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DGENTRIES 11TH SAR JUNE 6 8F G1000000 1 BUN 1 MILE DIRT THOROUGHBRED OPEN 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP GRADE 1 STAKE PURSE $1000000 (05:32) (7 )

🏟 Saratoga 📅 2026-06-06 📏 1M Dirt MtropltH-G1 💰 $1,000,000
📡 Fetch History

Field — 7 Runners

1
NYSOS
3.4%
RPR 104
Form 212212211
Off 112d
lbs 126
ML 9-5
J PRAT FLAVIEN
T BAFFERT BOB
By NYQUIST Out of ZETTA Z
🥇 3.4% 🥈 12.3% 🥉 30.3% Avg 4.2
2
VIBE
0.3%
RPR 91
Form 111-
Off 35d
lbs 118
ML 15-1
J SAEZ LUIS
T PLETCHER TODD A
By INTO MISCHIEF Out of NONNA MIA
🥇 0.3% 🥈 1.3% 🥉 3.2% Avg 6.2 ⚡ 27 longshot wins
3
ANTIQUARIAN
11.5%
RPR 105
Form 22-2112121
Off 34d
lbs 124
ML 6-1
J VELAZQUEZ J R
T PLETCHER TODD A
By PRESERVATIONIST Out of LIFETIME MEMORY
🥇 11.5% 🥈 24.5% 🥉 40.0% Avg 4.0
4
SAUDI CROWN
23.0%
RPR 101
Form 11-111111-
Off 63d
lbs 123
ML 8-1
J ORTIZ IRAD JR
T COX BRAD H
By ALWAYS DREAMING Out of NEW NARRATION
🥇 23.0% 🥈 30.1% 🥉 36.8% Avg 4.5
5
RATED BY MERIT
2.3%
RPR 105
Form -11111
Off 63d
lbs 119
ML 10-1
J DAVIS DYLAN
T BROWN CHAD C
By BATTALION RUNNER Out of BANNER WAVING
🥇 2.3% 🥈 8.7% 🥉 24.2% Avg 4.4 ⚡ 231 longshot wins
6
KNIGHTSBRIDGE
34.1%
RPR 104
Form -11112311
Off 35d
lbs 121
ML 7-2
J ALVARADO JUNIOR
T MOTT WILLIAM I
By NYQUIST Out of TYBURN BROOK
🥇 34.1% 🥈 66.5% 🥉 85.7% Avg 2.2
7
JOURNALISM
25.5%
RPR 109
Form 33--23-221
Off 49d
lbs 125
ML 5-2
J ORTIZ JOSE L
T MCCARTHY MICHAEL W
By CURLIN Out of MOPOTISM
🥇 25.5% 🥈 56.7% 🥉 79.8% Avg 2.5

📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings

Horses ordered by Brisnet Speed Rating (BSR) — the higher the BSR, the faster the horse has run. This is Brisnet's primary selection indicator.
BSR Rank Horse Avg BSR (top-3) ML Odds Days Off Form Sim Win %
1 7 JOURNALISM SPEED LEADER 109 5-2 49d 23-221 25.5%
2 3 ANTIQUARIAN 105.7 6-1 34d 112121 11.5%
3 5 RATED BY MERIT 105.7 10-1 63d -11111 2.3%
4 1 NYSOS 104.3 9-5 112d 212211 3.4%
5 6 KNIGHTSBRIDGE 104 7-2 35d 112311 34.1%
6 4 SAUDI CROWN 101.7 8-1 63d 11111- 23.0%
7 2 VIBE 91.7 15-1 35d 111- 0.3%

BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.

Simulation Results

10,000 runs  ·  Engine v3-trajectory-bounce  ·  2026-07-21 21:06:32
# Horse Win % ↕ Place % ↕ Show % ↕ Avg Finish ↕ Best ↕ Worst ↕ Base Score ↕ BSR Rank ⚡ Longshots
1 6 KNIGHTSBRIDGE
34.06%
66.50% 85.66% 2.21 1 7 122.2 #5 ▲ —
2 7 JOURNALISM
25.51%
56.69% 79.76% 2.47 1 7 120.9 #1 ≈ —
3 4 SAUDI CROWN
22.95%
30.07% 36.84% 4.48 1 7 109.2 #6 ▲ —
4 3 ANTIQUARIAN
11.49%
24.46% 40.01% 4.01 1 7 113.8 #2 ≈ —
5 1 NYSOS
3.41%
12.31% 30.29% 4.17 1 7 113.5 #4 ≈ —
6 5 RATED BY MERIT
2.31%
8.65% 24.22% 4.42 1 7 112.5 #3 ▼ ⚡ 231
7 2 VIBE
0.27%
1.32% 3.22% 6.25 1 7 100.2 #7 ≈ ⚡ 27

Win % = (times horse won ÷ 10,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.

🎯 Value Rankings

All horses sorted by Value Rating (Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied%) — highest value at the top. Horses at 10/1+ are flagged as longshots.
# Horse ML Odds ML Implied % Sim Win % Place % Show % Value Rating ⚡ Longshot Wins
1 4 SAUDI CROWN 8-1 11.1%
22.95%
30.07% 36.84% 🔥 2.07x —
2 6 KNIGHTSBRIDGE 7-2 22.2%
34.06%
66.50% 85.66% ✅ 1.53x —
3 7 JOURNALISM 5-2 28.6%
25.51%
56.69% 79.76% 0.89x —
4 3 ANTIQUARIAN 6-1 14.3%
11.49%
24.46% 40.01% 0.80x —
5 5 RATED BY MERIT LONGSHOT BEST VALUE 10-1 9.1%
2.31%
8.65% 24.22% 0.25x ⚡ 231
6 1 NYSOS 9-5 35.7%
3.41%
12.31% 30.29% 0.10x —
7 2 VIBE LONGSHOT 15-1 6.3%
0.27%
1.32% 3.22% 0.04x ⚡ 27

Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.

🎲 Pure Chance

If every horse had an equal shot — 7 horses, ~14.3% each

Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.

# Horse Chance Win% Sim Win% Edge Chance Bar
7 JOURNALISM 16.1% 25.5% +9.4%
5 RATED BY MERIT 14.8% 2.3% -12.5%
1 NYSOS 14.1% 3.4% -10.7%
4 SAUDI CROWN 14.0% 23.0% +9.0%
6 KNIGHTSBRIDGE 13.9% 34.1% +20.2%
2 VIBE 12.7% 0.3% -12.4%
3 ANTIQUARIAN 11.6% 11.5% -0.1%

Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.

🎯 Suggested Picks

Based on 10,000 simulation runs
🥇 Top Win Picks
  1. 6 KNIGHTSBRIDGE 34.1% 7-2
  2. 7 JOURNALISM 25.5% 5-2
  3. 4 SAUDI CROWN 23.0% 8-1
🥈 Top Place Picks
  1. 6 KNIGHTSBRIDGE 66.5% 7-2
  2. 7 JOURNALISM 56.7% 5-2
  3. 4 SAUDI CROWN 30.1% 8-1
🥉 Top Show Picks
  1. 6 KNIGHTSBRIDGE 85.7% 7-2
  2. 7 JOURNALISM 79.8% 5-2
  3. 3 ANTIQUARIAN 40.0% 6-1
📋 Exacta Box
6-7-4
Box top 3 — covers all combinations
6 KNIGHTSBRIDGE 7 JOURNALISM 4 SAUDI CROWN
🎲 Trifecta
6-7-4
Straight: 1st–2nd–3rd by sim rank
6 → 7-4-3
Key KNIGHTSBRIDGE to win, wheel next 3 for 2nd/3rd
💫 Superfecta
6-7-4-3
Box top 4 — covers all 1st–4th combos
6/7 / 6/7 / 4/3/1 / 4/3/1
Key top 2 in 1st & 2nd; use next 3 in 3rd & 4th

📋 Enter Actual Results

+ Enter Finish Positions
Prog Horse Finish Position Margin (lengths) Final Odds
1 NYSOS
2 VIBE
3 ANTIQUARIAN
4 SAUDI CROWN
5 RATED BY MERIT
6 KNIGHTSBRIDGE
7 JOURNALISM