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DSENTRIES 8TH TAM MAY 3 5.5F K55000 0 BON 5 1/2 FURLONGS DIRT THOROUGHBRED OPEN 3 YEAR OLDS MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT PURSE $55000 (04:20) (11)

🏟 Tampa Bay Downs 📅 2026-05-03 📏 5½F Dirt Md Sp Wt 💰 $55,000
📡 Fetch History

Field — 11 Runners

1
KING MORPHEUS
16.9%
lbs 119
ML 6-1
J GIL CIPRIANO
T D'ANGELO JOSE FRANCISCO
By WIN WIN WIN Out of PRIZE INFORMANT
🥇 16.9% 🥈 28.2% 🥉 36.5% Avg 5.4
2
GUN POLICY
0.8%
RPR 44
Form --
Off 35d
lbs 119
ML 12-1
J VILLA-GOMEZ H
T RICE KEVIN
By GUN RUNNER Out of ROCKY POLICY
🥇 0.8% 🥈 2.5% 🥉 3.8% Avg 9.3 ⚡ 16 longshot wins
3
MO BEACH TIME
2.7%
RPR 72
Form -1---1--
Off 37d
lbs 119
ML 8-1
J HESS SARA
T GOODWIN NIK G
By OMAHA BEACH Out of IT'S MO TIME
🥇 2.7% 🥈 9.1% 🥉 19.2% Avg 5.3
4
VALIANT SUPRISE
3.4%
lbs 119
ML 20-1
J SUAREZ JESUS
T TORRES PABLO R
By VALIANT MINISTER Out of SUNNY SUPRISE
🥇 3.4% 🥈 7.0% 🥉 11.2% Avg 7.9 ⚡ 68 longshot wins
5
JAMALAMADINGDONG
1.9%
RPR 73
Form 3--2
Off 35d
lbs 119
ML 4-1
J GOLIBRZUCH S
T YATES MICHAEL
By CAJUN BREEZE Out of LA DI DA LAURA
🥇 1.9% 🥈 7.1% 🥉 16.5% Avg 5.6
6
STEEL VERDICT
19.1%
lbs 119
ML 9-2
J RODRIGUEZ ISRAEL O
T ARRIAGADA JUAN
By CURLIN Out of CLASSIQUE
🥇 19.1% 🥈 30.9% 🥉 40.8% Avg 5.1
7
NEO ZAPPER
10.9%
RPR 78
Form 3-2--3223
Off 15d
lbs 112
ML 6-1
J GONZALEZ CESAR
T DOBBER ARNOUD W
By NEOLITHIC Out of SWEET ZAPPER
🥇 10.9% 🥈 34.4% 🥉 59.1% Avg 3.3
8
CUDDY'S LUCKY
22.3%
lbs 119
ML 7-2
J MARIN SAMUEL
T O'CONNELL KATHLEEN
By CAJUN BREEZE Out of MOLLIE'S MAGIC
🥇 22.3% 🥈 36.4% 🥉 45.7% Avg 4.6
9
ON THE ROX
8.9%
lbs 119
ML 8-1
J FERRER J C
T HARDESTY LESLIELYN N
By CATHOLIC BOY Out of SOLID SENDER
🥇 8.9% 🥈 16.4% 🥉 22.9% Avg 6.6
10
THIRSTED
10.0%
RPR 74
Form 1121--2-
Off 21d
lbs 119
ML 30-1
J MARTINEZ GADDIEL A
T SIMONE MICHAEL V
By FROSTED Out of DELIGHTFUL MOMENT
🥇 10.0% 🥈 20.8% 🥉 33.5% Avg 4.9 ⚡ 199 longshot wins
11
PIC THREE
3.2%
lbs 119
ML 20-1
J MENESES MARCOS
T SMITH ROBERT G
By THREE RULES Out of SHIRLEY'S PIC
🥇 3.2% 🥈 7.4% 🥉 11.0% Avg 8.0 ⚡ 64 longshot wins

📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings

Horses ordered by Brisnet Speed Rating (BSR) — the higher the BSR, the faster the horse has run. This is Brisnet's primary selection indicator.
BSR Rank Horse Avg BSR (top-3) ML Odds Days Off Form Sim Win %
1 7 NEO ZAPPER SPEED LEADER 78 6-1 15d --3223 10.9%
2 10 THIRSTED 74 30-1 21d 21--2- 10.0%
3 5 JAMALAMADINGDONG 73.7 4-1 35d 3--2 1.9%
4 3 MO BEACH TIME 72 8-1 37d ---1-- 2.7%
5 2 GUN POLICY 44 12-1 35d -- 0.8%
6 1 KING MORPHEUS — First starter 6-1 — — 16.9%
7 4 VALIANT SUPRISE — First starter 20-1 — — 3.4%
8 6 STEEL VERDICT — First starter 9-2 — — 19.1%
9 8 CUDDY'S LUCKY — First starter 7-2 — — 22.3%
10 9 ON THE ROX — First starter 8-1 — — 8.9%
11 11 PIC THREE — First starter 20-1 — — 3.2%

BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.

Simulation Results

2,000 runs  ·  Engine v3-trajectory-bounce  ·  2026-05-21 16:53:34
# Horse Win % ↕ Place % ↕ Show % ↕ Avg Finish ↕ Best ↕ Worst ↕ Base Score ↕ BSR Rank ⚡ Longshots
1 8 CUDDY'S LUCKY
22.30%
36.40% 45.65% 4.61 1 11 77.7 #9 ▲ —
2 6 STEEL VERDICT
19.10%
30.85% 40.80% 5.11 1 11 74.1 #8 ▲ —
3 1 KING MORPHEUS
16.90%
28.20% 36.50% 5.36 1 11 72.9 #6 ▲ —
4 7 NEO ZAPPER
10.90%
34.35% 59.10% 3.31 1 9 81.1 #1 ▼ —
5 10 THIRSTED
9.95%
20.75% 33.50% 4.91 1 11 74.2 #2 ▼ ⚡ 199
6 9 ON THE ROX
8.90%
16.40% 22.90% 6.57 1 11 64.0 #10 ▲ —
7 4 VALIANT SUPRISE
3.40%
6.95% 11.15% 7.94 1 11 54.2 #7 ≈ ⚡ 68
8 11 PIC THREE
3.20%
7.40% 11.00% 7.97 1 11 53.0 #11 ▲ ⚡ 64
9 3 MO BEACH TIME
2.65%
9.10% 19.15% 5.30 1 11 72.7 #4 ▼ —
10 5 JAMALAMADINGDONG
1.90%
7.10% 16.50% 5.62 1 11 70.9 #3 ▼ —
11 2 GUN POLICY
0.80%
2.50% 3.75% 9.32 1 11 41.4 #5 ▼ ⚡ 16

Win % = (times horse won ÷ 2,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.

🎯 Value Rankings

All horses sorted by Value Rating (Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied%) — highest value at the top. Horses at 10/1+ are flagged as longshots.
# Horse ML Odds ML Implied % Sim Win % Place % Show % Value Rating ⚡ Longshot Wins
1 10 THIRSTED LONGSHOT BEST VALUE 30-1 3.2%
9.95%
20.75% 33.50% 🔥 3.08x ⚡ 199
2 1 KING MORPHEUS 6-1 14.3%
16.90%
28.20% 36.50% 1.18x —
3 6 STEEL VERDICT 9-2 18.2%
19.10%
30.85% 40.80% 1.05x —
4 8 CUDDY'S LUCKY 7-2 22.2%
22.30%
36.40% 45.65% 1.00x —
5 9 ON THE ROX 8-1 11.1%
8.90%
16.40% 22.90% 0.80x —
6 7 NEO ZAPPER 6-1 14.3%
10.90%
34.35% 59.10% 0.76x —
7 4 VALIANT SUPRISE LONGSHOT 20-1 4.8%
3.40%
6.95% 11.15% 0.71x ⚡ 68
8 11 PIC THREE LONGSHOT 20-1 4.8%
3.20%
7.40% 11.00% 0.67x ⚡ 64
9 3 MO BEACH TIME 8-1 11.1%
2.65%
9.10% 19.15% 0.24x —
10 5 JAMALAMADINGDONG 4-1 20%
1.90%
7.10% 16.50% 0.10x —
11 2 GUN POLICY LONGSHOT 12-1 7.7%
0.80%
2.50% 3.75% 0.10x ⚡ 16

Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.

🎲 Pure Chance

If every horse had an equal shot — 11 horses, ~9.1% each

Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.

# Horse Chance Win% Sim Win% Edge Chance Bar
6 STEEL VERDICT 12.1% 19.1% +7.0%
4 VALIANT SUPRISE 12.1% 3.4% -8.7%
2 GUN POLICY 12.1% 0.8% -11.3%
3 MO BEACH TIME 10.3% 2.7% -7.6%
10 THIRSTED 8.8% 10.0% +1.2%
5 JAMALAMADINGDONG 8.4% 1.9% -6.5%
11 PIC THREE 8.2% 3.2% -5.0%
7 NEO ZAPPER 8.0% 10.9% +2.9%
1 KING MORPHEUS 7.9% 16.9% +9.0%
8 CUDDY'S LUCKY 7.5% 22.3% +14.8%
9 ON THE ROX 6.3% 8.9% +2.6%

Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.

🎯 Suggested Picks

Based on 2,000 simulation runs
🥇 Top Win Picks
  1. 8 CUDDY'S LUCKY 22.3% 7-2
  2. 6 STEEL VERDICT 19.1% 9-2
  3. 1 KING MORPHEUS 16.9% 6-1
🥈 Top Place Picks
  1. 8 CUDDY'S LUCKY 36.4% 7-2
  2. 7 NEO ZAPPER 34.4% 6-1
  3. 6 STEEL VERDICT 30.9% 9-2
🥉 Top Show Picks
  1. 7 NEO ZAPPER 59.1% 6-1
  2. 8 CUDDY'S LUCKY 45.7% 7-2
  3. 6 STEEL VERDICT 40.8% 9-2
📋 Exacta Box
8-6-1
Box top 3 — covers all combinations
8 CUDDY'S LUCKY 6 STEEL VERDICT 1 KING MORPHEUS
🎲 Trifecta
8-6-1
Straight: 1st–2nd–3rd by sim rank
8 → 6-1-7
Key CUDDY'S LUCKY to win, wheel next 3 for 2nd/3rd
💫 Superfecta
8-6-1-7
Box top 4 — covers all 1st–4th combos
8/6 / 8/6 / 1/7/10 / 1/7/10
Key top 2 in 1st & 2nd; use next 3 in 3rd & 4th

🏆 Actual Results

#ProgHorse Finish Margin Odds Sim Predicted
1 5 JAMALAMADINGDONG — — Sim #10 (1.9% win)
2 11 PIC THREE — — Sim #8 (3.2% win)
3 7 NEO ZAPPER — — Sim #4 (10.9% win)
4 10 THIRSTED — — Sim #5 (10.0% win)
5 8 CUDDY'S LUCKY — — Sim #1 (22.3% win)
— 1 KING MORPHEUS — — Sim #3 (16.9% win)
— 2 GUN POLICY — — Sim #11 (0.8% win)
— 3 MO BEACH TIME — — Sim #9 (2.7% win)
— 4 VALIANT SUPRISE — — Sim #7 (3.4% win)
— 6 STEEL VERDICT — — Sim #2 (19.1% win)
— 9 ON THE ROX — — Sim #6 (8.9% win)

Official winner: JAMALAMADINGDONG

✏️ Edit Results
Prog Horse Finish Position Margin (lengths) Final Odds
5 JAMALAMADINGDONG
11 PIC THREE
7 NEO ZAPPER
10 THIRSTED
8 CUDDY'S LUCKY
1 KING MORPHEUS
2 GUN POLICY
3 MO BEACH TIME
4 VALIANT SUPRISE
6 STEEL VERDICT
9 ON THE ROX