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TAENTRIES 7TH TAM MAY 3 8F I56500 0 BUN 1 MILE TURF THOROUGHBRED OPEN 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING PURSE $56500 (03:39) (9 )

🏟 Tampa Bay Downs 📅 2026-05-03 📏 1M Turf OClm 32000n2x 💰 $56,500
📡 Fetch History

Field — 9 Runners

1
RESURGO
1.3%
RPR 79
Form 2-
Off 15d
lbs 121
ML 12-1
J HO WESLEY
T GARDEA ABRAHAM
By FOG OF WAR Out of ANDARIEL
🥇 1.3% 🥈 4.6% 🥉 11.1% Avg 5.5 ⚡ 26 longshot wins
2
NOBLE FACTOR
18.4%
RPR 86
Form ----3-322-
Off 43d
lbs 121
ML 3-1
J GIL CIPRIANO
T ARRIAGADA JUAN
By THE FACTOR Out of PRINCESS TAYLOR
🥇 18.4% 🥈 43.4% 🥉 65.3% Avg 3.0
3
AEGON TARGARYEN
32.1%
RPR 83
Form 2111123---
Off 15d
lbs 121
ML 10-1
J MARIN SAMUEL
T BENNETT GERALD S
By THE FACTOR Out of THE GODDESS LYSSA
🥇 32.1% 🥈 44.2% 🥉 53.9% Avg 3.7 ⚡ 642 longshot wins
4
STREET EARNINGS
2.3%
RPR 89
Form 2----3-123
Off 60d
lbs 121
ML 10-1
J MALDONADO GABRIEL
T CASSE MARK
By STREET BOSS Out of SOUPER SCOOP
🥇 2.3% 🥈 6.1% 🥉 13.0% Avg 5.6 ⚡ 46 longshot wins
5
ELDEST SON
13.4%
RPR 86
Form --2-11--2-
Off 15d
lbs 121
ML 5-2
J MARTINEZ GADDIEL A
T SIMONE MICHAEL V
By INTO MISCHIEF Out of CARELLA
🥇 13.4% 🥈 27.3% 🥉 41.0% Avg 4.1
6
AMERICAN UNITY
20.7%
RPR 88
Form 123--31-32
Off 7d
lbs 121
ML 15-1
J DIAZ HECTOR RAFAEL JR
T YANEZ REYNALDO
By MUNNINGS Out of SKYDECK
🥇 20.7% 🥈 44.0% 🥉 62.3% Avg 3.1 ⚡ 413 longshot wins
7
FORTUNE SELLER
0.1%
RPR 87
Form 12122-1-3-
Off 195d
lbs 121
ML 15-1
J RODRIGUEZ ISRAEL O
T RICE KEVIN
By KITTEN'S JOY Out of VIOLINIST
🥇 0.1% 🥈 0.2% 🥉 0.4% Avg 7.9 ⚡ 1 longshot wins
8
JUAN CAMANEY
0.1%
RPR 63
Form 1-1--
Off 8d
lbs 121
ML 30-1
J JIMENEZ MANNY
T GARDEA ABRAHAM
By VOLATILE Out of SPRING DRAGON
🥇 0.1% 🥈 0.2% 🥉 0.5% Avg 8.5 ⚡ 1 longshot wins
9
THUNDERING
11.8%
RPR 89
Form -212-2222-
Off 22d
lbs 118
ML 7-2
J GONZALEZ CESAR
T RYAN DEREK S
By MOSLER Out of KEEP RIGHT
🥇 11.8% 🥈 30.3% 🥉 52.8% Avg 3.5

📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings

Horses ordered by Brisnet Speed Rating (BSR) — the higher the BSR, the faster the horse has run. This is Brisnet's primary selection indicator.
BSR Rank Horse Avg BSR (top-3) ML Odds Days Off Form Sim Win %
1 4 STREET EARNINGS SPEED LEADER 89 10-1 60d -3-123 2.3%
2 9 THUNDERING 89 7-2 22d -2222- 11.8%
3 6 AMERICAN UNITY 88 15-1 7d -31-32 20.7%
4 7 FORTUNE SELLER 87 15-1 195d 2-1-3- 0.1%
5 5 ELDEST SON 86.7 5-2 15d 11--2- 13.4%
6 2 NOBLE FACTOR 86.3 3-1 43d 3-322- 18.4%
7 3 AEGON TARGARYEN 83.3 10-1 15d 123--- 32.1%
8 1 RESURGO 79 12-1 15d 2- 1.3%
9 8 JUAN CAMANEY 63 30-1 8d 1-1-- 0.1%

BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.

Simulation Results

2,000 runs  ·  Engine v3-trajectory-bounce  ·  2026-05-21 16:53:34
# Horse Win % ↕ Place % ↕ Show % ↕ Avg Finish ↕ Best ↕ Worst ↕ Base Score ↕ BSR Rank ⚡ Longshots
1 3 AEGON TARGARYEN
32.10%
44.15% 53.90% 3.69 1 9 95.0 #7 ▲ ⚡ 642
2 6 AMERICAN UNITY
20.65%
44.00% 62.25% 3.10 1 8 94.9 #3 ≈ ⚡ 413
3 2 NOBLE FACTOR
18.40%
43.35% 65.25% 2.98 1 8 95.3 #6 ▲ —
4 5 ELDEST SON
13.35%
27.25% 40.95% 4.12 1 9 91.4 #5 ≈ —
5 9 THUNDERING
11.80%
30.30% 52.75% 3.51 1 8 93.4 #2 ▼ —
6 4 STREET EARNINGS
2.30%
6.10% 13.00% 5.60 1 9 86.1 #1 ▼ ⚡ 46
7 1 RESURGO
1.30%
4.55% 11.10% 5.54 1 9 86.4 #8 ≈ ⚡ 26
8 7 FORTUNE SELLER
0.05%
0.15% 0.35% 7.94 1 9 74.3 #4 ▼ ⚡ 1
9 8 JUAN CAMANEY
0.05%
0.15% 0.45% 8.51 1 9 67.1 #9 ≈ ⚡ 1

Win % = (times horse won ÷ 2,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.

🎯 Value Rankings

All horses sorted by Value Rating (Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied%) — highest value at the top. Horses at 10/1+ are flagged as longshots.
# Horse ML Odds ML Implied % Sim Win % Place % Show % Value Rating ⚡ Longshot Wins
1 3 AEGON TARGARYEN LONGSHOT BEST VALUE 10-1 9.1%
32.10%
44.15% 53.90% 🔥 3.53x ⚡ 642
2 6 AMERICAN UNITY LONGSHOT 15-1 6.3%
20.65%
44.00% 62.25% 🔥 3.30x ⚡ 413
3 2 NOBLE FACTOR 3-1 25%
18.40%
43.35% 65.25% 0.74x —
4 9 THUNDERING 7-2 22.2%
11.80%
30.30% 52.75% 0.53x —
5 5 ELDEST SON 5-2 28.6%
13.35%
27.25% 40.95% 0.47x —
6 4 STREET EARNINGS LONGSHOT 10-1 9.1%
2.30%
6.10% 13.00% 0.25x ⚡ 46
7 1 RESURGO LONGSHOT 12-1 7.7%
1.30%
4.55% 11.10% 0.17x ⚡ 26
8 8 JUAN CAMANEY LONGSHOT 30-1 3.2%
0.05%
0.15% 0.45% 0.02x ⚡ 1
9 7 FORTUNE SELLER LONGSHOT 15-1 6.3%
0.05%
0.15% 0.35% 0.01x ⚡ 1

Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.

🎲 Pure Chance

If every horse had an equal shot — 9 horses, ~11.1% each

Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.

# Horse Chance Win% Sim Win% Edge Chance Bar
6 AMERICAN UNITY 13.6% 20.7% +7.0%
1 RESURGO 13.3% 1.3% -12.0%
3 AEGON TARGARYEN 11.4% 32.1% +20.7%
5 ELDEST SON 11.2% 13.4% +2.2%
9 THUNDERING 10.9% 11.8% +0.9%
7 FORTUNE SELLER 10.4% 0.1% -10.4%
2 NOBLE FACTOR 9.7% 18.4% +8.7%
8 JUAN CAMANEY 9.6% 0.1% -9.5%
4 STREET EARNINGS 8.4% 2.3% -6.1%

Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.

🎯 Suggested Picks

Based on 2,000 simulation runs
🥇 Top Win Picks
  1. 3 AEGON TARGARYEN 32.1% 10-1
  2. 6 AMERICAN UNITY 20.7% 15-1
  3. 2 NOBLE FACTOR 18.4% 3-1
🥈 Top Place Picks
  1. 3 AEGON TARGARYEN 44.2% 10-1
  2. 6 AMERICAN UNITY 44.0% 15-1
  3. 2 NOBLE FACTOR 43.4% 3-1
🥉 Top Show Picks
  1. 2 NOBLE FACTOR 65.3% 3-1
  2. 6 AMERICAN UNITY 62.3% 15-1
  3. 3 AEGON TARGARYEN 53.9% 10-1
📋 Exacta Box
3-6-2
Box top 3 — covers all combinations
3 AEGON TARGARYEN 6 AMERICAN UNITY 2 NOBLE FACTOR
🎲 Trifecta
3-6-2
Straight: 1st–2nd–3rd by sim rank
3 → 6-2-5
Key AEGON TARGARYEN to win, wheel next 3 for 2nd/3rd
💫 Superfecta
3-6-2-5
Box top 4 — covers all 1st–4th combos
3/6 / 3/6 / 2/5/9 / 2/5/9
Key top 2 in 1st & 2nd; use next 3 in 3rd & 4th

🏆 Actual Results

#ProgHorse Finish Margin Odds Sim Predicted
1 1 RESURGO — — Sim #7 (1.3% win)
2 2 NOBLE FACTOR — — Sim #3 (18.4% win)
3 5 ELDEST SON — — Sim #4 (13.4% win)
4 3 AEGON TARGARYEN — — Sim #1 (32.1% win)
5 7 FORTUNE SELLER — — Sim #8 (0.1% win)
6 4 STREET EARNINGS — — Sim #6 (2.3% win)
7 6 AMERICAN UNITY — — Sim #2 (20.7% win)
8 9 THUNDERING — — Sim #5 (11.8% win)
9 8 JUAN CAMANEY — — Sim #9 (0.1% win)

Official winner: RESURGO

✏️ Edit Results
Prog Horse Finish Position Margin (lengths) Final Odds
1 RESURGO
2 NOBLE FACTOR
5 ELDEST SON
3 AEGON TARGARYEN
7 FORTUNE SELLER
4 STREET EARNINGS
6 AMERICAN UNITY
9 THUNDERING
8 JUAN CAMANEY