DGENTRIES 13TH SAR JUNE 6 10F I2000000 1 BON 1 1/4 MILES DIRT THOROUGHBRED OPEN 3 YEAR OLDS GRADE 1 STAKE PURSE $2000000 (07:04) (9 )
Field — 9 Runners
📊 Brisnet Speed Figure Rankings
| BSR Rank | Horse | Avg BSR (top-3) | ML Odds | Days Off | Form | Sim Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 CHIEF WALLABEE SPEED LEADER | 99.7 | 3-1 | 35d | -1-1 | 46.3% |
| 2 | 7 COMMANDMENT | 99.7 | 6-1 | 35d | -3331- | 24.2% |
| 3 | 4 RENEGADE | 97.3 | 2-1 | 35d | -----3 | 14.0% |
| 4 | 8 EMERGING MARKET | 97 | 6-1 | 35d | 213 | 1.9% |
| 5 | 9 GOLDEN TEMPO | 96.3 | 9-2 | 35d | ----1 | 11.4% |
| 6 | 2 POWERSHIFT | 91.3 | 12-1 | 35d | 131 | 1.1% |
| 7 | 6 GROWTH EQUITY | 91.3 | 12-1 | 28d | 3122 | 1.1% |
| 8 | 5 OTTINHO | 87.7 | 20-1 | 63d | -213 | 0.0% |
| 9 | 1 VITRUVIAN MAN | 84.7 | 30-1 | 63d | 2----3 | 0.1% |
BSR (Brisnet Speed Rating): averaged across the horse's best 3 recent races. A BSR of 100+ is elite; 80–95 is competitive; below 70 is a lightly-raced or slower horse. Horses showing — are first-time starters with no recorded speed figures.
Simulation Results
| # | Horse | Win % ↕ | Place % ↕ | Show % ↕ | Avg Finish ↕ | Best ↕ | Worst ↕ | Base Score ↕ | BSR Rank | ⚡ Longshots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 CHIEF WALLABEE | 75.88% | 90.34% | 1.92 | 1 | 8 | 114.7 | #1 ≈ | — | |
| 2 | 7 COMMANDMENT | 48.43% | 67.82% | 2.91 | 1 | 9 | 110.7 | #2 ≈ | — | |
| 3 | 4 RENEGADE | 27.74% | 42.84% | 4.15 | 1 | 9 | 106.1 | #3 ≈ | — | |
| 4 | 9 GOLDEN TEMPO | 30.91% | 54.16% | 3.51 | 1 | 9 | 108.1 | #5 ≈ | — | |
| 5 | 8 EMERGING MARKET | 7.93% | 20.37% | 4.90 | 1 | 9 | 103.1 | #4 ≈ | — | |
| 6 | 2 POWERSHIFT | 3.86% | 9.38% | 6.12 | 1 | 9 | 98.2 | #6 ≈ | ⚡ 109 | |
| 7 | 6 GROWTH EQUITY | 4.82% | 13.45% | 5.34 | 1 | 9 | 101.4 | #7 ≈ | ⚡ 107 | |
| 8 | 1 VITRUVIAN MAN | 0.33% | 0.96% | 8.32 | 1 | 9 | 85.7 | #9 ≈ | ⚡ 7 | |
| 9 | 5 OTTINHO | 0.10% | 0.68% | 7.83 | 1 | 9 | 90.5 | #8 ≈ | ⚡ 1 |
Win % = (times horse won ÷ 10,000 runs) × 100. Formula per run: Score = BSR·w + Form·3·w + Freshness + Post + Surface + Distance + Jockey + Trainer + Trajectory + Bounce + Condition + BeatLengths + N(0,σ) + DayFactor. Each factor is weighted by the adaptive calibration engine (engine v3-trajectory-bounce). BSR Rank = Brisnet's raw speed figure order; ▲ means simulator rates higher than BSR, ▼ lower, ≈ within 2 spots. ⚡ longshot wins = won while carrying 10/1+ morning line odds.
🎯 Value Rankings
| # | Horse | ML Odds | ML Implied % | Sim Win % | Place % | Show % | Value Rating | ⚡ Longshot Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 CHIEF WALLABEE | 3-1 | 25% | 75.88% | 90.34% | ✅ 1.85x | — | |
| 2 | 7 COMMANDMENT | 6-1 | 14.3% | 48.43% | 67.82% | ✅ 1.69x | — | |
| 3 | 9 GOLDEN TEMPO | 9-2 | 18.2% | 30.91% | 54.16% | 0.63x | — | |
| 4 | 4 RENEGADE | 2-1 | 33.3% | 27.74% | 42.84% | 0.42x | — | |
| 5 | 2 POWERSHIFT LONGSHOT BEST VALUE | 12-1 | 7.7% | 3.86% | 9.38% | 0.14x | ⚡ 109 | |
| 6 | 6 GROWTH EQUITY LONGSHOT | 12-1 | 7.7% | 4.82% | 13.45% | 0.14x | ⚡ 107 | |
| 7 | 8 EMERGING MARKET | 6-1 | 14.3% | 7.93% | 20.37% | 0.13x | — | |
| 8 | 1 VITRUVIAN MAN LONGSHOT | 30-1 | 3.2% | 0.33% | 0.96% | 0.02x | ⚡ 7 | |
| 9 | 5 OTTINHO LONGSHOT | 20-1 | 4.8% | 0.10% | 0.68% | 0.00x | ⚡ 1 |
Value Rating = Sim Win% ÷ ML Implied Win%. 🔥 2.0x+ = strong value; ✅ 1.5–1.99x = solid edge; 1.0–1.49x = slight edge; below 1x = overbet by the market. LONGSHOT badge = 10/1 morning line or longer. BEST VALUE = top-rated longshot by value.
🎲 Pure Chance
Random noise added so the numbers aren't all identical. Compare Sim Win% vs Chance Win% to see which horses the simulator likes vs pure luck.
| # | Horse | Chance Win% | Sim Win% | Edge | Chance Bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | EMERGING MARKET | 10.4% | 1.9% | -8.5% | |
| 1 | VITRUVIAN MAN | 9.8% | 0.1% | -9.7% | |
| 3 | CHIEF WALLABEE | 9.3% | 46.3% | +37.0% | |
| 2 | POWERSHIFT | 9.0% | 1.1% | -7.9% | |
| 7 | COMMANDMENT | 8.9% | 24.2% | +15.3% | |
| 5 | OTTINHO | 8.9% | 0.0% | -8.9% | |
| 9 | GOLDEN TEMPO | 8.8% | 11.4% | +2.6% | |
| 6 | GROWTH EQUITY | 8.8% | 1.1% | -7.7% | |
| 4 | RENEGADE | 8.2% | 14.0% | +5.8% |
Edge = Sim Win% minus Chance Win%. Positive = simulator favours this horse over random luck; negative = simulator thinks this horse is worse than a coin flip.
🎯 Suggested Picks
- 3 CHIEF WALLABEE 46.3% 3-1
- 7 COMMANDMENT 24.2% 6-1
- 4 RENEGADE 14.0% 2-1
- 3 CHIEF WALLABEE 75.9% 3-1
- 7 COMMANDMENT 48.4% 6-1
- 9 GOLDEN TEMPO 30.9% 9-2
- 3 CHIEF WALLABEE 90.3% 3-1
- 7 COMMANDMENT 67.8% 6-1
- 9 GOLDEN TEMPO 54.2% 9-2