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TGENTRIES 7TH SAR JUNE 6 8F H500000 1 CUM 1 MILE INNER TURF THOROUGHBRED FILLIES AND MARES 4 YEAR OLDS AND UP GRADE 1 STAKE PURSE $500000 (02:47) (8 )

🏟 Saratoga 📅 2026-06-06 📏 1M Turf JsAGm-G1 💰 $500,000
📡 Fetch History

Field — 8 Runners

1
CLASSIC Q
7.0%
RPR 92
Form 1222--21--
Off 35d
lbs 122
ML 6-1
J VELAZQUEZ J R
T CASSE MARK
By CLASSIC EMPIRE Out of LOVELY EM
🥇 7.0% 🥈 19.5% 🥉 38.0% Avg 4.1
2
SANDTRAP
11.8%
RPR 87
Form -21
Off 49d
lbs 120
ML 3-1
J FRANCO MANUEL
T BROWN CHAD C
By LOPE DE VEGA Out of ZINDAYA
🥇 11.8% 🥈 19.1% 🥉 25.7% Avg 5.5
3
SEGESTA
29.7%
RPR 94
Form 132313-111
Off 56d
lbs 124
ML 7-5
J PRAT FLAVIEN
T BROWN CHAD C
By GHOSTZAPPER Out of ANTONOE
🥇 29.7% 🥈 57.0% 🥉 75.1% Avg 2.6
4
MANDANABA
21.8%
Form 1--311
Off 44d
lbs 122
ML 9-2
J LECOEUVRE CLEMENT
T GRAFFARD FRANCIS - HENRI
By GHAIYYATH Out of MANDESHA
🥇 21.8% 🥈 31.3% 🥉 38.9% Avg 4.6
5
AND ONE MORE TIME
6.1%
RPR 91
Form 1122211-
Off 50d
lbs 120
ML 8-1
J CASTELLANO J J
T CASSE MARK
By OMAHA BEACH Out of COMPLICATED
🥇 6.1% 🥈 17.3% 🥉 33.3% Avg 4.3
6
FAST MARKET
2.8%
RPR 88
Form -3-3-2-121
Off 56d
lbs 122
ML 20-1
J DAVIS DYLAN
T TERRANOVA JOHN P II
By VOLATILE Out of BETTY DRAPER
🥇 2.8% 🥈 9.8% 🥉 20.3% Avg 5.0 ⚡ 284 longshot wins
7
BUTTERCREAM BABE
0.2%
RPR 89
Form 31---1-1-1
Off 34d
lbs 120
ML 15-1
J SAEZ LUIS
T ARNOLD GEORGE R II
By TWIRLING CANDY Out of RUNWAY READY
🥇 0.2% 🥈 0.8% 🥉 1.9% Avg 6.9 ⚡ 24 longshot wins
8
DEEP SATIN
20.5%
RPR 95
Form 23-313221-
Off 56d
lbs 120
ML 12-1
J ORTIZ JOSE L
T DEVAUX CHERIE
By AMERICAN PHAROAH Out of TAKE THE RIBBON
🥇 20.5% 🥈 45.4% 🥉 66.9% Avg 3.0 ⚡ 2045 longshot wins

📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings

Horses ordered by Brisnet Speed Rating (BSR) — the higher the BSR, the faster the horse has run. This is Brisnet's primary selection indicator.
BSR Rank Horse Avg BSR (top-3) ML Odds Days Off Form Sim Win %
1 8 DEEP SATIN SPEED LEADER 95 12-1 56d 13221- 20.5%
2 3 SEGESTA 94.3 7-5 56d 13-111 29.7%
3 1 CLASSIC Q 92 6-1 35d --21-- 7.0%
4 5 AND ONE MORE TIME 91.7 8-1 50d 22211- 6.1%
5 7 BUTTERCREAM BABE 89.3 15-1 34d -1-1-1 0.2%
6 6 FAST MARKET 88 20-1 56d -2-121 2.8%
7 2 SANDTRAP 87 3-1 49d -21 11.8%
8 4 MANDANABA — First starter 9-2 44d 1--311 21.8%

BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.

Simulation Results

10,000 runs  ·  Engine v3-trajectory-bounce  ·  2026-07-21 21:06:31
# Horse Win % ↕ Place % ↕ Show % ↕ Avg Finish ↕ Best ↕ Worst ↕ Base Score ↕ BSR Rank ⚡ Longshots
1 3 SEGESTA
29.73%
56.97% 75.13% 2.59 1 8 109.9 #2 ≈ —
2 4 MANDANABA
21.82%
31.27% 38.86% 4.63 1 8 101.8 #8 ▲ —
3 8 DEEP SATIN
20.45%
45.35% 66.88% 2.96 1 8 108.1 #1 ≈ ⚡ 2045
4 2 SANDTRAP
11.80%
19.05% 25.69% 5.54 1 8 96.4 #7 ▲ —
5 1 CLASSIC Q
7.01%
19.45% 37.99% 4.09 1 8 104.2 #3 ≈ —
6 5 AND ONE MORE TIME
6.11%
17.32% 33.30% 4.32 1 8 103.4 #4 ≈ —
7 6 FAST MARKET
2.84%
9.84% 20.30% 4.96 1 8 101.2 #6 ≈ ⚡ 284
8 7 BUTTERCREAM BABE
0.24%
0.75% 1.85% 6.91 1 8 93.0 #5 ▼ ⚡ 24

Win % = (times horse won ÷ 10,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.

🎯 Value Rankings

All horses sorted by Value Rating (Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied%) — highest value at the top. Horses at 10/1+ are flagged as longshots.
# Horse ML Odds ML Implied % Sim Win % Place % Show % Value Rating ⚡ Longshot Wins
1 8 DEEP SATIN LONGSHOT BEST VALUE 12-1 7.7%
20.45%
45.35% 66.88% 🔥 2.66x ⚡ 2045
2 4 MANDANABA 9-2 18.2%
21.82%
31.27% 38.86% 1.20x —
3 3 SEGESTA 7-5 41.7%
29.73%
56.97% 75.13% 0.71x —
4 6 FAST MARKET LONGSHOT 20-1 4.8%
2.84%
9.84% 20.30% 0.60x ⚡ 284
5 5 AND ONE MORE TIME 8-1 11.1%
6.11%
17.32% 33.30% 0.55x —
6 1 CLASSIC Q 6-1 14.3%
7.01%
19.45% 37.99% 0.49x —
7 2 SANDTRAP 3-1 25%
11.80%
19.05% 25.69% 0.47x —
8 7 BUTTERCREAM BABE LONGSHOT 15-1 6.3%
0.24%
0.75% 1.85% 0.04x ⚡ 24

Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.

🎲 Pure Chance

If every horse had an equal shot — 8 horses, ~12.5% each

Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.

# Horse Chance Win% Sim Win% Edge Chance Bar
1 CLASSIC Q 15.3% 7.0% -8.3%
7 BUTTERCREAM BABE 14.2% 0.2% -14.0%
2 SANDTRAP 14.0% 11.8% -2.2%
5 AND ONE MORE TIME 13.9% 6.1% -7.8%
6 FAST MARKET 13.9% 2.8% -11.1%
8 DEEP SATIN 13.7% 20.5% +6.8%
3 SEGESTA 10.6% 29.7% +19.1%
4 MANDANABA 9.9% 21.8% +11.9%

Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.

🎯 Suggested Picks

Based on 10,000 simulation runs
🥇 Top Win Picks
  1. 3 SEGESTA 29.7% 7-5
  2. 4 MANDANABA 21.8% 9-2
  3. 8 DEEP SATIN 20.5% 12-1
🥈 Top Place Picks
  1. 3 SEGESTA 57.0% 7-5
  2. 8 DEEP SATIN 45.4% 12-1
  3. 4 MANDANABA 31.3% 9-2
🥉 Top Show Picks
  1. 3 SEGESTA 75.1% 7-5
  2. 8 DEEP SATIN 66.9% 12-1
  3. 4 MANDANABA 38.9% 9-2
📋 Exacta Box
3-4-8
Box top 3 — covers all combinations
3 SEGESTA 4 MANDANABA 8 DEEP SATIN
🎲 Trifecta
3-4-8
Straight: 1st–2nd–3rd by sim rank
3 → 4-8-2
Key SEGESTA to win, wheel next 3 for 2nd/3rd
💫 Superfecta
3-4-8-2
Box top 4 — covers all 1st–4th combos
3/4 / 3/4 / 8/2/1 / 8/2/1
Key top 2 in 1st & 2nd; use next 3 in 3rd & 4th

📋 Enter Actual Results

+ Enter Finish Positions
Prog Horse Finish Position Margin (lengths) Final Odds
1 CLASSIC Q
2 SANDTRAP
3 SEGESTA
4 MANDANABA
5 AND ONE MORE TIME
6 FAST MARKET
7 BUTTERCREAM BABE
8 DEEP SATIN