TGENTRIES 9TH SAR JUNE 6 5.5F J500000 1 BUN 5 1/2 FURLONGS TURF THOROUGHBRED OPEN 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP GRADE 1 STAKE PURSE $500000 (04:13) (10)
Field — 10 Runners
📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings
| BSR Rank | Horse | Avg BSR (top-3) | ML Odds | Days Off | Form | Sim Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 AG BULLET SPEED LEADER | 101.7 | 3-1 | 188d | -13111 | 0.4% |
| 2 | 4 WORKS FOR ME | 98.7 | 6-1 | 49d | 213-12 | 6.2% |
| 3 | 2 BOLD JOURNEY | 97.7 | 30-1 | 50d | -222-2 | 0.6% |
| 4 | 3 LITIGATION | 97.7 | 7-2 | 35d | -12111 | 38.1% |
| 5 | 10 MY BOY PRINCE | 97.7 | 5-1 | 35d | 221221 | 31.0% |
| 6 | 5 REEF RUNNER | 97 | 4-1 | 70d | 121332 | 3.9% |
| 7 | 9 TWENTY SIX BLACK | 96 | 12-1 | 35d | 2---12 | 0.8% |
| 8 | 1 GOVERNOR SAM | 94.7 | 15-1 | 34d | 21-331 | 18.0% |
| 9 | 8 JOHN THE BEER MAN | 90.3 | 10-1 | 42d | 113-- | 0.8% |
| 10 | 7 CLOCK TOWER | 89 | 20-1 | 35d | 111113 | 0.1% |
BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.
Simulation Results
| # | Horse | Win % ↕ | Place % ↕ | Show % ↕ | Avg Finish ↕ | Best ↕ | Worst ↕ | Base Score ↕ | BSR Rank | ⚡ Longshots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 LITIGATION | 66.36% | 81.86% | 2.31 | 1 | 10 | 118.4 | #4 ▲ | — | |
| 2 | 10 MY BOY PRINCE | 43.21% | 51.55% | 4.43 | 1 | 10 | 112.2 | #5 ▲ | — | |
| 3 | 1 GOVERNOR SAM | 47.43% | 73.60% | 2.83 | 1 | 10 | 115.1 | #8 ▲ | ⚡ 1800 | |
| 4 | 4 WORKS FOR ME | 17.55% | 32.48% | 4.82 | 1 | 10 | 108.5 | #2 ≈ | — | |
| 5 | 5 REEF RUNNER | 14.24% | 31.62% | 4.60 | 1 | 10 | 108.9 | #6 ≈ | — | |
| 6 | 9 TWENTY SIX BLACK | 3.50% | 9.54% | 6.19 | 1 | 10 | 104.3 | #7 ≈ | ⚡ 81 | |
| 7 | 8 JOHN THE BEER MAN | 2.61% | 5.94% | 7.78 | 1 | 10 | 98.4 | #9 ≈ | ⚡ 76 | |
| 8 | 2 BOLD JOURNEY | 2.54% | 5.69% | 7.63 | 1 | 10 | 99.2 | #3 ▼ | ⚡ 55 | |
| 9 | 6 AG BULLET | 1.84% | 5.26% | 6.83 | 1 | 10 | 102.3 | #1 ▼ | — | |
| 10 | 7 CLOCK TOWER | 0.72% | 2.46% | 7.60 | 1 | 10 | 100.1 | #10 ≈ | ⚡ 13 |
Win % = (times horse won ÷ 10,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.
🎯 Value Rankings
| # | Horse | ML Odds | ML Implied % | Sim Win % | Place % | Show % | Value Rating | ⚡ Longshot Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 GOVERNOR SAM LONGSHOT BEST VALUE | 15-1 | 6.3% | 47.43% | 73.60% | 🔥 2.88x | ⚡ 1800 | |
| 2 | 10 MY BOY PRINCE | 5-1 | 16.7% | 43.21% | 51.55% | ✅ 1.86x | — | |
| 3 | 3 LITIGATION | 7-2 | 22.2% | 66.36% | 81.86% | ✅ 1.72x | — | |
| 4 | 4 WORKS FOR ME | 6-1 | 14.3% | 17.55% | 32.48% | 0.44x | — | |
| 5 | 5 REEF RUNNER | 4-1 | 20% | 14.24% | 31.62% | 0.20x | — | |
| 6 | 2 BOLD JOURNEY LONGSHOT | 30-1 | 3.2% | 2.54% | 5.69% | 0.17x | ⚡ 55 | |
| 7 | 9 TWENTY SIX BLACK LONGSHOT | 12-1 | 7.7% | 3.50% | 9.54% | 0.11x | ⚡ 81 | |
| 8 | 8 JOHN THE BEER MAN LONGSHOT | 10-1 | 9.1% | 2.61% | 5.94% | 0.08x | ⚡ 76 | |
| 9 | 7 CLOCK TOWER LONGSHOT | 20-1 | 4.8% | 0.72% | 2.46% | 0.03x | ⚡ 13 | |
| 10 | 6 AG BULLET | 3-1 | 25% | 1.84% | 5.26% | 0.02x | — |
Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.
🎲 Pure Chance
Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.
| # | Horse | Chance Win% | Sim Win% | Edge | Chance Bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | WORKS FOR ME | 12.8% | 6.2% | -6.6% | |
| 6 | AG BULLET | 12.4% | 0.4% | -12.0% | |
| 5 | REEF RUNNER | 12.0% | 3.9% | -8.1% | |
| 1 | GOVERNOR SAM | 11.1% | 18.0% | +6.9% | |
| 3 | LITIGATION | 10.5% | 38.1% | +27.6% | |
| 2 | BOLD JOURNEY | 9.8% | 0.6% | -9.3% | |
| 7 | CLOCK TOWER | 9.5% | 0.1% | -9.4% | |
| 9 | TWENTY SIX BLACK | 7.6% | 0.8% | -6.8% | |
| 8 | JOHN THE BEER MAN | 7.6% | 0.8% | -6.8% | |
| 10 | MY BOY PRINCE | 7.3% | 31.0% | +23.7% |
Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.
🎯 Suggested Picks
- 3 LITIGATION 38.1% 7-2
- 10 MY BOY PRINCE 31.0% 5-1
- 1 GOVERNOR SAM 18.0% 15-1
- 3 LITIGATION 66.4% 7-2
- 1 GOVERNOR SAM 47.4% 15-1
- 10 MY BOY PRINCE 43.2% 5-1
- 3 LITIGATION 81.9% 7-2
- 1 GOVERNOR SAM 73.6% 15-1
- 10 MY BOY PRINCE 51.6% 5-1