Import DRF Add Race

← All Races

DGENTRIES 13TH LRL MAY 16 9.5F N2000000 1 BON 1 3/16 MILES DIRT THOROUGHBRED OPEN 3 YEAR OLDS GRADE 1 STAKE PURSE $2000000 (07:01) (14)

🏟 Laurel Park 📅 2026-05-16 📏 9½F Dirt Preaknes-G1 💰 $2,000,000
📡 Fetch History

Field — 14 Runners

1
TAJ MAHAL
24.8%
RPR 94
Form -21
Off 28d
lbs 126
ML 5-1
J RUSSELL SHELDON
T RUSSELL BRITTANY T
By NYQUIST Out of OOLA GAL
🥇 24.8% 🥈 44.4% 🥉 59.3% Avg 3.7
2
OCELLI
21.6%
RPR 93
Form --223-3
Off 14d
lbs 126
ML 6-1
J GAFFALIONE TYLER
T BECKMAN D WHITWORTH
By CONNECT Out of ZALIA
🥇 21.6% 🥈 45.6% 🥉 62.9% Avg 3.3
3
CRUPPER
0.1%
RPR 83
Form 121---
Off 28d
lbs 126
ML 30-1
J ALVARADO JUNIOR
T VON HEMEL DONNIE K
By CANDY RIDE Out of SHE'S ALL IN
🥇 0.1% 🥈 0.3% 🥉 0.8% Avg 12.1 ⚡ 2 longshot wins
4
ROBUSTA
3.3%
RPR 90
Form --1-1-
Off 14d
lbs 126
ML 30-1
J BEJARANO R
T O'NEILL DOUG
By ACCELERATE Out of URBANE LEGEND
🥇 3.3% 🥈 9.0% 🥉 16.3% Avg 6.9 ⚡ 65 longshot wins
5
TALKIN
2.9%
RPR 91
Form 11221
Off 42d
lbs 126
ML 20-1
J ORTIZ IRAD JR
T GARGAN DANNY
By GOOD MAGIC Out of ROTE
🥇 2.9% 🥈 8.6% 🥉 17.1% Avg 6.3 ⚡ 57 longshot wins
6
CHIP HONCHO
7.6%
RPR 92
Form -1-112
Off 56d
lbs 126
ML 5-1
J ORTIZ JOSE L
T ASMUSSEN STEVEN M
By CONNECT Out of MISS MY ROSE
🥇 7.6% 🥈 19.4% 🥉 35.0% Avg 4.8
7
THE HELL WE DID
2.9%
RPR 87
Form 2121
Off 35d
lbs 126
ML 15-1
J SAEZ LUIS
T FINCHER TODD W
By AUTHENTIC Out of ROSE'S DESERT
🥇 2.9% 🥈 7.2% 🥉 11.8% Avg 8.1 ⚡ 57 longshot wins
8
BULL BY THE HORNS
0.0%
RPR 83
Form --323
Off 56d
lbs 126
ML 30-1
J HUSBANDS MICAH J
T JOSEPH SAFFIE A JR
By ESSENTIAL QUALITY Out of NO SWEAT
🥇 0.0% 🥈 0.1% 🥉 0.2% Avg 12.3
9
IRON HONOR
0.6%
RPR 93
Form 211
Off 42d
lbs 126
ML 9-2
J PRAT FLAVIEN
T BROWN CHAD C
By NYQUIST Out of ORENCIA
🥇 0.6% 🥈 1.6% 🥉 3.6% Avg 9.1
10
NAPOLEON SOLO
4.0%
RPR 94
Form -111
Off 42d
lbs 126
ML 8-1
J LOPEZ PASCACIO
T SUMMERS CHAD
By LIAM'S MAP Out of ATOMIC BLONDE
🥇 4.0% 🥈 11.5% 🥉 21.3% Avg 5.9
11
CORONA DE ORO
2.9%
RPR 88
Form 3123-
Off 35d
lbs 126
ML 30-1
J VELAZQUEZ J R
T STEWART DALLAS
By BOLT D'ORO Out of LEMON DE ORO
🥇 2.9% 🥈 6.0% 🥉 11.2% Avg 8.4 ⚡ 57 longshot wins
12
INCREDIBOLT
27.0%
RPR 95
Form -13-2-
Off 14d
lbs 126
ML 5-1
J TORRES JAIME A
T MOTT RILEY
By BOLT D'ORO Out of SAPPHIRE SPITFIRE
🥇 27.0% 🥈 40.2% 🥉 48.0% Avg 5.0
13
GREAT WHITE
0.0%
RPR 84
Form -1-1
Off 42d
lbs 126
ML 15-1
J ACHARD ALEX
T ENNIS JOHN
By VOLATILE Out of KELLY BAG
🥇 0.0% 🥈 0.1% 🥉 0.3% Avg 11.4
14
PRETTY BOY MIAH
2.5%
RPR 92
Form 11-2
Off 21d
lbs 126
ML 15-1
J SANTANA RICARDO JR
T ENGLEHART JEREMIAH C
By BEAU LIAM Out of TRYINGTOLOOKPRETTY
🥇 2.5% 🥈 6.3% 🥉 12.5% Avg 7.7 ⚡ 50 longshot wins

📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings

Horses ordered by Brisnet Speed Rating (BSR) — the higher the BSR, the faster the horse has run. This is Brisnet's primary selection indicator.
BSR Rank Horse Avg BSR (top-3) ML Odds Days Off Form Sim Win %
1 12 INCREDIBOLT SPEED LEADER 95.7 5-1 14d -13-2- 27.0%
2 1 TAJ MAHAL 94.3 5-1 28d -21 24.8%
3 10 NAPOLEON SOLO 94 8-1 42d -111 4.0%
4 9 IRON HONOR 93.3 9-2 42d 211 0.6%
5 2 OCELLI 93 6-1 14d -223-3 21.6%
6 6 CHIP HONCHO 92 5-1 56d -1-112 7.6%
7 14 PRETTY BOY MIAH 92 15-1 21d 11-2 2.5%
8 5 TALKIN 91 20-1 42d 11221 2.9%
9 4 ROBUSTA 90 30-1 14d --1-1- 3.3%
10 11 CORONA DE ORO 88.3 30-1 35d 3123- 2.9%
11 7 THE HELL WE DID 87 15-1 35d 2121 2.9%
12 13 GREAT WHITE 84.3 15-1 42d -1-1 0.0%
13 3 CRUPPER 83 30-1 28d 121--- 0.1%
14 8 BULL BY THE HORNS 83 30-1 56d --323 0.0%

BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.

Simulation Results

2,000 runs  ·  Engine v3-trajectory-bounce  ·  2026-05-21 16:53:36
# Horse Win % ↕ Place % ↕ Show % ↕ Avg Finish ↕ Best ↕ Worst ↕ Base Score ↕ BSR Rank ⚡ Longshots
1 12 INCREDIBOLT
27.00%
40.15% 48.00% 4.97 1 14 105.1 #1 ≈ —
2 1 TAJ MAHAL
24.80%
44.40% 59.30% 3.66 1 14 107.0 #2 ≈ —
3 2 OCELLI
21.60%
45.55% 62.90% 3.28 1 13 107.6 #5 ≈ —
4 6 CHIP HONCHO
7.60%
19.35% 34.95% 4.80 1 14 103.8 #6 ≈ —
5 10 NAPOLEON SOLO
4.00%
11.50% 21.25% 5.93 1 14 101.3 #3 ≈ —
6 4 ROBUSTA
3.25%
9.00% 16.25% 6.94 1 14 99.2 #9 ▲ ⚡ 65
7 5 TALKIN
2.85%
8.60% 17.05% 6.32 1 14 100.6 #8 ≈ ⚡ 57
8 7 THE HELL WE DID
2.85%
7.15% 11.80% 8.07 1 14 96.5 #11 ▲ ⚡ 57
9 11 CORONA DE ORO
2.85%
6.00% 11.20% 8.43 1 14 96.0 #10 ≈ ⚡ 57
10 14 PRETTY BOY MIAH
2.50%
6.25% 12.45% 7.67 1 14 98.2 #7 ▼ ⚡ 50
11 9 IRON HONOR
0.60%
1.60% 3.60% 9.11 1 14 94.7 #4 ▼ —
12 3 CRUPPER
0.10%
0.25% 0.80% 12.12 1 14 86.4 #13 ≈ ⚡ 2
13 8 BULL BY THE HORNS
0.00%
0.10% 0.15% 12.29 2 14 86.5 #14 ≈ —
14 13 GREAT WHITE
0.00%
0.10% 0.30% 11.41 2 14 89.3 #12 ≈ —

Win % = (times horse won ÷ 2,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.

🎯 Value Rankings

All horses sorted by Value Rating (Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied%) — highest value at the top. Horses at 10/1+ are flagged as longshots.
# Horse ML Odds ML Implied % Sim Win % Place % Show % Value Rating ⚡ Longshot Wins
1 12 INCREDIBOLT 5-1 16.7%
27.00%
40.15% 48.00% ✅ 1.62x —
2 2 OCELLI 6-1 14.3%
21.60%
45.55% 62.90% ✅ 1.51x —
3 1 TAJ MAHAL 5-1 16.7%
24.80%
44.40% 59.30% 1.49x —
4 4 ROBUSTA LONGSHOT BEST VALUE 30-1 3.2%
3.25%
9.00% 16.25% 1.01x ⚡ 65
5 11 CORONA DE ORO LONGSHOT 30-1 3.2%
2.85%
6.00% 11.20% 0.88x ⚡ 57
6 5 TALKIN LONGSHOT 20-1 4.8%
2.85%
8.60% 17.05% 0.60x ⚡ 57
7 6 CHIP HONCHO 5-1 16.7%
7.60%
19.35% 34.95% 0.46x —
8 7 THE HELL WE DID LONGSHOT 15-1 6.3%
2.85%
7.15% 11.80% 0.46x ⚡ 57
9 14 PRETTY BOY MIAH LONGSHOT 15-1 6.3%
2.50%
6.25% 12.45% 0.40x ⚡ 50
10 10 NAPOLEON SOLO 8-1 11.1%
4.00%
11.50% 21.25% 0.36x —
11 9 IRON HONOR 9-2 18.2%
0.60%
1.60% 3.60% 0.03x —
12 3 CRUPPER LONGSHOT 30-1 3.2%
0.10%
0.25% 0.80% 0.03x ⚡ 2
13 8 BULL BY THE HORNS LONGSHOT 30-1 3.2%
0.00%
0.10% 0.15% 0.00x —
14 13 GREAT WHITE LONGSHOT 15-1 6.3%
0.00%
0.10% 0.30% 0.00x —

Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.

🎲 Pure Chance

If every horse had an equal shot — 14 horses, ~7.1% each

Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.

# Horse Chance Win% Sim Win% Edge Chance Bar
7 THE HELL WE DID 9.0% 2.9% -6.2%
11 CORONA DE ORO 8.6% 2.9% -5.8%
9 IRON HONOR 8.6% 0.6% -8.0%
10 NAPOLEON SOLO 8.2% 4.0% -4.2%
13 GREAT WHITE 6.7% 0.0% -6.7%
12 INCREDIBOLT 6.2% 27.0% +20.8%
3 CRUPPER 6.0% 0.1% -5.9%
1 TAJ MAHAL 5.8% 24.8% +19.0%
5 TALKIN 5.5% 2.9% -2.7%
6 CHIP HONCHO 5.3% 7.6% +2.3%
4 ROBUSTA 5.2% 3.3% -1.9%
14 PRETTY BOY MIAH 4.9% 2.5% -2.4%
2 OCELLI 4.7% 21.6% +16.9%
8 BULL BY THE HORNS 4.4% 0.0% -4.4%

Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.

🎯 Suggested Picks

Based on 2,000 simulation runs
🥇 Top Win Picks
  1. 12 INCREDIBOLT 27.0% 5-1
  2. 1 TAJ MAHAL 24.8% 5-1
  3. 2 OCELLI 21.6% 6-1
🥈 Top Place Picks
  1. 2 OCELLI 45.6% 6-1
  2. 1 TAJ MAHAL 44.4% 5-1
  3. 12 INCREDIBOLT 40.2% 5-1
🥉 Top Show Picks
  1. 2 OCELLI 62.9% 6-1
  2. 1 TAJ MAHAL 59.3% 5-1
  3. 12 INCREDIBOLT 48.0% 5-1
📋 Exacta Box
12-1-2
Box top 3 — covers all combinations
12 INCREDIBOLT 1 TAJ MAHAL 2 OCELLI
🎲 Trifecta
12-1-2
Straight: 1st–2nd–3rd by sim rank
12 → 1-2-6
Key INCREDIBOLT to win, wheel next 3 for 2nd/3rd
💫 Superfecta
12-1-2-6
Box top 4 — covers all 1st–4th combos
12/1 / 12/1 / 2/6/10 / 2/6/10
Key top 2 in 1st & 2nd; use next 3 in 3rd & 4th

📋 Enter Actual Results

#ProgHorse Finish Margin Odds Sim Predicted
1 10 NAPOLEON SOLO — — Sim #5 (4.0% win)
2 9 IRON HONOR — — Sim #11 (0.6% win)
3 6 CHIP HONCHO — — Sim #4 (7.6% win)
4 2 OCELLI — — Sim #3 (21.6% win)
5 12 INCREDIBOLT — — Sim #1 (27.0% win)
— 1 TAJ MAHAL — — Sim #2 (24.8% win)
— 3 CRUPPER — — Sim #12 (0.1% win)
— 4 ROBUSTA — — Sim #6 (3.3% win)
— 5 TALKIN — — Sim #7 (2.9% win)
— 7 THE HELL WE DID — — Sim #8 (2.9% win)
— 8 BULL BY THE HORNS — — Sim #13 (0.0% win)
— 11 CORONA DE ORO — — Sim #9 (2.9% win)
— 13 GREAT WHITE — — Sim #14 (0.0% win)
— 14 PRETTY BOY MIAH — — Sim #10 (2.5% win)
✏️ Edit Results
Prog Horse Finish Position Margin (lengths) Final Odds
10 NAPOLEON SOLO
9 IRON HONOR
6 CHIP HONCHO
2 OCELLI
12 INCREDIBOLT
1 TAJ MAHAL
3 CRUPPER
4 ROBUSTA
5 TALKIN
7 THE HELL WE DID
8 BULL BY THE HORNS
11 CORONA DE ORO
13 GREAT WHITE
14 PRETTY BOY MIAH