DAENTRIES 2ND SAR JUNE 6 7F I125000 0 BUN 7 FURLONGS DIRT THOROUGHBRED OPEN 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING PURSE $125000 (11:37) (9 )
Field — 9 Runners
📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings
| BSR Rank | Horse | Avg BSR (top-3) | ML Odds | Days Off | Form | Sim Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 LIFE AND TIMES SPEED LEADER | 98 | 9-5 | 77d | 1311 | 28.5% |
| 2 | 6 AWESOME NATIVE | 98 | 20-1 | 90d | 21--12 | 0.2% |
| 3 | 1 PARADISE VALLEY | 96 | 30-1 | 15d | -33223 | 4.6% |
| 4 | 4 INCENTIVE PAY | 95.7 | 5-1 | 63d | 1331 | 31.2% |
| 5 | 9 SENIOR OFFICER | 94.3 | 2-1 | 55d | 1221 | 12.7% |
| 6 | 7 CONTRARY THINKING | 93.7 | 8-1 | 42d | -1---1 | 14.2% |
| 7 | 5 RESILIENCE | 92.7 | 15-1 | 63d | 12-1-1 | 0.8% |
| 8 | 8 COMMUTED | 90 | 6-1 | 13d | ---11- | 6.9% |
| 9 | 2 UNLIMITEDPOTENTIAL | 89.7 | 30-1 | 34d | 1-3131 | 1.0% |
BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.
Simulation Results
| # | Horse | Win % ↕ | Place % ↕ | Show % ↕ | Avg Finish ↕ | Best ↕ | Worst ↕ | Base Score ↕ | BSR Rank | ⚡ Longshots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 INCENTIVE PAY | 57.32% | 76.42% | 2.54 | 1 | 9 | 110.4 | #4 ▲ | — | |
| 2 | 3 LIFE AND TIMES | 58.63% | 80.05% | 2.45 | 1 | 9 | 110.4 | #1 ≈ | — | |
| 3 | 7 CONTRARY THINKING | 20.42% | 26.69% | 5.90 | 1 | 9 | 94.6 | #6 ▲ | — | |
| 4 | 9 SENIOR OFFICER | 32.90% | 58.93% | 3.28 | 1 | 9 | 106.9 | #5 ≈ | — | |
| 5 | 8 COMMUTED | 13.39% | 20.71% | 5.84 | 1 | 9 | 96.7 | #8 ▲ | — | |
| 6 | 1 PARADISE VALLEY | 10.93% | 19.88% | 5.42 | 1 | 9 | 99.0 | #3 ▼ | ⚡ 457 | |
| 7 | 2 UNLIMITEDPOTENTIAL | 3.30% | 8.95% | 5.86 | 1 | 9 | 97.5 | #9 ≈ | ⚡ 104 | |
| 8 | 5 RESILIENCE | 2.53% | 6.37% | 6.53 | 1 | 9 | 94.8 | #7 ≈ | ⚡ 77 | |
| 9 | 6 AWESOME NATIVE | 0.58% | 2.00% | 7.18 | 1 | 9 | 92.1 | #2 ▼ | ⚡ 18 |
Win % = (times horse won ÷ 10,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.
🎯 Value Rankings
| # | Horse | ML Odds | ML Implied % | Sim Win % | Place % | Show % | Value Rating | ⚡ Longshot Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 INCENTIVE PAY | 5-1 | 16.7% | 57.32% | 76.42% | ✅ 1.87x | — | |
| 2 | 1 PARADISE VALLEY LONGSHOT BEST VALUE | 30-1 | 3.2% | 10.93% | 19.88% | 1.42x | ⚡ 457 | |
| 3 | 7 CONTRARY THINKING | 8-1 | 11.1% | 20.42% | 26.69% | 1.28x | — | |
| 4 | 3 LIFE AND TIMES | 9-5 | 35.7% | 58.63% | 80.05% | 0.80x | — | |
| 5 | 8 COMMUTED | 6-1 | 14.3% | 13.39% | 20.71% | 0.48x | — | |
| 6 | 9 SENIOR OFFICER | 2-1 | 33.3% | 32.90% | 58.93% | 0.38x | — | |
| 7 | 2 UNLIMITEDPOTENTIAL LONGSHOT | 30-1 | 3.2% | 3.30% | 8.95% | 0.32x | ⚡ 104 | |
| 8 | 5 RESILIENCE LONGSHOT | 15-1 | 6.3% | 2.53% | 6.37% | 0.12x | ⚡ 77 | |
| 9 | 6 AWESOME NATIVE LONGSHOT | 20-1 | 4.8% | 0.58% | 2.00% | 0.04x | ⚡ 18 |
Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.
🎲 Pure Chance
Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.
| # | Horse | Chance Win% | Sim Win% | Edge | Chance Bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | INCENTIVE PAY | 13.9% | 31.2% | +17.3% | |
| 3 | LIFE AND TIMES | 13.2% | 28.5% | +15.3% | |
| 2 | UNLIMITEDPOTENTIAL | 12.7% | 1.0% | -11.7% | |
| 6 | AWESOME NATIVE | 12.4% | 0.2% | -12.2% | |
| 8 | COMMUTED | 12.3% | 6.9% | -5.4% | |
| 7 | CONTRARY THINKING | 11.9% | 14.2% | +2.3% | |
| 1 | PARADISE VALLEY | 11.0% | 4.6% | -6.4% | |
| 5 | RESILIENCE | 10.0% | 0.8% | -9.2% | |
| 9 | SENIOR OFFICER | 8.7% | 12.7% | +4.0% |
Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.
🎯 Suggested Picks
- 4 INCENTIVE PAY 31.2% 5-1
- 3 LIFE AND TIMES 28.5% 9-5
- 7 CONTRARY THINKING 14.2% 8-1
- 3 LIFE AND TIMES 58.6% 9-5
- 4 INCENTIVE PAY 57.3% 5-1
- 9 SENIOR OFFICER 32.9% 2-1
- 3 LIFE AND TIMES 80.1% 9-5
- 4 INCENTIVE PAY 76.4% 5-1
- 9 SENIOR OFFICER 58.9% 2-1