DSENTRIES 14TH LRL MAY 16 6F J52000 0 BON 6 FURLONGS DIRT THOROUGHBRED OPEN 3 YEAR OLDS MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT PURSE $52000 (07:43) (10)
Field — 10 Runners
📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings
| BSR Rank | Horse | Avg BSR (top-3) | ML Odds | Days Off | Form | Sim Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 HOLY MOLY MITOLE SPEED LEADER | 85 | 9-2 | 28d | 2 | 26.1% |
| 2 | 4 BRUNO | 81 | 4-1 | 57d | 2 | 18.3% |
| 3 | 7 BALLINACLASH | 79.3 | 10-1 | 22d | -2-22- | 0.7% |
| 4 | 3 LOVE YOURSELF | 78.5 | 6-1 | 34d | 22 | 14.3% |
| 5 | 6 GRANT THE GREAT | 76 | 3-1 | 63d | - | 12.1% |
| 6 | 1 FUNKY SEE FUNKY DO | 67 | 6-1 | 62d | 31- | 1.0% |
| 7 | 2 IRISH NUNSENSE | — First starter | 30-1 | — | — | 2.5% |
| 8 | 5 START TAPPIN | — First starter | 15-1 | — | — | 5.9% |
| 9 | 9 MISTER MONDAY NITE | — First starter | 6-1 | — | — | 16.1% |
| 10 | 10 LEO'S FOO | — First starter | 30-1 | — | — | 3.1% |
BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.
Simulation Results
| # | Horse | Win % ↕ | Place % ↕ | Show % ↕ | Avg Finish ↕ | Best ↕ | Worst ↕ | Base Score ↕ | BSR Rank | ⚡ Longshots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 HOLY MOLY MITOLE | 43.47% | 57.35% | 3.54 | 1 | 10 | 89.2 | #1 ≈ | — | |
| 2 | 4 BRUNO | 33.13% | 46.44% | 4.15 | 1 | 10 | 85.4 | #2 ≈ | — | |
| 3 | 9 MISTER MONDAY NITE | 26.38% | 34.57% | 5.30 | 1 | 10 | 78.5 | #9 ▲ | — | |
| 4 | 3 LOVE YOURSELF | 42.62% | 70.08% | 2.91 | 1 | 9 | 90.0 | #4 ≈ | — | |
| 5 | 6 GRANT THE GREAT | 24.20% | 35.98% | 4.78 | 1 | 10 | 81.4 | #5 ≈ | — | |
| 6 | 5 START TAPPIN | 11.09% | 16.23% | 6.95 | 1 | 10 | 65.6 | #8 ≈ | ⚡ 587 | |
| 7 | 10 LEO'S FOO | 5.95% | 9.03% | 7.86 | 1 | 10 | 58.0 | #10 ▲ | ⚡ 311 | |
| 8 | 2 IRISH NUNSENSE | 5.17% | 8.02% | 7.99 | 1 | 10 | 56.1 | #7 ≈ | ⚡ 246 | |
| 9 | 1 FUNKY SEE FUNKY DO | 4.18% | 10.52% | 5.97 | 1 | 10 | 75.4 | #6 ▼ | — | |
| 10 | 7 BALLINACLASH | 3.81% | 11.78% | 5.56 | 1 | 10 | 77.6 | #3 ▼ | ⚡ 70 |
Win % = (times horse won ÷ 10,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.
🎯 Value Rankings
| # | Horse | ML Odds | ML Implied % | Sim Win % | Place % | Show % | Value Rating | ⚡ Longshot Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 HOLY MOLY MITOLE | 9-2 | 18.2% | 43.47% | 57.35% | 1.44x | — | |
| 2 | 9 MISTER MONDAY NITE | 6-1 | 14.3% | 26.38% | 34.57% | 1.12x | — | |
| 3 | 3 LOVE YOURSELF | 6-1 | 14.3% | 42.62% | 70.08% | 1.00x | — | |
| 4 | 10 LEO'S FOO LONGSHOT BEST VALUE | 30-1 | 3.2% | 5.95% | 9.03% | 0.96x | ⚡ 311 | |
| 5 | 5 START TAPPIN LONGSHOT | 15-1 | 6.3% | 11.09% | 16.23% | 0.94x | ⚡ 587 | |
| 6 | 4 BRUNO | 4-1 | 20% | 33.13% | 46.44% | 0.91x | — | |
| 7 | 2 IRISH NUNSENSE LONGSHOT | 30-1 | 3.2% | 5.17% | 8.02% | 0.76x | ⚡ 246 | |
| 8 | 6 GRANT THE GREAT | 3-1 | 25% | 24.20% | 35.98% | 0.48x | — | |
| 9 | 7 BALLINACLASH LONGSHOT | 10-1 | 9.1% | 3.81% | 11.78% | 0.08x | ⚡ 70 | |
| 10 | 1 FUNKY SEE FUNKY DO | 6-1 | 14.3% | 4.18% | 10.52% | 0.07x | — |
Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.
🎲 Pure Chance
Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.
| # | Horse | Chance Win% | Sim Win% | Edge | Chance Bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | GRANT THE GREAT | 13.0% | 12.1% | -0.9% | |
| 9 | MISTER MONDAY NITE | 12.3% | 16.1% | +3.8% | |
| 3 | LOVE YOURSELF | 12.0% | 14.3% | +2.3% | |
| 5 | START TAPPIN | 9.8% | 5.9% | -3.9% | |
| 10 | LEO'S FOO | 9.2% | 3.1% | -6.1% | |
| 1 | FUNKY SEE FUNKY DO | 9.1% | 1.0% | -8.1% | |
| 2 | IRISH NUNSENSE | 8.2% | 2.5% | -5.7% | |
| 7 | BALLINACLASH | 8.0% | 0.7% | -7.3% | |
| 8 | HOLY MOLY MITOLE | 7.9% | 26.1% | +18.2% | |
| 4 | BRUNO | 7.2% | 18.3% | +11.1% |
Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.
🎯 Suggested Picks
- 8 HOLY MOLY MITOLE 26.1% 9-2
- 4 BRUNO 18.3% 4-1
- 9 MISTER MONDAY NITE 16.1% 6-1
- 8 HOLY MOLY MITOLE 43.5% 9-2
- 3 LOVE YOURSELF 42.6% 6-1
- 4 BRUNO 33.1% 4-1
- 3 LOVE YOURSELF 70.1% 6-1
- 8 HOLY MOLY MITOLE 57.4% 9-2
- 4 BRUNO 46.4% 4-1