TAENTRIES 3RD SAR JUNE 6 8.5F O125000 0 BUN 1 1/16 MILES INNER TURF THOROUGHBRED OPEN 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING PURSE $125000 (12:15) (15)
Field — 15 Runners
📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings
| BSR Rank | Horse | Avg BSR (top-3) | ML Odds | Days Off | Form | Sim Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 INTELLECT SPEED LEADER | 99 | 6-5 | 49d | -1122- | 3.6% |
| 2 | 11 LE GRIS | 96.3 | 3-1 | 14d | -1321- | 14.5% |
| 3 | 14 BIG BLUE LINE | 95.3 | 6-1 | 30d | -1223- | 3.2% |
| 4 | 12 OTELLO | 93.3 | 5-1 | 14d | 111--1 | 26.4% |
| 5 | 5 BONUS MOVE | 93 | 15-1 | 98d | ---11- | 0.3% |
| 6 | 7 SON OF A BIRCH | 93 | 10-1 | 35d | ------ | 0.8% |
| 7 | 3 CIAO CHUCK | 92.3 | 20-1 | 69d | 112111 | 21.7% |
| 8 | 2 SIGNATOR | 92 | 10-1 | 146d | -13--- | 2.2% |
| 9 | 15 CASTLE CHAOS | 92 | 8-1 | 12d | 1--3-3 | 0.7% |
| 10 | 6 TENACIOUS LEADER | 90.3 | 5-1 | 98d | 11-21- | 4.3% |
| 11 | 13 SARA'S SHAMAN | 90 | 20-1 | 13d | 31--21 | 1.2% |
| 12 | 9 CANDYTOWN | 89.7 | 4-1 | 217d | 2113-2 | 0.4% |
| 13 | 10 RANGER BATTALION | 89.7 | 5-2 | 42d | -12322 | 1.6% |
| 14 | 1 EJTIMAA | 89.3 | 12-1 | 44d | --33-1 | 11.5% |
| 15 | 4 TWO'S A CROWD | 85.3 | 10-1 | 12d | 2----- | 7.7% |
BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.
Simulation Results
| # | Horse | Win % ↕ | Place % ↕ | Show % ↕ | Avg Finish ↕ | Best ↕ | Worst ↕ | Base Score ↕ | BSR Rank | ⚡ Longshots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 OTELLO | 38.81% | 47.47% | 5.36 | 1 | 15 | 98.8 | #4 ▲ | — | |
| 2 | 3 CIAO CHUCK | 39.07% | 52.95% | 4.23 | 1 | 15 | 100.3 | #7 ▲ | ⚡ 2168 | |
| 3 | 11 LE GRIS | 34.74% | 51.93% | 3.97 | 1 | 15 | 100.2 | #2 ≈ | — | |
| 4 | 1 EJTIMAA | 26.99% | 43.82% | 4.46 | 1 | 15 | 99.1 | #14 ▲ | ⚡ 1153 | |
| 5 | 4 TWO'S A CROWD | 13.53% | 18.18% | 9.55 | 1 | 15 | 88.3 | #15 ▲ | ⚡ 770 | |
| 6 | 6 TENACIOUS LEADER | 9.50% | 14.57% | 8.74 | 1 | 15 | 90.9 | #10 ▲ | — | |
| 7 | 8 INTELLECT | 9.76% | 19.39% | 6.46 | 1 | 15 | 95.1 | #1 ▼ | — | |
| 8 | 14 BIG BLUE LINE | 7.44% | 12.47% | 8.70 | 1 | 15 | 91.0 | #3 ▼ | — | |
| 9 | 2 SIGNATOR | 5.26% | 8.72% | 10.65 | 1 | 15 | 86.2 | #8 ≈ | ⚡ 222 | |
| 10 | 10 RANGER BATTALION | 5.03% | 10.20% | 7.80 | 1 | 15 | 92.7 | #13 ▲ | — | |
| 11 | 13 SARA'S SHAMAN | 3.03% | 5.59% | 10.54 | 1 | 15 | 87.2 | #11 ≈ | ⚡ 117 | |
| 12 | 7 SON OF A BIRCH | 2.91% | 6.05% | 8.65 | 1 | 15 | 91.3 | #6 ▼ | ⚡ 82 | |
| 13 | 15 CASTLE CHAOS | 1.92% | 4.25% | 9.44 | 1 | 15 | 89.7 | #9 ▼ | — | |
| 14 | 9 CANDYTOWN | 1.25% | 2.95% | 9.97 | 1 | 15 | 88.9 | #12 ≈ | — | |
| 15 | 5 BONUS MOVE | 0.76% | 1.46% | 11.50 | 1 | 15 | 85.6 | #5 ▼ | ⚡ 28 |
Win % = (times horse won ÷ 10,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.
🎯 Value Rankings
| # | Horse | ML Odds | ML Implied % | Sim Win % | Place % | Show % | Value Rating | ⚡ Longshot Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 CIAO CHUCK LONGSHOT BEST VALUE | 20-1 | 4.8% | 39.07% | 52.95% | 🔥 4.55x | ⚡ 2168 | |
| 2 | 12 OTELLO | 5-1 | 16.7% | 38.81% | 47.47% | ✅ 1.58x | — | |
| 3 | 1 EJTIMAA LONGSHOT | 12-1 | 7.7% | 26.99% | 43.82% | ✅ 1.50x | ⚡ 1153 | |
| 4 | 4 TWO'S A CROWD LONGSHOT | 10-1 | 9.1% | 13.53% | 18.18% | 0.85x | ⚡ 770 | |
| 5 | 11 LE GRIS | 3-1 | 25% | 34.74% | 51.93% | 0.58x | — | |
| 6 | 6 TENACIOUS LEADER | 5-1 | 16.7% | 9.50% | 14.57% | 0.26x | — | |
| 7 | 13 SARA'S SHAMAN LONGSHOT | 20-1 | 4.8% | 3.03% | 5.59% | 0.25x | ⚡ 117 | |
| 8 | 2 SIGNATOR LONGSHOT | 10-1 | 9.1% | 5.26% | 8.72% | 0.24x | ⚡ 222 | |
| 9 | 14 BIG BLUE LINE | 6-1 | 14.3% | 7.44% | 12.47% | 0.23x | — | |
| 10 | 7 SON OF A BIRCH LONGSHOT | 10-1 | 9.1% | 2.91% | 6.05% | 0.09x | ⚡ 82 | |
| 11 | 8 INTELLECT | 6-5 | 45.5% | 9.76% | 19.39% | 0.08x | — | |
| 12 | 10 RANGER BATTALION | 5-2 | 28.6% | 5.03% | 10.20% | 0.06x | — | |
| 13 | 15 CASTLE CHAOS | 8-1 | 11.1% | 1.92% | 4.25% | 0.06x | — | |
| 14 | 5 BONUS MOVE LONGSHOT | 15-1 | 6.3% | 0.76% | 1.46% | 0.04x | ⚡ 28 | |
| 15 | 9 CANDYTOWN | 4-1 | 20% | 1.25% | 2.95% | 0.02x | — |
Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.
🎲 Pure Chance
Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.
| # | Horse | Chance Win% | Sim Win% | Edge | Chance Bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | CANDYTOWN | 9.6% | 0.4% | -9.2% | |
| 10 | RANGER BATTALION | 9.3% | 1.6% | -7.7% | |
| 11 | LE GRIS | 9.1% | 14.5% | +5.4% | |
| 15 | CASTLE CHAOS | 8.9% | 0.7% | -8.2% | |
| 13 | SARA'S SHAMAN | 7.4% | 1.2% | -6.2% | |
| 4 | TWO'S A CROWD | 6.7% | 7.7% | +1.0% | |
| 8 | INTELLECT | 6.6% | 3.6% | -3.0% | |
| 7 | SON OF A BIRCH | 5.7% | 0.8% | -4.9% | |
| 6 | TENACIOUS LEADER | 5.5% | 4.3% | -1.3% | |
| 12 | OTELLO | 4.7% | 26.4% | +21.7% | |
| 3 | CIAO CHUCK | 4.7% | 21.7% | +17.0% | |
| 2 | SIGNATOR | 4.7% | 2.2% | -2.5% | |
| 14 | BIG BLUE LINE | 4.5% | 3.2% | -1.3% | |
| 5 | BONUS MOVE | 4.4% | 0.3% | -4.1% | |
| 1 | EJTIMAA | 3.9% | 11.5% | +7.6% |
Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.
🎯 Suggested Picks
- 12 OTELLO 26.4% 5-1
- 3 CIAO CHUCK 21.7% 20-1
- 11 LE GRIS 14.5% 3-1
- 3 CIAO CHUCK 39.1% 20-1
- 12 OTELLO 38.8% 5-1
- 11 LE GRIS 34.7% 3-1
- 3 CIAO CHUCK 53.0% 20-1
- 11 LE GRIS 51.9% 3-1
- 12 OTELLO 47.5% 5-1