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TNENTRIES 9TH LRL MAY 16 8F H100000 0 BON 1 MILE TURF THOROUGHBRED OPEN 3 YEAR OLDS NONGRADED STAKE PURSE $100000 (03:30) (8 )

🏟 Laurel Park 📅 2026-05-16 📏 1M Turf JWMurphyB100k 💰 $100,000
📡 Fetch History

Field — 8 Runners

1
MY FAVORITE BIRD
0.6%
RPR 83
Form 3-12213---
Off 14d
lbs 118
ML 10-1
J PRAT FLAVIEN
T SWEEZEY J KENT
By NOBLE BIRD Out of POLLY
🥇 0.6% 🥈 2.6% 🥉 7.1% Avg 5.1 ⚡ 12 longshot wins
2
THEBABESLAYER
14.2%
RPR 83
Form -2-123-3-3
Off 28d
lbs 122
ML 6-1
J ORTIZ JOSE L
T ASMUSSEN STEVEN M
By COLLECTED Out of CANDY BAY
🥇 14.2% 🥈 39.1% 🥉 70.7% Avg 2.9
3
ZIHNAL SCRATCHED
RPR 87
Form 3
Off 44d
lbs 118
ML 6-1
J ORTIZ IRAD JR
T THOMAS JONATHAN
By QUALITY ROAD Out of THEODORA B.
4
ATTFIELD
26.7%
RPR 87
Form --231
Off 43d
lbs 122
ML 9-2
J SANTANA RICARDO JR
T MORLEY THOMAS
By VEKOMA Out of GRACEFUL WITCH
🥇 26.7% 🥈 57.7% 🥉 82.7% Avg 2.4
5
PROTON
46.9%
RPR 85
Form 21-131
Off 43d
lbs 122
ML 9-5
J VELAZQUEZ J R
T MOTION H GRAHAM
By ASTERN Out of CHARGED
🥇 46.9% 🥈 75.4% 🥉 92.3% Avg 1.9
6
TURF STAR
6.0%
RPR 83
Form 11-132
Off 56d
lbs 118
ML 5-2
J RUIZ JORGE
T MOTION H GRAHAM
By CARAVAGGIO Out of STARSTRUCK
🥇 6.0% 🥈 15.4% 🥉 32.4% Avg 3.9
7
JESSICA'S EYES
5.8%
RPR 77
Form -1-1
Off 20d
lbs 118
ML 30-1
J PEREZ XAVIER
T ROBB JOHN J
By MOSLER Out of MIRACLE MISCHIEF
🥇 5.8% 🥈 9.9% 🥉 15.0% Avg 5.4 ⚡ 115 longshot wins
8
J CODY
0.0%
RPR 75
Form --11
Off 40d
lbs 118
ML 30-1
J SANCHEZ MYCHEL J
T MONTOYA MARYA
By BASIN Out of ANIMALISTIC
🥇 0.0% 🥈 0.0% 🥉 0.0% Avg 6.6

📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings

Horses ordered by Brisnet Speed Rating (BSR) — the higher the BSR, the faster the horse has run. This is Brisnet's primary selection indicator.
BSR Rank Horse Avg BSR (top-3) ML Odds Days Off Form Sim Win %
1 4 ATTFIELD SPEED LEADER 87 9-2 43d --231 26.7%
2 5 PROTON 85 9-5 43d 21-131 46.9%
3 1 MY FAVORITE BIRD 83.7 10-1 14d 213--- 0.6%
4 2 THEBABESLAYER 83.7 6-1 28d 23-3-3 14.2%
5 6 TURF STAR 83.7 5-2 56d 11-132 6.0%
6 7 JESSICA'S EYES 77 30-1 20d -1-1 5.8%
7 8 J CODY 75.3 30-1 40d --11 0.0%

BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.

Simulation Results

2,000 runs  ·  Engine v3-trajectory-bounce  ·  2026-05-21 16:53:36
# Horse Win % ↕ Place % ↕ Show % ↕ Avg Finish ↕ Best ↕ Worst ↕ Base Score ↕ BSR Rank ⚡ Longshots
1 5 PROTON
46.85%
75.40% 92.25% 1.87 1 6 106.5 #2 ≈ —
2 4 ATTFIELD
26.65%
57.70% 82.70% 2.37 1 6 103.7 #1 ≈ —
3 2 THEBABESLAYER
14.15%
39.10% 70.65% 2.86 1 6 101.6 #4 ≈ —
4 6 TURF STAR
6.00%
15.35% 32.35% 3.86 1 7 96.0 #5 ≈ —
5 7 JESSICA'S EYES
5.75%
9.85% 15.00% 5.38 1 7 83.4 #6 ≈ ⚡ 115
6 1 MY FAVORITE BIRD
0.60%
2.60% 7.05% 5.11 1 7 88.3 #3 ▼ ⚡ 12
7 8 J CODY
0.00%
0.00% 0.00% 6.56 4 7 76.4 #7 ≈ —

Win % = (times horse won ÷ 2,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.

🎯 Value Rankings

All horses sorted by Value Rating (Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied%) — highest value at the top. Horses at 10/1+ are flagged as longshots.
# Horse ML Odds ML Implied % Sim Win % Place % Show % Value Rating ⚡ Longshot Wins
1 7 JESSICA'S EYES LONGSHOT BEST VALUE 30-1 3.2%
5.75%
9.85% 15.00% ✅ 1.78x ⚡ 115
2 4 ATTFIELD 9-2 18.2%
26.65%
57.70% 82.70% 1.47x —
3 5 PROTON 9-5 35.7%
46.85%
75.40% 92.25% 1.31x —
4 2 THEBABESLAYER 6-1 14.3%
14.15%
39.10% 70.65% 0.99x —
5 6 TURF STAR 5-2 28.6%
6.00%
15.35% 32.35% 0.21x —
6 1 MY FAVORITE BIRD LONGSHOT 10-1 9.1%
0.60%
2.60% 7.05% 0.07x ⚡ 12
7 8 J CODY LONGSHOT 30-1 3.2%
0.00%
0.00% 0.00% 0.00x —

Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.

🎲 Pure Chance

If every horse had an equal shot — 7 horses, ~14.3% each

Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.

# Horse Chance Win% Sim Win% Edge Chance Bar
2 THEBABESLAYER 17.2% 14.2% -3.0%
8 J CODY 16.7% 0.0% -16.7%
1 MY FAVORITE BIRD 16.4% 0.6% -15.8%
7 JESSICA'S EYES 13.4% 5.8% -7.7%
6 TURF STAR 13.3% 6.0% -7.3%
5 PROTON 12.9% 46.9% +34.0%
4 ATTFIELD 12.4% 26.7% +14.2%

Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.

🎯 Suggested Picks

Based on 2,000 simulation runs
🥇 Top Win Picks
  1. 5 PROTON 46.9% 9-5
  2. 4 ATTFIELD 26.7% 9-2
  3. 2 THEBABESLAYER 14.2% 6-1
🥈 Top Place Picks
  1. 5 PROTON 75.4% 9-5
  2. 4 ATTFIELD 57.7% 9-2
  3. 2 THEBABESLAYER 39.1% 6-1
🥉 Top Show Picks
  1. 5 PROTON 92.3% 9-5
  2. 4 ATTFIELD 82.7% 9-2
  3. 2 THEBABESLAYER 70.7% 6-1
📋 Exacta Box
5-4-2
Box top 3 — covers all combinations
5 PROTON 4 ATTFIELD 2 THEBABESLAYER
🎲 Trifecta
5-4-2
Straight: 1st–2nd–3rd by sim rank
5 → 4-2-6
Key PROTON to win, wheel next 3 for 2nd/3rd
💫 Superfecta
5-4-2-6
Box top 4 — covers all 1st–4th combos
5/4 / 5/4 / 2/6/7 / 2/6/7
Key top 2 in 1st & 2nd; use next 3 in 3rd & 4th

🏆 Actual Results

#ProgHorse Finish Margin Odds Sim Predicted
1 6 TURF STAR — — Sim #4 (6.0% win)
2 1 MY FAVORITE BIRD — — Sim #6 (0.6% win)
3 4 ATTFIELD — — Sim #2 (26.7% win)
4 5 PROTON — — Sim #1 (46.9% win)
5 2 THEBABESLAYER — — Sim #3 (14.2% win)
6 7 JESSICA'S EYES — — Sim #5 (5.8% win)
7 8 J CODY — — Sim #7 (0.0% win)

Official winner: Turf Star

✏️ Edit Results
Prog Horse Finish Position Margin (lengths) Final Odds
6 TURF STAR
1 MY FAVORITE BIRD
4 ATTFIELD
5 PROTON
2 THEBABESLAYER
7 JESSICA'S EYES
8 J CODY
3 ZIHNAL SCR Scratched