DAENTRIES 4TH SAR JUNE 6 6.5F J120000 0 BUM 6 1/2 FURLONGS DIRT THOROUGHBRED FILLIES AND MARES 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING PURSE $120000 (12:53) (10)
Field — 10 Runners
📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings
| BSR Rank | Horse | Avg BSR (top-3) | ML Odds | Days Off | Form | Sim Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 SPEIGHTFUL LILY SPEED LEADER | 93.3 | 6-1 | 413d | 31-121 | 14.2% |
| 2 | 2 NAIVE MELODY | 90.3 | 3-1 | 55d | 1131 | 16.0% |
| 3 | 5 I'M A CUTIE PIE | 89 | 30-1 | 55d | 1-1--1 | 6.3% |
| 4 | 1 P MUTTER PICKLE | 88.7 | 8-1 | 27d | 2-3-21 | 13.0% |
| 5 | 7 HELEN'S REVENGE | 87.7 | 8-1 | 30d | 131--- | 5.4% |
| 6 | 9 MILA CANDY | 87 | 30-1 | 28d | 2-1-12 | 4.0% |
| 7 | 6 CHATTER | 86.3 | 4-1 | 57d | -2-31- | 29.5% |
| 8 | 3 STEER CLEAR | 83.3 | 7-2 | 245d | 112 | 2.5% |
| 9 | 8 COACH ALBERT LADY | 82 | 8-1 | 21d | 2-32-3 | 9.1% |
| 10 | 10 SPECTACULAR GREY | 73 | 12-1 | 314d | -1 | 0.0% |
BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.
Simulation Results
| # | Horse | Win % ↕ | Place % ↕ | Show % ↕ | Avg Finish ↕ | Best ↕ | Worst ↕ | Base Score ↕ | BSR Rank | ⚡ Longshots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 CHATTER | 45.17% | 56.53% | 3.68 | 1 | 10 | 98.4 | #7 ▲ | — | |
| 2 | 2 NAIVE MELODY | 38.32% | 58.75% | 3.34 | 1 | 10 | 98.1 | #2 ≈ | — | |
| 3 | 4 SPEIGHTFUL LILY | 27.88% | 39.76% | 4.56 | 1 | 10 | 94.6 | #1 ≈ | — | |
| 4 | 1 P MUTTER PICKLE | 24.91% | 35.66% | 4.92 | 1 | 10 | 93.2 | #4 ≈ | — | |
| 5 | 8 COACH ALBERT LADY | 15.55% | 20.81% | 6.69 | 1 | 10 | 85.0 | #9 ▲ | — | |
| 6 | 5 I'M A CUTIE PIE | 17.75% | 31.65% | 4.75 | 1 | 10 | 93.7 | #3 ▼ | ⚡ 634 | |
| 7 | 7 HELEN'S REVENGE | 12.83% | 22.68% | 5.62 | 1 | 10 | 90.6 | #5 ≈ | — | |
| 8 | 9 MILA CANDY | 9.21% | 15.31% | 6.56 | 1 | 10 | 86.8 | #6 ≈ | ⚡ 404 | |
| 9 | 3 STEER CLEAR | 8.35% | 18.74% | 5.40 | 1 | 10 | 91.6 | #8 ≈ | — | |
| 10 | 10 SPECTACULAR GREY | 0.03% | 0.11% | 9.49 | 2 | 10 | 72.7 | #10 ≈ | — |
Win % = (times horse won ÷ 10,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.
🎯 Value Rankings
| # | Horse | ML Odds | ML Implied % | Sim Win % | Place % | Show % | Value Rating | ⚡ Longshot Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 I'M A CUTIE PIE LONGSHOT BEST VALUE | 30-1 | 3.2% | 17.75% | 31.65% | ✅ 1.97x | ⚡ 634 | |
| 2 | 6 CHATTER | 4-1 | 20% | 45.17% | 56.53% | 1.47x | — | |
| 3 | 9 MILA CANDY LONGSHOT | 30-1 | 3.2% | 9.21% | 15.31% | 1.25x | ⚡ 404 | |
| 4 | 1 P MUTTER PICKLE | 8-1 | 11.1% | 24.91% | 35.66% | 1.17x | — | |
| 5 | 4 SPEIGHTFUL LILY | 6-1 | 14.3% | 27.88% | 39.76% | 0.99x | — | |
| 6 | 8 COACH ALBERT LADY | 8-1 | 11.1% | 15.55% | 20.81% | 0.82x | — | |
| 7 | 2 NAIVE MELODY | 3-1 | 25% | 38.32% | 58.75% | 0.64x | — | |
| 8 | 7 HELEN'S REVENGE | 8-1 | 11.1% | 12.83% | 22.68% | 0.49x | — | |
| 9 | 3 STEER CLEAR | 7-2 | 22.2% | 8.35% | 18.74% | 0.11x | — | |
| 10 | 10 SPECTACULAR GREY LONGSHOT | 12-1 | 7.7% | 0.03% | 0.11% | 0.00x | — |
Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.
🎲 Pure Chance
Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.
| # | Horse | Chance Win% | Sim Win% | Edge | Chance Bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P MUTTER PICKLE | 12.7% | 13.0% | +0.3% | |
| 10 | SPECTACULAR GREY | 11.9% | 0.0% | -11.9% | |
| 4 | SPEIGHTFUL LILY | 11.8% | 14.2% | +2.4% | |
| 7 | HELEN'S REVENGE | 11.3% | 5.4% | -5.9% | |
| 3 | STEER CLEAR | 10.8% | 2.5% | -8.3% | |
| 6 | CHATTER | 9.6% | 29.5% | +19.9% | |
| 8 | COACH ALBERT LADY | 9.6% | 9.1% | -0.5% | |
| 9 | MILA CANDY | 8.7% | 4.0% | -4.7% | |
| 2 | NAIVE MELODY | 8.6% | 16.0% | +7.4% | |
| 5 | I'M A CUTIE PIE | 8.2% | 6.3% | -1.9% |
Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.
🎯 Suggested Picks
- 6 CHATTER 29.5% 4-1
- 2 NAIVE MELODY 16.0% 3-1
- 4 SPEIGHTFUL LILY 14.2% 6-1
- 6 CHATTER 45.2% 4-1
- 2 NAIVE MELODY 38.3% 3-1
- 4 SPEIGHTFUL LILY 27.9% 6-1
- 2 NAIVE MELODY 58.8% 3-1
- 6 CHATTER 56.5% 4-1
- 4 SPEIGHTFUL LILY 39.8% 6-1