGAN'S HONOR 91.0% 1-1
  3. 2 NEWYEARSBLOCKPARTY 58.7% 7-2
📋 Exacta Box
3-2-5
Box top 3 — covers all combinations
3 JUST RELAX 2 NEWYEARSBLOCKPARTY 5 MEGAN'S HONOR
🎲 Trifecta
3-2-5
Straight: 1st–2nd–3rd by sim rank
3 → 2-5-4
Key JUST RELAX to win, wheel next 3 for 2nd/3rd
💫 Superfecta
3-2-5-4
Box top 4 — covers all 1st–4th combos
3/2 / 3/2 / 5/4/1 / 5/4/1
Key top 2 in 1st & 2nd; use next 3 in 3rd & 4th

🏆 Actual Results

#ProgHorse Finish Margin Odds Sim Predicted
1 3 JUST RELAX — — Sim #1 (35.6% win)
3 5 MEGAN'S HONOR — — Sim #3 (22.4% win)
4 1 BLACK CANDY — — Sim #5 (0.1% win)
4 6 TWO STEPPIN KLUKI — — Sim #6 (0.1% win)
5 4 LITIGANT — — Sim #4 (9.4% win)
6 2 NEWYEARSBLOCKPARTY — — Sim #2 (32.6% win)

Official winner: JUST RELAX

✏️ Edit Results
Prog Horse Finish Position Margin (lengths) Final Odds
3 JUST RELAX
5 MEGAN'S HONOR
1 BLACK CANDY
6 TWO STEPPIN KLUKI
4 LITIGANT
2 NEWYEARSBLOCKPARTY