DNENTRIES 7TH LRL MAY 16 6F H150000 0 BON 6 FURLONGS DIRT THOROUGHBRED OPEN 3 YEAR OLDS NONGRADED STAKE PURSE $150000 (02:07) (8 )
Field — 8 Runners
📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings
| BSR Rank | Horse | Avg BSR (top-3) | ML Odds | Days Off | Form | Sim Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 OBLITERATION SPEED LEADER | 96.3 | 6-5 | 91d | -22211 | 55.7% |
| 2 | 6 SHANE'S WONDER | 93.7 | 3-1 | 24d | 111 | 18.8% |
| 3 | 5 IGNITER | 92.3 | 5-2 | 63d | 11313 | 14.7% |
| 4 | 1 FULMINE | 85 | 20-1 | 28d | ---11- | 7.3% |
| 5 | 2 HOLLYWOOD IMPORT | 84.3 | 15-1 | 29d | -11-21 | 2.5% |
| 6 | 8 MAGIC WALLET | 81.7 | 15-1 | 29d | 311 | 0.0% |
| 7 | 7 TOP MANIPULATOR | 81.3 | 30-1 | 29d | 111- | 1.2% |
BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.
Simulation Results
| # | Horse | Win % ↕ | Place % ↕ | Show % ↕ | Avg Finish ↕ | Best ↕ | Worst ↕ | Base Score ↕ | BSR Rank | ⚡ Longshots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 OBLITERATION | 77.90% | 90.00% | 1.81 | 1 | 7 | 109.8 | #1 ≈ | — | |
| 2 | 6 SHANE'S WONDER | 48.80% | 73.70% | 2.72 | 1 | 7 | 104.5 | #2 ≈ | — | |
| 3 | 5 IGNITER | 41.00% | 66.05% | 2.97 | 1 | 7 | 103.4 | #3 ≈ | — | |
| 4 | 1 FULMINE | 19.00% | 35.85% | 4.10 | 1 | 7 | 98.7 | #4 ≈ | ⚡ 145 | |
| 5 | 2 HOLLYWOOD IMPORT | 9.30% | 24.35% | 4.38 | 1 | 7 | 97.8 | #5 ≈ | ⚡ 49 | |
| 6 | 7 TOP MANIPULATOR | 3.85% | 9.05% | 5.53 | 1 | 7 | 92.3 | #7 ≈ | ⚡ 23 | |
| 7 | 8 MAGIC WALLET | 0.15% | 1.00% | 6.50 | 2 | 7 | 86.8 | #6 ≈ | — |
Win % = (times horse won ÷ 2,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.
🎯 Value Rankings
| # | Horse | ML Odds | ML Implied % | Sim Win % | Place % | Show % | Value Rating | ⚡ Longshot Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 FULMINE LONGSHOT BEST VALUE | 20-1 | 4.8% | 19.00% | 35.85% | ✅ 1.52x | ⚡ 145 | |
| 2 | 4 OBLITERATION | 6-5 | 45.5% | 77.90% | 90.00% | 1.23x | — | |
| 3 | 6 SHANE'S WONDER | 3-1 | 25% | 48.80% | 73.70% | 0.75x | — | |
| 4 | 5 IGNITER | 5-2 | 28.6% | 41.00% | 66.05% | 0.51x | — | |
| 5 | 2 HOLLYWOOD IMPORT LONGSHOT | 15-1 | 6.3% | 9.30% | 24.35% | 0.39x | ⚡ 49 | |
| 6 | 7 TOP MANIPULATOR LONGSHOT | 30-1 | 3.2% | 3.85% | 9.05% | 0.36x | ⚡ 23 | |
| 7 | 8 MAGIC WALLET LONGSHOT | 15-1 | 6.3% | 0.15% | 1.00% | 0.00x | — |
Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.
🎲 Pure Chance
Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.
| # | Horse | Chance Win% | Sim Win% | Edge | Chance Bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | IGNITER | 17.2% | 14.7% | -2.5% | |
| 2 | HOLLYWOOD IMPORT | 16.2% | 2.5% | -13.8% | |
| 7 | TOP MANIPULATOR | 15.8% | 1.2% | -14.7% | |
| 6 | SHANE'S WONDER | 15.1% | 18.8% | +3.7% | |
| 4 | OBLITERATION | 14.1% | 55.7% | +41.6% | |
| 8 | MAGIC WALLET | 14.0% | 0.0% | -14.0% | |
| 1 | FULMINE | 11.9% | 7.3% | -4.7% |
Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.
🎯 Suggested Picks
- 4 OBLITERATION 55.7% 6-5
- 6 SHANE'S WONDER 18.8% 3-1
- 5 IGNITER 14.7% 5-2
- 4 OBLITERATION 77.9% 6-5
- 6 SHANE'S WONDER 48.8% 3-1
- 5 IGNITER 41.0% 5-2
- 4 OBLITERATION 90.0% 6-5
- 6 SHANE'S WONDER 73.7% 3-1
- 5 IGNITER 66.1% 5-2
🏆 Actual Results
| # | Prog | Horse | Finish | Margin | Odds | Sim Predicted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | OBLITERATION | — | — | Sim #1 (55.7% win) | |
| 2 | 6 | SHANE'S WONDER | — | — | Sim #2 (18.8% win) | |
| 3 | 5 | IGNITER | — | — | Sim #3 (14.7% win) | |
| 4 | 1 | FULMINE | — | — | Sim #4 (7.3% win) | |
| 5 | 7 | TOP MANIPULATOR | — | — | Sim #6 (1.2% win) | |
| 6 | 8 | MAGIC WALLET | — | — | Sim #7 (0.0% win) | |
| 7 | 2 | HOLLYWOOD IMPORT | — | — | Sim #5 (2.5% win) |
Official winner: OBLITERATION