TGENTRIES 11TH LRL MAY 16 8.5F H150000 3 BUM 1 1/16 MILES TURF THOROUGHBRED FILLIES AND MARES 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP GRADE 3 STAKE PURSE $150000 (04:53) (8 )
Field — 8 Runners
📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings
| BSR Rank | Horse | Avg BSR (top-3) | ML Odds | Days Off | Form | Sim Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 AUSTERE SPEED LEADER | 95.7 | 7-2 | 31d | 33---- | 38.0% |
| 2 | 7 CHILD OF THE MOON | 93.3 | 5-2 | 31d | ---12- | 12.0% |
| 3 | 8 AWESOME CZECH | 91.3 | 5-1 | 112d | 112--2 | 35.3% |
| 4 | 4 WARMING | 87 | 12-1 | 56d | 3--3-1 | 6.9% |
| 5 | 2 RIBALTAGAIA | 85.7 | 6-1 | 28d | ---31- | 0.4% |
| 6 | 3 ACCENT | 84.3 | 3-1 | 29d | 11-3 | 7.4% |
| 7 | 6 CHEETAH LADY | 84.3 | 12-1 | 140d | ----33 | 0.1% |
| 8 | 1 MAHRA'S LOVE | 80.5 | 15-1 | 28d | 11332- | 0.1% |
BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.
Simulation Results
| # | Horse | Win % ↕ | Place % ↕ | Show % ↕ | Avg Finish ↕ | Best ↕ | Worst ↕ | Base Score ↕ | BSR Rank | ⚡ Longshots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 AUSTERE | 67.70% | 84.20% | 2.18 | 1 | 7 | 104.9 | #1 ≈ | — | |
| 2 | 8 AWESOME CZECH | 62.55% | 80.70% | 2.32 | 1 | 7 | 104.3 | #3 ≈ | — | |
| 3 | 7 CHILD OF THE MOON | 28.75% | 50.60% | 3.44 | 1 | 8 | 99.9 | #2 ≈ | — | |
| 4 | 3 ACCENT | 20.25% | 40.50% | 3.83 | 1 | 8 | 98.4 | #6 ≈ | — | |
| 5 | 4 WARMING | 18.50% | 37.40% | 3.94 | 1 | 8 | 97.9 | #4 ≈ | ⚡ 138 | |
| 6 | 2 RIBALTAGAIA | 1.85% | 5.70% | 5.72 | 1 | 8 | 90.9 | #5 ≈ | — | |
| 7 | 1 MAHRA'S LOVE | 0.25% | 0.60% | 7.28 | 1 | 8 | 81.4 | #8 ≈ | ⚡ 1 | |
| 8 | 6 CHEETAH LADY | 0.15% | 0.30% | 7.31 | 1 | 8 | 81.5 | #7 ≈ | ⚡ 1 |
Win % = (times horse won ÷ 2,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.
🎯 Value Rankings
| # | Horse | ML Odds | ML Implied % | Sim Win % | Place % | Show % | Value Rating | ⚡ Longshot Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 AWESOME CZECH | 5-1 | 16.7% | 62.55% | 80.70% | 🔥 2.11x | — | |
| 2 | 5 AUSTERE | 7-2 | 22.2% | 67.70% | 84.20% | ✅ 1.71x | — | |
| 3 | 4 WARMING LONGSHOT BEST VALUE | 12-1 | 7.7% | 18.50% | 37.40% | 0.90x | ⚡ 138 | |
| 4 | 7 CHILD OF THE MOON | 5-2 | 28.6% | 28.75% | 50.60% | 0.42x | — | |
| 5 | 3 ACCENT | 3-1 | 25% | 20.25% | 40.50% | 0.30x | — | |
| 6 | 2 RIBALTAGAIA | 6-1 | 14.3% | 1.85% | 5.70% | 0.03x | — | |
| 7 | 1 MAHRA'S LOVE LONGSHOT | 15-1 | 6.3% | 0.25% | 0.60% | 0.01x | ⚡ 1 | |
| 8 | 6 CHEETAH LADY LONGSHOT | 12-1 | 7.7% | 0.15% | 0.30% | 0.01x | ⚡ 1 |
Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.
🎲 Pure Chance
Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.
| # | Horse | Chance Win% | Sim Win% | Edge | Chance Bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | CHEETAH LADY | 15.3% | 0.1% | -15.3% | |
| 1 | MAHRA'S LOVE | 14.4% | 0.1% | -14.4% | |
| 2 | RIBALTAGAIA | 14.3% | 0.4% | -13.9% | |
| 7 | CHILD OF THE MOON | 14.2% | 12.0% | -2.3% | |
| 3 | ACCENT | 14.1% | 7.4% | -6.7% | |
| 5 | AUSTERE | 13.9% | 38.0% | +24.1% | |
| 4 | WARMING | 12.9% | 6.9% | -6.0% | |
| 8 | AWESOME CZECH | 9.8% | 35.3% | +25.5% |
Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.
🎯 Suggested Picks
- 5 AUSTERE 38.0% 7-2
- 8 AWESOME CZECH 35.3% 5-1
- 7 CHILD OF THE MOON 12.0% 5-2
- 5 AUSTERE 67.7% 7-2
- 8 AWESOME CZECH 62.6% 5-1
- 7 CHILD OF THE MOON 28.8% 5-2
- 5 AUSTERE 84.2% 7-2
- 8 AWESOME CZECH 80.7% 5-1
- 7 CHILD OF THE MOON 50.6% 5-2
🏆 Actual Results
| # | Prog | Horse | Finish | Margin | Odds | Sim Predicted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | WARMING | — | — | Sim #5 (6.9% win) | |
| 2 | 7 | CHILD OF THE MOON | — | — | Sim #3 (12.0% win) | |
| 3 | 6 | CHEETAH LADY | — | — | Sim #8 (0.1% win) | |
| 4 | 5 | AUSTERE | — | — | Sim #1 (38.0% win) | |
| 5 | 3 | ACCENT | — | — | Sim #4 (7.4% win) | |
| 6 | 8 | AWESOME CZECH | — | — | Sim #2 (35.3% win) | |
| 7 | 2 | RIBALTAGAIA | — | — | Sim #6 (0.4% win) | |
| 8 | 1 | MAHRA'S LOVE | — | — | Sim #7 (0.1% win) |
Official winner: Warming