TAENTRIES 5TH SAR JUNE 6 8.5F O120000 0 BUM 1 1/16 MILES TURF THOROUGHBRED FILLIES AND MARES 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP ALLOWANCE PURSE $120000 (01:31) (15)
Field — 15 Runners
📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings
| BSR Rank | Horse | Avg BSR (top-3) | ML Odds | Days Off | Form | Sim Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 CURLIN'S ANGEL SPEED LEADER | 88.7 | 5-1 | 49d | 1--3 | 8.7% |
| 2 | 13 BRUNCH WITH AMY | 88.3 | 4-1 | 27d | --2132 | 15.7% |
| 3 | 15 SOUNDBITE | 88.3 | 6-1 | 48d | -2213- | 1.9% |
| 4 | 12 KADENA | 88 | 8-1 | 28d | 112--2 | 4.8% |
| 5 | 10 IMPERATRICE | 86.3 | 5-1 | 41d | 21212 | 33.1% |
| 6 | 8 SCARLETT'S HALO | 85.3 | 6-1 | 49d | ---1-- | 0.2% |
| 7 | 1 ETAWA | 85 | 8-1 | 44d | 1---33 | 6.3% |
| 8 | 7 TIZNOW MAMA | 82.7 | 20-1 | 114d | 1-13-- | 7.6% |
| 9 | 2 EPONINE | 81 | 3-1 | 287d | -22-11 | 13.4% |
| 10 | 4 SONJA HENIE | 80.3 | 10-1 | 70d | 1-3-1- | 2.1% |
| 11 | 14 SPARKLING MAMA | 78.7 | 10-1 | 23d | -12--3 | 1.1% |
| 12 | 9 MARKETPLACEOFIDEAS | 77.3 | 9-2 | 44d | 3--1 | 0.1% |
| 13 | 11 Y'ALLREADYFORTHIS | 76 | 50-1 | 13d | 3----1 | 0.0% |
| 14 | 5 STARSHIP ATHENA | 74.3 | 20-1 | 22d | 13- | 3.2% |
| 15 | 3 CARMENSITA | — First starter | 15-1 | 217d | 122--- | 2.0% |
BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.
Simulation Results
| # | Horse | Win % ↕ | Place % ↕ | Show % ↕ | Avg Finish ↕ | Best ↕ | Worst ↕ | Base Score ↕ | BSR Rank | ⚡ Longshots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 IMPERATRICE | 53.65% | 66.64% | 3.24 | 1 | 15 | 96.8 | #5 ▲ | — | |
| 2 | 13 BRUNCH WITH AMY | 35.27% | 52.21% | 3.91 | 1 | 14 | 94.1 | #2 ≈ | — | |
| 3 | 2 EPONINE | 20.77% | 26.82% | 8.08 | 1 | 15 | 84.5 | #9 ▲ | — | |
| 4 | 6 CURLIN'S ANGEL | 20.10% | 32.52% | 5.48 | 1 | 15 | 90.5 | #1 ▼ | — | |
| 5 | 7 TIZNOW MAMA | 14.04% | 19.84% | 8.55 | 1 | 15 | 83.2 | #8 ▲ | ⚡ 759 | |
| 6 | 1 ETAWA | 15.78% | 26.01% | 6.14 | 1 | 15 | 89.2 | #7 ≈ | — | |
| 7 | 12 KADENA | 13.70% | 26.11% | 5.52 | 1 | 15 | 90.1 | #4 ▼ | — | |
| 8 | 5 STARSHIP ATHENA | 8.29% | 14.66% | 7.48 | 1 | 15 | 86.4 | #14 ▲ | ⚡ 318 | |
| 9 | 4 SONJA HENIE | 5.03% | 9.35% | 8.33 | 1 | 15 | 84.4 | #10 ≈ | ⚡ 205 | |
| 10 | 3 CARMENSITA | 3.63% | 5.42% | 12.28 | 1 | 15 | 69.9 | #15 ▲ | ⚡ 196 | |
| 11 | 15 SOUNDBITE | 5.54% | 11.24% | 7.43 | 1 | 15 | 86.3 | #3 ▼ | — | |
| 12 | 14 SPARKLING MAMA | 3.16% | 6.66% | 8.75 | 1 | 15 | 83.6 | #11 ≈ | ⚡ 112 | |
| 13 | 8 SCARLETT'S HALO | 0.65% | 1.45% | 10.50 | 1 | 15 | 80.0 | #6 ▼ | — | |
| 14 | 9 MARKETPLACEOFIDEAS | 0.36% | 0.97% | 10.80 | 1 | 15 | 79.2 | #12 ≈ | — | |
| 15 | 11 Y'ALLREADYFORTHIS | 0.03% | 0.10% | 13.53 | 2 | 15 | 70.0 | #13 ≈ | — |
Win % = (times horse won ÷ 10,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.
🎯 Value Rankings
| # | Horse | ML Odds | ML Implied % | Sim Win % | Place % | Show % | Value Rating | ⚡ Longshot Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 IMPERATRICE | 5-1 | 16.7% | 53.65% | 66.64% | ✅ 1.99x | — | |
| 2 | 7 TIZNOW MAMA LONGSHOT BEST VALUE | 20-1 | 4.8% | 14.04% | 19.84% | ✅ 1.59x | ⚡ 759 | |
| 3 | 13 BRUNCH WITH AMY | 4-1 | 20% | 35.27% | 52.21% | 0.78x | — | |
| 4 | 5 STARSHIP ATHENA LONGSHOT | 20-1 | 4.8% | 8.29% | 14.66% | 0.67x | ⚡ 318 | |
| 5 | 1 ETAWA | 8-1 | 11.1% | 15.78% | 26.01% | 0.57x | — | |
| 6 | 2 EPONINE | 3-1 | 25% | 20.77% | 26.82% | 0.54x | — | |
| 7 | 6 CURLIN'S ANGEL | 5-1 | 16.7% | 20.10% | 32.52% | 0.52x | — | |
| 8 | 12 KADENA | 8-1 | 11.1% | 13.70% | 26.11% | 0.43x | — | |
| 9 | 3 CARMENSITA LONGSHOT | 15-1 | 6.3% | 3.63% | 5.42% | 0.31x | ⚡ 196 | |
| 10 | 4 SONJA HENIE LONGSHOT | 10-1 | 9.1% | 5.03% | 9.35% | 0.23x | ⚡ 205 | |
| 11 | 15 SOUNDBITE | 6-1 | 14.3% | 5.54% | 11.24% | 0.14x | — | |
| 12 | 14 SPARKLING MAMA LONGSHOT | 10-1 | 9.1% | 3.16% | 6.66% | 0.12x | ⚡ 112 | |
| 13 | 8 SCARLETT'S HALO | 6-1 | 14.3% | 0.65% | 1.45% | 0.01x | — | |
| 14 | 9 MARKETPLACEOFIDEAS | 9-2 | 18.2% | 0.36% | 0.97% | 0.00x | — | |
| 15 | 11 Y'ALLREADYFORTHIS LONGSHOT | 50-1 | 2% | 0.03% | 0.10% | 0.00x | — |
Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.
🎲 Pure Chance
Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.
| # | Horse | Chance Win% | Sim Win% | Edge | Chance Bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | EPONINE | 9.5% | 13.4% | +3.9% | |
| 15 | SOUNDBITE | 9.4% | 1.9% | -7.5% | |
| 4 | SONJA HENIE | 9.1% | 2.1% | -7.1% | |
| 8 | SCARLETT'S HALO | 9.0% | 0.2% | -8.9% | |
| 7 | TIZNOW MAMA | 8.9% | 7.6% | -1.3% | |
| 12 | KADENA | 8.5% | 4.8% | -3.7% | |
| 11 | Y'ALLREADYFORTHIS | 8.2% | 0.0% | -8.2% | |
| 9 | MARKETPLACEOFIDEAS | 8.1% | 0.1% | -8.0% | |
| 6 | CURLIN'S ANGEL | 8.0% | 8.7% | +0.7% | |
| 1 | ETAWA | 7.7% | 6.3% | -1.4% | |
| 14 | SPARKLING MAMA | 7.6% | 1.1% | -6.5% | |
| 3 | CARMENSITA | 7.5% | 2.0% | -5.5% | |
| 10 | IMPERATRICE | 6.6% | 33.1% | +26.5% | |
| 5 | STARSHIP ATHENA | 6.3% | 3.2% | -3.1% | |
| 13 | BRUNCH WITH AMY | 5.5% | 15.7% | +10.2% |
Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.
🎯 Suggested Picks
- 10 IMPERATRICE 33.1% 5-1
- 13 BRUNCH WITH AMY 15.7% 4-1
- 2 EPONINE 13.4% 3-1
- 10 IMPERATRICE 53.7% 5-1
- 13 BRUNCH WITH AMY 35.3% 4-1
- 2 EPONINE 20.8% 3-1
- 10 IMPERATRICE 66.6% 5-1
- 13 BRUNCH WITH AMY 52.2% 4-1
- 6 CURLIN'S ANGEL 32.5% 5-1